Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump pick Andrew Bailey for Director of the FBI?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc8ba0d5120e4f7527c2ba550399b983fc498438fdb52a5b72bcb36f4c3721da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,815
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,691
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,815 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0537…5b0fbacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5b…b95ebacked Yes | 56c | 2,218$1,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,236.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2217…7c98backed No | 50c | 1,950$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c32…99c0backed Yes | 50c | 1,950$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a5…8ce6backed Yes | 2c | 889.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96ad…683cbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 499.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 27c | 492.08$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.95 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed No | 51c | 485.73$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.19 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes | 8c | 422.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…dee1backed Yes | 31c | 110$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 21c | 95.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5725…36e3backed Yes | 45c | 89.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.61 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7f…2558backed Yes | 23c | 67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e29…0f0ebacked Yes | 42c | 65.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 57c | 55.59$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 55.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed Yes | 38c | 46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…9862backed No | 80c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +38%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 32c | 32.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 66c | 32.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcefa…bef8backed Yes | 40c | 27.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | +7.7wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb943…d8a3backed No | 67c | 15.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump pick Andrew Bailey for Director of the FBI?this page
- Will Trump pick Mike Rogers for Director of the FBI?No won
- Will Trump pick Kash Patel for Director of the FBI?Yes won
- Will Trump pick Ken Paxton for Director of the FBI?No won
- Will Trump pick Steve Bannon for Director of the FBI?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.