TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel strikes Iran before August?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$305,755
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$306,454

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $305,755 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 219 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc449…2b31backed Yes1c23,764$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.77728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick20cpaid-47.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76c3…5152backed Yes1c18,565$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1012733.3%9 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes3c16,001$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.8443212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe97c…2a99backed Yes25c10,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5002360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick55cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7994…c512backed Yes15c9,545$1,416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,416.211537.4%43 W · 72 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes1c9,231$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.942078.2%17 W · 190 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-88.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9419…3aa4backed Yes15c8,949$1,329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,32940%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a3f…1eeebacked No73c7,090$5,206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,883.711030%3 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick49cpaid-55%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x843a…8070backed Yes11c6,998$791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$790.876023.3%14 W · 46 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-51.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf59f…3be9backed No78c6,150$4,810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,339.7715743.9%69 W · 88 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+23.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes23c4,951$1,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,161.255414.8%8 W · 46 L+0.1wins0.00per pick15cpaid+29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No65c4,192$2,738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,453.8635347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xddc0…3a00backed No60c4,135$2,478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,656.912548%12 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes30c4,014$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20014520.7%30 W · 115 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-40%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fb1…3b2dbacked Yes34c3,838$1,324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,324.09190%0 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x69cb…2320backed Yes41c3,745$1,529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,528.6640%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x06d0…254fbacked Yes38c3,718$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4003033.3%10 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-36.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes18c3,611$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$665.1716537%61 W · 104 L+11.5wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+25.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa84f…bc44backed No73c3,219$2,364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$855.425248.1%25 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb7f…1db2backed Yes28c3,218$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-67.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x426e…5922backed Yes19c2,908$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.622213.6%3 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No74c2,708$2,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703.556942%29 W · 40 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc781…59d7backed Yes15c2,619$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.475248.1%25 W · 27 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x922f…69d4backed No75c2,544$1,908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.191735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-31.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked No67c2,406$1,618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$787.8216246.3%75 W · 87 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x662c…bfe7backed Yes10c1,916$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.438552.9%45 W · 40 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e23…5411backed Yes42c1,805$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdff1…de19backed Yes2c1,800$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.77128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-56.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes32c1,717$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.7286542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x297a…92e0backed No70c1,473$1,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.217741.6%32 W · 45 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-24%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7a9…045cbacked Yes33c1,423$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.540%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9f2…0c24backed Yes14c1,389$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002714.8%4 W · 23 L-3.3wins-0.12per pick27cpaid-40.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc112…2cfbbacked Yes16c1,375$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220175.9%1 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick18cpaid-87.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c13…559bbacked Yes53c1,367$731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$730.9930%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb273…aa63backed Yes11c1,300$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1487423%17 W · 57 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick18cpaid-37.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Yes5c1,230$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.475545.5%25 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf5d…5244backed Yes41c1,226$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-49.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes17c1,200$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20442738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No58c1,165$672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.0431649.7%157 W · 159 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No79c1,114$882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.2822262.2%138 W · 84 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4e8b…1ea1backed No73c1,099$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.934553.3%24 W · 21 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd063…5ccdbacked No74c1,056$779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.272378.3%18 W · 5 L+5.2wins+0.23per pick56cpaid+137.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xffb0…fa37backed No63c1,049$661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.2716061.9%99 W · 61 L+9.8wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaf85…d0b6backed Yes9c1,043$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.09714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick15cpaid+19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88b6…3cffbacked No76c1,000$763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.52846.4%13 W · 15 L-4.7wins-0.17per pick63cpaid-30.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1b54…cb72backed Yes13c1,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1301723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-54.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa510…1f80backed Yes13c999.99$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1347413.5%10 W · 64 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-46.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes16c999.98$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1558617.4%15 W · 71 L-6.3wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-63.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes6c899.34$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.962520%5 W · 20 L-5.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-70.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x98d9…2c8cbacked No80c898.3$718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.634050%20 W · 20 L-6.2wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-28.9%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x6734…fd07backed Yes15c888$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.23713.5%5 W · 32 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-63.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes22c812.86$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.5840828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes9c800$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7315324.8%38 W · 115 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd5a…f7a4backed Yes15c799.97$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.146118%11 W · 50 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick20cpaid+0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e3e…692abacked Yes14c788$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.9714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-81.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c33…f52dbacked Yes13c754.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6c6…7d80backed No78c752.93$589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.442564%16 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x857f…da55backed Yes15c730.95$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed No74c722.48$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.6548630.5%148 W · 338 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c695$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.991,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97cc…bbbfbacked Yes14c656.84$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.485244.2%23 W · 29 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-17.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes38c649.59$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.549023.5%115 W · 375 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b74…e8d7backed No76c637.5$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.557252.8%38 W · 34 L-5.4wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-10.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5c39…aaabbacked Yes5c628.77$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.767014.3%10 W · 60 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-45%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea83…5c8fbacked No43c600$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.486254.8%34 W · 28 L+7.5wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+31.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc0e4…4ec7backed Yes34c579.43$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.012147.6%10 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.13per pick35cpaid+121%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x233d…6a8abacked Yes18c541.95$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.17137.7%1 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.19per pick26cpaid-85.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes19c500$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9517931.3%56 W · 123 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-15.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4679…5d5bbacked Yes32c495.92$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15930%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2425…3dd1backed Yes16c462.84$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.412139.7%48 W · 73 L+13.8wins+0.11per pick28cpaid+39.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0e86…f15dbacked Yes26c462$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.6540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick29cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefa8…c82bbacked Yes33c461.15$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.91625%4 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-55.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xfb46…f68bbacked No73c459.98$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12611136.9%41 W · 70 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes23c403.2$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.289617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x36d1…40a0backed Yes34c385$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.72015%3 W · 17 L-3.3wins-0.17per pick32cpaid-78.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed No66c385$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.94957.1%28 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1775…c4ccbacked No71c371.38$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.7450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked No63c353.61$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.9711851.7%61 W · 57 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x656e…65d2backed Yes34c350$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1193237.5%12 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed Yes37c344.06$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.791931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-46.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed No79c340.34$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.47966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x155c…1b09backed Yes33c332.98$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.881233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+19.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdca7…d306backed Yes33c331.73$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11060%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12b8…e956backed No75c316.13$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.132365.2%15 W · 8 L+3.1wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+11.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5446…fe65backed Yes11c310$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.11910.5%2 W · 17 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick23cpaid-71.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x08ec…b5fcbacked No73c308.58$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.931450%7 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-18.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cd9…bccebacked No64c300$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1094639.1%18 W · 28 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b64…49bdbacked No71c299.99$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$874641.3%19 W · 27 L-6.4wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-27.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc011…99bdbacked Yes34c294.12$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e6…d9e3backed Yes11c266.67$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7987…e367backed No75c265.76$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.764100%4 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+70.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No71c248.39$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.9167841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes8c246.67$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4577636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3d9…5492backed Yes29c236.84$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.420%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes34c236$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.416132.8%20 W · 41 L-5.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-29.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb83c…92bfbacked No66c233.36$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.332623.1%6 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-54.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x97c1…3d36backed Yes15c225.29$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.684355.8%24 W · 19 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No48c218.64$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.6947334%161 W · 312 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5516…92d1backed Yes14c216.41$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7541…09d1backed Yes49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.