TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xa7b0…6a57

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
45
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: NBA, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 54 out of 100; worst Middle East at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 2, 2026, EDT2227.3%6 W · 16 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-42.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$43
Will Israel strike 3 countries in March 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.6
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.6
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.2
Will Israel strike 2 countries in March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.36
Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+27.6%+$21.6
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$7.2
Will another country strike Iran by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.6
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+38.9%+$28
US strikes Iran by March 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+244.8%+$85.2
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+257.1%+$244.8
Will the US strike Iran next?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$21.45
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$81.2
Will the US strike Iran next?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$20.65
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$67.9
Will the US strike Somalia next?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$30
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will the US strike Iran next?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$133Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$133.25
Another Houthi strike on Israel before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$590Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$590.32
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.5
Iran strike on Israel by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT+35.7%+$8.92
All 22 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT1560%9 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 31.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+100%+$10
James Harden: Points O/U 20.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT+100%+$10
Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 6.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$21.25
Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 25.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Jaylin Williams: Points O/U 9.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Brandin Podziemski: Points O/U 16.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EST+100%+$10
Spread: Spurs (-7.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$10.2
1H Spread: Lakers (-5.5)backed Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+94.9%+$14.23
Pistons vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+66.7%+$8
Jabari Smith Jr.: Rebounds O/U 5.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+150%+$15
Keyonte George: Points O/U 25.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Jonathan Kuminga: Points O/U 14.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$17.8
Thunder vs. Knicksbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+63.9%+$7.8
Pistons vs. Sunsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$21
Rockets vs. Hawksbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+66.7%+$8
All 15 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 29, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-29.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 6.5 Cornersbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$15.9
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advancebacked Germany · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.94
Spread: Germany (-2.5)backed Germany · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.4
All 3 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$10.41
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 21, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+284.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US military action against Iran by Monday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+284.6%+$74
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jun 13, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Boss Open: Shelton vs. Leheckabacked Shelton · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$28.82
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+60%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$161Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+60%+$96.72
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.