Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump pick Mike Rogers for Director of the FBI?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6b7fe9710a07ecebd460bfa42cb911556dd26860d9756b05db32ae0fd30357e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,774
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,616
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,774 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes | 4c | 4,875$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.92 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 14c | 1,820$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.92 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 19c | 1,705$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.32 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 5c | 1,107$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 125 | 31.2%39 W · 86 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed Yes | 7c | 805.88$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.25 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 22c | 522.62$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.5 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…23d8backed No | 12c | 500$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 6c | 460.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed No | 64c | 418.75$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.75 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 8c | 400$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed Yes | 26c | 321.35$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.97 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 4c | 295.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7307…cbc3backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 23c | 284.71$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.26 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a70…95ddbacked Yes | 12c | 270$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d4…9dafbacked Yes | 15c | 265$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed Yes | 11c | 262.46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…2392backed Yes | 24c | 250$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8140…b92fbacked Yes | 7c | 229.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 6c | 184.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 124 | 4.8%6 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 68c | 135.23$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.27 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0802…81cabacked No | 77c | 125$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked Yes | 37c | 120$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed No | 64c | 116.24$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.85 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +9.9wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 77 | 24.7%19 W · 58 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd592…9ed9backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 15c | 92.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180b…d1a4backed Yes | 27c | 66.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1467…9186backed Yes | 37c | 54.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fdd…0b07backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x263d…96afbacked Yes | 37c | 47.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62f8…7737backed No | 65c | 44.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +8.5wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 34c | 42.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9bec…951abacked Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed No | 62c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 64 | 32.8%21 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump pick Mike Rogers for Director of the FBI?this page
- Will Trump pick Andrew Bailey for Director of the FBI?No won
- Will Trump pick Kash Patel for Director of the FBI?Yes won
- Will Trump pick Ken Paxton for Director of the FBI?No won
- Will Trump pick Steve Bannon for Director of the FBI?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.