Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during July Press Conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5613f009dfb3248e39e83dbb4b805453454d7619e23fcdb6f96faa5cbc209c41
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $225,703
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $203,494
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $225,703 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 4c | 17,160$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.26 | 66 | 16.7%11 W · 55 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02f5…18a3backed No | 3c | 11,481$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 5c | 7,927$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.47 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +276.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9212…2ff6backed No | 9c | 7,805$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.76 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +108.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 2c | 6,165$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.61 | 78 | 3.8%3 W · 75 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -94.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24b1…48eebacked No | 2c | 4,900$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.3 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 2c | 4,552$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.36 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked No | 7c | 4,022$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.43 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked No | 5c | 3,919$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.09 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 1c | 3,783$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 96 | 0%0 W · 96 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 6c | 3,500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89ae…4b0abacked No | 3c | 3,162$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.54 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20f9…4cdbbacked No | 2c | 3,000$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.71 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed No | 2c | 2,977$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.19 | 60 | 25%15 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked No | 3c | 2,794$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.92 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e1…3d78backed No | 2c | 2,524$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.72 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5b…d4ecbacked No | 2c | 2,499$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | +111%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 2,426$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.32 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 4c | 2,255$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed No | 2c | 2,000$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa510…1f80backed No | 4c | 2,000$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2a…e415backed No | 4c | 1,798$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed No | 4c | 1,704$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +27%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 2c | 1,587$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88d0…4e56backed No | 2c | 1,579$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf00…6767backed No | 5c | 1,445$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9853…e86abacked No | 3c | 1,401$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 2c | 1,395$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb9…54cfbacked No | 3c | 1,377$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…7802backed No | 3c | 1,353$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe65f…a749backed No | 3c | 1,285$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 2c | 1,220$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -96.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab12…83c8backed No | 4c | 1,201$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed No | 3c | 1,177$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bd…b9a1backed No | 2c | 1,112$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5348…e4ffbacked No | 2c | 1,103$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91b3…f991backed No | 2c | 1,071$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked No | 3c | 1,069$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 3c | 1,042$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +214.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed No | 6c | 1,041$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.49 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 3c | 1,009$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b22…acb2backed No | 2c | 937.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52f9…e1c7backed No | 4c | 930.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 2c | 920.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 104 | 20.2%21 W · 83 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e34…c674backed No | 2c | 906.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e0…cee7backed No | 3c | 904.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…a15cbacked No | 3c | 893.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…5bedbacked No | 4c | 860.36$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d12…58a2backed No | 3c | 706.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…9e8abacked No | 3c | 697.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x522c…48f3backed No | 3c | 678.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x226d…f49ebacked No | 3c | 670.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a02…8ab0backed No | 4c | 612.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2398…3f89backed No | 3c | 608.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x361d…f2d9backed No | 4c | 601.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb09…0f04backed No | 3c | 599.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4655…4825backed No | 3c | 571.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf6e…7e4fbacked No | 4c | 570.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked No | 3c | 564$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…8fbabacked No | 2c | 534.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb07f…4000backed No | 4c | 476.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefda…8dfbbacked No | 4c | 454.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d12…bdf6backed No | 4c | 444.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd13f…b2e0backed No | 2c | 417.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85cf…51e8backed No | 4c | 400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…0748backed No | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4e…62d5backed No | 5c | 395.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7de6…fae0backed No | 3c | 357.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba90…99b9backed No | 4c | 323.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75f8…5deebacked No | 3c | 312.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db4…b6fabacked No | 4c | 290$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd124…b1c6backed No | 4c | 266.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during July Press Conference?this page
- Will Powell say "China" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Downbeat" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Employment / Unemployment" 20+ times during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Obvious" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Renovation" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Spike" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Step/Stepping Down" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Uncertainty" 7+ times during July Press Conference?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.