NBA · resolved market
Hawks vs. Bucks: O/U 230.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3eed31da6a71cdf3248656f1dabd4baef59bf6fc9160e37b910c3e05261d362
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,998
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,998 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 45c | 5,886$2,648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,648.05 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44d6…9858backed Over | 55c | 4,737$2,606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,131.85 | 127 | 45.7%58 W · 69 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…9675backed Under | 46c | 3,465$1,594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,593.9 | 226 | 48.2%109 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Over | 54c | 3,000$1,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,380 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83ab…3d56backed Over | 54c | 2,345$1,266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,078.69 | 93 | 43%40 W · 53 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 25c | 1,340$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab65…4a03backed Under | 46c | 1,263$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.9 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 75c | 1,208$906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6eb…5402backed Over | 55c | 1,047$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.27 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69ff…0d1dbacked Over | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 331 | 46.2%153 W · 178 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Under | 46c | 316$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.36 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Under | 46c | 310$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.6 | 456 | 46.7%213 W · 243 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…20eebacked Under | 46c | 300.37$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.17 | 358 | 43.6%156 W · 202 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 44c | 184.69$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.14 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Under | 46c | 155$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.3 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 46c | 152.86$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.32 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 55c | 148$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.6 | 920 | 58%534 W · 386 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 46c | 103.22$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.68 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 46c | 99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec89…8de0backed Over | 57c | 98.58$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.39 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a25…bb6bbacked Under | 46c | 77.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 340 | 47.1%160 W · 180 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Under | 46c | 77.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 572 | 50%286 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c0…d4dcbacked Over | 53c | 75.45$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.46 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd598…c67cbacked Under | 46c | 71.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 54c | 70.43$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.36 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Over | 62c | 67.33$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 40c | 62.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0307…7ab8backed Under | 44c | 57.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 454 | 52%236 W · 218 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Over | 54c | 56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 952 | 60.2%573 W · 379 L | +37.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…19c5backed Over | 55c | 55.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 243 | 58%141 W · 102 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05f…91d5backed Over | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 128 | 57.8%74 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 31c | 45.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 45c | 39.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 44c | 37.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 46c | 31.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbb…727fbacked Under | 45c | 30.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 144 | 48.6%70 W · 74 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Over | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 280 | 56.8%159 W · 121 L | +22.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Over | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf11b…3fe3backed Over | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…a8b3backed Over | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 236 | 57.2%135 W · 101 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 47c | 27.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c20…6fd4backed Over | 61c | 25.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x971c…f72cbacked Over | 55c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 152 | 53.3%81 W · 71 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…17ccbacked Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hawks vs. Bucks: O/U 230.5this page
- Bobby Portis: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- CJ McCollum: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 25.5No won
- Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 10.5No won
- Hawks vs. BucksHawks won
- Hawks vs. Bucks: 1H O/U 119.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Bucks: O/U 231.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Bucks: O/U 232.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Bucks: O/U 233.5Over won
- Jalen Johnson: Rebounds O/U 10.5No won
- Jonathan Kuminga: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Jonathan Kuminga: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Kevin Porter Jr.: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Kevin Porter Jr.: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Kevin Porter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Onyeka Okongwu: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Onyeka Okongwu: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Spread: Hawks (-1.5)Hawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.