Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump pick Kash Patel for Director of the FBI?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec93cd07629086504dd8f75c561bf38db1267cd0ae85d08f17fb6b70fd24cedf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $140,035
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $138,886
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $140,035 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 161 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x95a3…046ebacked No | 6c | 10,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.22per pick | 9cpaid | +197.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 38c | 9,908$3,809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,809.14 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4124…5827backed Yes | 46c | 6,749$3,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,653.95 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed No | 38c | 6,228$2,367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,367.18 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked Yes | 66c | 5,843$3,848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,995.02 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -69%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0537…5b0fbacked No | 4c | 5,042$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.17 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes | 67c | 5,016$3,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,650.52 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +9.9wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5b…b95ebacked Yes | 49c | 4,975$2,424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,550.83 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcefa…bef8backed Yes | 51c | 4,730$2,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,319.23 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 28c | 4,275$1,192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,083.07 | 64 | 32.8%21 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…dee1backed No | 53c | 3,986$2,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,102.66 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 32c | 3,305$1,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,243.78 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Yes | 70c | 3,072$2,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$922.08 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 53c | 3,035$1,616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,419.65 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…a960backed Yes | 64c | 2,345$1,508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837.3 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 42c | 2,267$947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,320.36 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x946f…6a27backed Yes | 26c | 2,245$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,659.2 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes | 56c | 2,068$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$917.49 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32d0…2418backed No | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.99 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa218…94cdbacked No | 60c | 1,956$1,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,176.78 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48da…6d88backed Yes | 55c | 1,821$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e8…cc6cbacked Yes | 35c | 1,691$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,095.07 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Yes | 41c | 1,495$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$885.37 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed No | 62c | 1,342$833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$833.02 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…9bbabacked Yes | 30c | 1,118$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784.77 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3709…3d7ebacked Yes | 41c | 1,115$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.85 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…23d8backed Yes | 53c | 1,102$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.8 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e4…b676backed No | 57c | 1,084$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.17 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 46c | 1,062$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.78 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde97…e43ebacked No | 56c | 1,000$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.84 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa88d…221cbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 49c | 975.64$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.63 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x577c…7dd1backed Yes | 53c | 961$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.01 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 941.24$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.97 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa727…8289backed No | 37c | 699.35$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.73 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Yes | 48c | 682.57$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.94 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb544…0977backed Yes | 51c | 674.05$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.05 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +30%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa555…2d6fbacked Yes | 75c | 666.82$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.82 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…fa38backed Yes | 46c | 662.91$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.4 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc545…dc80backed No | 80c | 605.6$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.48 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 70c | 568.6$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.8 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 39c | 564.85$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.44 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6495…2884backed Yes | 54c | 560.3$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.3 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…7004backed Yes | 57c | 556.32$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.82 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c51…827ebacked Yes | 48c | 499.99$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e6…50aebacked Yes | 5c | 498.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.7 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +108%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Yes | 26c | 498$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.59 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 42c | 484.78$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.64 | 125 | 31.2%39 W · 86 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8163…e061backed Yes | 34c | 450$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.5 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd7…0643backed Yes | 46c | 428.26$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.31 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…2e92backed Yes | 31c | 364.41$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.88 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…54d6backed Yes | 31c | 348$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.12 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaef…6234backed Yes | 40c | 335.43$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.96 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 27c | 330$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.76 | 135 | 56.3%76 W · 59 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x96ad…683cbacked No | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a5…8ce6backed No | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed Yes | 59c | 300$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf568…cc37backed Yes | 55c | 294.77$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d2…53c9backed Yes | 26c | 288.28$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.33 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.27per pick | 50cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 52c | 285.77$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.77 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x686a…966bbacked Yes | 20c | 281$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.8 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +7.5wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +123.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Yes | 75c | 280$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.8 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97c1…3d36backed No | 55c | 274.35$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.8 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed No | 45c | 274.13$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.36 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbef4…ca74backed Yes | 62c | 273.83$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.76 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 44c | 272.59$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.1 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bec…951abacked Yes | 55c | 252$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.17 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 44c | 249.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff3e…c6e3backed Yes | 43c | 241$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.83 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +109.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6d…f860backed Yes | 54c | 238.29$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.94 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 55c | 231$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.54 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd592…9ed9backed No | 45c | 229.46$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.55 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7c…b146backed Yes | 67c | 223.88$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.88 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x928f…9c61backed Yes | 57c | 213.26$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5799…5f40backed Yes | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6615…665dbacked Yes | 74c | 203.55$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe97b…b2eabacked Yes | 49c | 200$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.6 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f60…6b0abacked Yes | 71c | 200$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb281…f5d5backed Yes | 39c | 196.47$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +157.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 36c | 194.72$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.74 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba2…4f27backed Yes | 56c | 179.84$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.13 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf162…b6b5backed Yes | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x089f…3bccbacked Yes | 60c | 170.38$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.38 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +3.5wins | +0.32per pick | 59cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed Yes | 37c | 161.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.38 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd96b…fa60backed Yes | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +180.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x030e…20ebbacked Yes | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8e…66bfbacked Yes | 47c | 154.85$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x593c…72debacked Yes | 52c | 153.96$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.96 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8140…b92fbacked No | 39c | 151.73$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…cb50backed Yes | 62c | 150$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2286…c31fbacked Yes | 63c | 150$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50a6…31b9backed Yes | 58c | 150$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.54 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba0d…1fd0backed No | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 76c | 134.8$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d1…7beebacked Yes | 55c | 130$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08c1…28f7backed No | 45c | 123.76$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42dd…0024backed Yes | 34c | 115.09$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.96 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabe9…09b5backed Yes | 22c | 113.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.6 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb901…a37dbacked Yes | 57c | 113.3$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked No | 44c | 112.33$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.43 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump pick Kash Patel for Director of the FBI?this page
- Will Trump pick Mike Rogers for Director of the FBI?No won
- Will Trump pick Andrew Bailey for Director of the FBI?No won
- Will Trump pick Ken Paxton for Director of the FBI?No won
- Will Trump pick Steve Bannon for Director of the FBI?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.