Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump pick Ken Paxton for Director of the FBI?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4cab04346be0adaa3cc6d23b74632a97ed2762cc8ffd44754cdd805a34021d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,000
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,757
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,000 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45e8…cc6cbacked Yes | 6c | 9,079$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.95 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed Yes | 18c | 1,505$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.27 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 4c | 1,490$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.98 | 64 | 32.8%21 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 1c | 1,216$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 125 | 31.2%39 W · 86 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 2c | 893$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba2…4f27backed Yes | 3c | 802.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc462…5e7abacked Yes | 4c | 772.76$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 16c | 555$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.71 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 15c | 525.92$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.31 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed Yes | 9c | 497.71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.23 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1da…280ebacked Yes | 4c | 485$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc726…c39abacked Yes | 16c | 443$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.76 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42dd…0024backed Yes | 25c | 340.7$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.24 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 336.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a70…95ddbacked Yes | 5c | 329.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 7c | 196.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcefa…bef8backed Yes | 8c | 132$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…27fcbacked Yes | 13c | 120$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump pick Ken Paxton for Director of the FBI?this page
- Will Trump pick Mike Rogers for Director of the FBI?No won
- Will Trump pick Andrew Bailey for Director of the FBI?No won
- Will Trump pick Kash Patel for Director of the FBI?Yes won
- Will Trump pick Steve Bannon for Director of the FBI?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.