Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Downbeat" during July Press Conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb23e34a2da58c56df9644bbd392b59baff82b48e2e447dd6151e1b4c08bbe6f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,238
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,150
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,238 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x410c…b808backed Yes | 32c | 234.56$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed No | 68c | 199.98$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.99 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf812…494bbacked Yes | 34c | 192$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 29c | 149.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa147…3fccbacked No | 68c | 147.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.89 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 30c | 133.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6b…afc9backed No | 66c | 125$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa70…8f17backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1739…1263backed No | 71c | 84$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 24c | 60.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 104 | 20.2%21 W · 83 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…c8aabacked No | 75c | 60.23$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +169.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510c…4dccbacked Yes | 33c | 51.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec52…59e8backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked No | 67c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dbc…7610backed Yes | 26c | 39.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9399…e1f8backed No | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked No | 65c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e74…1165backed No | 75c | 26.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 70cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 67c | 18.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +5.4wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbbab…2cd0backed No | 67c | 16.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Downbeat" during July Press Conference?this page
- Will Powell say "China" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Employment / Unemployment" 20+ times during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Obvious" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Renovation" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Spike" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Step/Stepping Down" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Uncertainty" 7+ times during July Press Conference?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.