TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Jonathan Kuminga: Points O/U 14.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,180

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,180 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6dd9…bfe8backed No68c2,485$1,698 inWon+$787.0265762.3%409 W · 248 L+27.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0336…4bb0backed Yes33c1,643$550 inLost-$5502347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0cbb…f8a3backed Yes27c748.67$205 inLost-$205.325745.6%26 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes33c522$170 inLost-$170.421,20051.6%619 W · 581 L+66.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa717…8919backed No73c371$271 inWon+$100.1716361.3%100 W · 63 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Yes29c347.26$102 inLost-$102.333,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No66c254$167 inWon+$87.124,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22fb…26a7backed Yes24c208.93$50 inLost-$50.51513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.9wins-0.19per pick32cpaid-58.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked No66c204.13$135 inWon+$68.9526839.2%105 W · 163 L-0.7wins0.00per pick39cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf56e…a853backed No73c200$147 inWon+$53.024393%40 W · 3 L+12.5wins+0.29per pick64cpaid+65.4%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xabdd…2d96backed No75c150$112 inWon+$37.5760267.3%405 W · 197 L+46.2wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x12c3…b054backed Yes51c79.15$40 inLost-$407951.9%41 W · 38 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes24c76.02$18 inLost-$17.91,13217%192 W · 940 L+2.5wins0.00per pick17cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x342b…d208backed Yes48c63.15$30 inLost-$30.312050%10 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x853e…0d8cbacked No57c39.53$23 inWon+$1712042.5%51 W · 69 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7b0…6a57backed Yes46c38.51$18 inLost-$17.81560%9 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5767…8cc1backed No51c26.48$14 inWon+$12.91,08442.4%460 W · 624 L-48.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.