Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "China" during July Press Conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44a89ce9742db829daf57b23e39cf08ad729ecc64158e6dbf1e0b3514eb162b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,081
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,006
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,081 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 73c | 1,589$1,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.45 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…fa04backed No | 75c | 1,398$1,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.42 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 24c | 1,339$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.14 | 104 | 20.2%21 W · 83 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6030…5e0fbacked Yes | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 24c | 638$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.64 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba90…99b9backed Yes | 25c | 506.65$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c8…5ababacked No | 79c | 500$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.03 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 27c | 380$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 77c | 379.58$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.39 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 23c | 299.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4aa…1961backed Yes | 25c | 273.73$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710f…32e9backed Yes | 30c | 236.67$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20b0…5f03backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x410c…b808backed Yes | 28c | 179.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 25c | 172.59$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 73c | 158.61$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.37 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 23c | 150$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87b5…df63backed Yes | 11c | 139.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bd…b9a1backed Yes | 26c | 138.46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…d61cbacked Yes | 26c | 132.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ef…5289backed No | 76c | 131.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…9c77backed No | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked No | 79c | 126.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.82 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbab…2cd0backed Yes | 22c | 116.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed7a…c24bbacked Yes | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +105.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 76c | 100.78$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.19 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +4.9wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…e12bbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec52…59e8backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed No | 74c | 97.97$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 72c | 91$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…0a49backed No | 75c | 90$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 64cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x48c6…d483backed Yes | 25c | 90$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -43%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 25c | 85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab1…7df3backed No | 80c | 80.72$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 60cpaid | -51%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed No | 73c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2398…3f89backed Yes | 26c | 76.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f86…5f22backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1511…30babacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 76c | 73.16$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe69f…82a7backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x101c…4392backed Yes | 23c | 69.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b3…ac3dbacked Yes | 29c | 67.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecf6…8145backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff2c…ecd3backed Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc389…ec7dbacked Yes | 29c | 50.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 28c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9399…e1f8backed No | 72c | 41.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3b…a2d3backed Yes | 27c | 40.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x765c…5485backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc30c…b571backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf960…ba50backed Yes | 34c | 36.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked No | 65c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e74…1165backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 70cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a61…a2e4backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c0…206cbacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 73c | 22.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba4…0caabacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ab…9aa1backed No | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 57cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 67c | 18.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +5.4wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "China" during July Press Conference?this page
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Downbeat" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Employment / Unemployment" 20+ times during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Obvious" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Renovation" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Spike" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Step/Stepping Down" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Uncertainty" 7+ times during July Press Conference?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.