Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during July Press Conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7134e4693d0ab30e5aaaeddc1f6206aebaa95ae09c086b738d09cda8d7c05046
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,563
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,967
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,563 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcdc4…a880backed Yes | 41c | 1,500$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$891.23 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef01…8315backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed No | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 33c | 999.99$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb5…7173backed No | 54c | 904.8$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 42c | 847.64$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.74 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32a4…3956backed No | 60c | 735.58$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.75 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63d4…a2f1backed No | 67c | 650.74$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked Yes | 46c | 597.24$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.99 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3c…4eb8backed No | 55c | 546.47$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 62c | 541.78$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.9 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 50c | 515.21$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.16 | 104 | 20.2%21 W · 83 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ca…1d4bbacked No | 60c | 500.75$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x226d…f49ebacked Yes | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 48c | 439.99$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.19 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe65f…a749backed No | 56c | 400$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…2db1backed No | 10c | 387.03$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…70efbacked Yes | 38c | 355$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.1 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…1ab2backed No | 35c | 350$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…71b6backed Yes | 51c | 278.08$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.22 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e4…4921backed No | 62c | 255.69$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.23 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2918…9f55backed No | 58c | 220$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes | 46c | 216.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.84 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4227…1eeabacked Yes | 50c | 201.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31a…adffbacked No | 66c | 201.45$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d40…ec52backed No | 68c | 200$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bd…b9a1backed No | 67c | 200$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…9c77backed No | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeed6…510ebacked No | 56c | 170.07$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +135.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc516…5f28backed No | 61c | 163.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed No | 23c | 160$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Yes | 39c | 155$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.55 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 41c | 153.31$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.93 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d3…11fbbacked No | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +94.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…7504backed No | 50c | 147.86$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe415…db17backed Yes | 43c | 138.13$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 51c | 132.59$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.62 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbab…2cd0backed Yes | 45c | 126.61$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.4 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 58c | 114.08$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.73 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecf6…8145backed Yes | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cc…f848backed Yes | 46c | 108.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.13 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cd…4620backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 26cpaid | +190.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4003…5073backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdf09…63c3backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -66%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed No | 51c | 98.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 41c | 89.35$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.52 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d03…7280backed No | 57c | 86.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.53 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes | 48c | 83.81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.58 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dbc…7610backed Yes | 44c | 80$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c87…9bd4backed Yes | 37c | 64.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6072…5703backed No | 57c | 64.44$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x048a…635cbacked No | 56c | 62.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed No | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked No | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…aee5backed Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 55c | 53.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ab…9aa1backed Yes | 49c | 51.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 57cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +5.5wins | +0.21per pick | 33cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc39a…2214backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf82…c406backed No | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 56c | 44.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf356…8edcbacked Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b0…1f9abacked No | 56c | 37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e74…1165backed No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 70cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 37c | 34.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffde…219dbacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19fc…17aabacked No | 55c | 29.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…5996backed No | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca2…cc83backed No | 55c | 27.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11c4…4211backed No | 61c | 22.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb79c…f7f2backed No | 60c | 19.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during July Press Conference?this page
- Will Powell say "China" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Downbeat" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Employment / Unemployment" 20+ times during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Obvious" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Renovation" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Spike" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Step/Stepping Down" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Uncertainty" 7+ times during July Press Conference?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.