TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Another Houthi strike on Israel before July?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$440,706
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$423,569

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $440,706 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 406 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa733…cd61backed No62c35,656$22,107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,549.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x69cd…e8b3backed Yes38c35,656$13,549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,549.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb9b…1d68backed Yes50c18,598$9,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,212.9750%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No80c7,439$5,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,518.6264339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x088f…c9e7backed Yes71c6,042$4,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,272.938137%30 W · 51 L-9.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-31.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed No46c5,870$2,681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,189.74940.8%20 W · 29 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37e4…a478backed Yes51c5,824$2,968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,968.452035%7 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes15c5,129$773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$773.32229.1%2 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick10cpaid+15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28da…b97dbacked Yes37c5,027$1,868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,867.794010%4 W · 36 L-5.1wins-0.13per pick23cpaid-66.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No55c4,905$2,684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,220.6113746%63 W · 74 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84fd…2f81backed No60c3,865$2,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,531.0119445.9%89 W · 105 L+8.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked No38c3,750$1,434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,315.8140433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x87d6…95e6backed Yes54c3,713$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed No52c3,529$1,831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,698.069647.9%46 W · 50 L+8.0wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+8.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No77c3,399$2,629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$770.3867841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d91…a32abacked No74c3,331$2,455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$876.621855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e9f…8dc4backed No59c3,299$1,956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,342.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+68.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7256…de57backed Yes15c3,287$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001915.8%3 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-53.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes26c3,075$801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.9917931.3%56 W · 123 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-15.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x392a…7de9backed Yes9c2,718$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.38812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-80.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed Yes8c2,502$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.471235.7%7 W · 116 L-10.1wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-83.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes10c2,449$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.777817.9%14 W · 64 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-49%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes32c2,349$762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$762.4920823.1%48 W · 160 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc24f…adf8backed Yes43c2,313$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0004938.8%19 W · 30 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+59.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes39c2,306$906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$906.254425%11 W · 33 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-53.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa727…8289backed Yes56c2,295$1,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,284.525032%16 W · 34 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ecc…8422backed Yes20c2,277$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.412313%3 W · 20 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick24cpaid-72.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cac…0a0fbacked Yes24c2,213$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.12850%14 W · 14 L+5.5wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+47.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x037e…0c63backed Yes55c2,091$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1503336.4%12 W · 21 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x937e…db42backed No77c2,011$1,556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.681546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32fe…025fbacked Yes12c2,007$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.62728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-42.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54bb…35e5backed Yes53c1,890$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x860d…9a6cbacked Yes10c1,782$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.65633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick16cpaid+41.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes34c1,775$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60117929.1%52 W · 127 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9304…f693backed Yes33c1,765$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576.291118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-47.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15ee…b4babacked Yes15c1,727$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.7760%0 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No51c1,713$878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$835.0231649.7%157 W · 159 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No64c1,707$1,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$615.6316651.2%85 W · 81 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97c1…3d36backed No70c1,658$1,165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.974355.8%24 W · 19 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd5b9…a71dbacked No64c1,656$1,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602.33458.8%20 W · 14 L+5.0wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+36.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc34a…6007backed No69c1,636$1,126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.6121160.7%128 W · 83 L+14.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+2.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e4d…1acebacked Yes18c1,633$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002025%5 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-60.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x889c…f498backed Yes26c1,627$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.251118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-55.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x700c…9368backed Yes62c1,612$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000825%2 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-56.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x277f…ed32backed No71c1,500$1,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4351163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+26.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed Yes24c1,433$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.69711.3%11 W · 86 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-72.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb10c…c7a7backed Yes15c1,383$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-55.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes32c1,267$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.36147.1%1 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.17per pick24cpaid-85%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes35c1,255$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.9623420.9%49 W · 185 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed No55c1,250$687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.53762.2%23 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xffb0…fa37backed No73c1,246$905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.0416061.9%99 W · 61 L+9.8wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa7b0…6a57backed Yes48c1,237$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590.322227.3%6 W · 16 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-42.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed Yes23c1,211$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.1735347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes47c1,200$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.8431241.7%130 W · 182 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+66.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No71c1,178$836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.436942%29 W · 40 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb984…2a41backed Yes20c1,142$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.467429.7%22 W · 52 L+5.8wins+0.08per pick22cpaid+16.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8967…1e9bbacked Yes43c1,136$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.972528%7 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-18.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac9…cf1abacked Yes38c1,091$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.687051.4%36 W · 34 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb78e…30e3backed Yes38c1,085$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.653339.4%13 W · 20 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+106%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed No73c1,079$789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.3724234.3%83 W · 159 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-14.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a1c…5d20backed Yes2c1,053$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195026%13 W · 37 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-44.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78cf…dbc0backed Yes56c1,052$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.531952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-23.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcced…9ffebacked Yes45c1,039$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.663455.9%19 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick50cpaid-0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9758…536dbacked Yes11c1,019$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.2254%1 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick12cpaid-49.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x54a1…ec5dbacked Yes23c1,000$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2301258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x00b7…cfa0backed Yes27c1,000$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2702128.6%6 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99d1…f1f0backed Yes54c929.2$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No70c887.87$626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.194619.6%9 W · 37 L-4.1wins-0.09per pick28cpaid-64%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x112d…18b9backed Yes34c881.65$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30060%0 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes29c866.82$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.1489617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2adf…d648backed Yes42c842.99$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.28366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick29cpaid+199.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7504…9c69backed Yes9c839.14$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.521450%7 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x92db…5421backed Yes21c835.79$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.86728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick21cpaid-26.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0372…a86bbacked Yes12c825.34$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10080%0 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xdd2e…615bbacked Yes27c820$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x012c…c821backed No73c820$599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.42100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick70cpaid+44.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes25c819.24$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.3586542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49a1…14a8backed No48c810$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3c4…2f6cbacked Yes52c810$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes29c799.6$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.1136750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4bd3…8c6fbacked Yes26c793.41$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.721250%6 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-22.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No53c782.44$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365.3451138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd690…ad2abacked Yes65c774.16$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd118…a96dbacked Yes29c773.56$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.392245.5%10 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc781…59d7backed Yes29c757.94$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.245248.1%25 W · 27 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48aa…fccdbacked Yes11c743.85$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.821838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick31cpaid-22.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes16c740.2$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.861,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes35c730$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.716743.7%73 W · 94 L+11.9wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+21%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x67d4…b1e7backed No55c727.27$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.271233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cb2…e1e4backed Yes29c696.85$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-48.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x22c3…289cbacked Yes43c691.57$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002842.9%12 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3164…3033backed No74c673.59$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.598056.3%45 W · 35 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cfc…4194backed Yes37c673.28$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-24.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20d7…7f5cbacked Yes30c672.13$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick23cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc57…ce1ebacked Yes20c666.62$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1301450%7 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x70f8…7fb5backed No76c650$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.452263.6%14 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick59cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5b3…507bbacked Yes31c645.56$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2023336.4%12 W · 21 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick28cpaid-4.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6fe0…e55abacked No73c629.48$459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.48366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes7c600.13$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8135819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2964…ea1ebacked Yes7c600$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-65.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.