Middle East · resolved market
Will the US strike Iran next?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeff97f3499e9446493240a92a098b9f7aa9529ab1e40b2484bf590b97aab9d66
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,243,468
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,188,697
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,243,468 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 255 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x173e…0391backed Yes | 0c | 58,623$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.42 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53a5…67f6backed Yes | 2c | 57,168$1,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,341.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c65…dd26backed Yes | 0c | 55,826$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.69 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…97e9backed Yes | 0c | 36,630$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.63 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b6…ee7bbacked Yes | 1c | 30,296$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c81…8eacbacked Yes | 2c | 29,655$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.47 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb361…575ebacked Yes | 3c | 29,161$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -59%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa252…e692backed Yes | 0c | 23,020$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee5…ac96backed Yes | 2c | 20,405$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.5 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.27per pick | 41cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcad9…332abacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80e4…dc76backed Yes | 3c | 19,563$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8025…5cdcbacked Yes | 0c | 19,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 2c | 16,735$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.75 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad4…3d2abacked Yes | 2c | 15,658$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 2c | 14,569$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.9 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0d…bd07backed Yes | 9c | 14,442$1,338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,337.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 3c | 14,348$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.67 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -5.7wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -72%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b22…7c5cbacked Yes | 3c | 12,575$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.72 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3725…2776backed Yes | 0c | 11,504$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.28 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -42%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a3…81fabacked Yes | 1c | 10,213$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ea…ffbabacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6727…3ad6backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc2…fb11backed Yes | 10c | 9,465$934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$934.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3e…a3a4backed Yes | 4c | 8,896$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c34…55e6backed Yes | 2c | 8,491$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b4…a1adbacked Yes | 7c | 7,966$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ea…f0d2backed Yes | 1c | 7,800$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b5…ad90backed Yes | 3c | 7,272$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46e1…1a0abacked Yes | 2c | 7,260$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc596…c316backed Yes | 3c | 7,169$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d0…4393backed Yes | 1c | 7,009$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8e…97b9backed Yes | 0c | 6,869$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4845…ab17backed Yes | 2c | 6,862$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6322…a5b9backed Yes | 5c | 6,861$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…a65fbacked Yes | 1c | 6,748$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c2d…81c9backed Yes | 9c | 6,008$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…cbd5backed Yes | 5c | 5,651$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c0…ff01backed Yes | 19c | 5,273$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2af…c4e4backed Yes | 2c | 5,128$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc5…c9e7backed Yes | 4c | 4,850$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c46…cfbabacked Yes | 2c | 4,750$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x389d…5866backed Yes | 9c | 4,713$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8848…8c30backed Yes | 3c | 4,588$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.66 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacdf…00fbbacked Yes | 3c | 4,425$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.95 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…c9c9backed Yes | 8c | 4,234$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b48…c530backed Yes | 3c | 4,161$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe891…b782backed Yes | 5c | 4,140$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.55 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dc…a504backed Yes | 3c | 4,022$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.19 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b66…249cbacked Yes | 0c | 3,913$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb1…802ebacked Yes | 2c | 3,755$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.7 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61a9…1d42backed Yes | 3c | 3,620$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf11e…4014backed Yes | 5c | 3,609$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0db…e549backed Yes | 6c | 3,521$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…4238backed Yes | 2c | 3,483$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7813…0522backed Yes | 3c | 3,450$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b4…7ef9backed Yes | 2c | 3,422$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3011…fa73backed Yes | 5c | 3,199$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe516…9333backed Yes | 6c | 3,182$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 18cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf80e…94e3backed Yes | 5c | 3,170$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 3,123$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.71 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 3,100$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.28 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9515…444ebacked Yes | 6c | 2,920$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…d382backed Yes | 5c | 2,887$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.43 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3022…59c1backed Yes | 5c | 2,800$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6026…0b84backed Yes | 4c | 2,722$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd49…0e03backed Yes | 3c | 2,717$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c18…5079backed Yes | 5c | 2,609$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0766…6683backed Yes | 6c | 2,595$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x328e…4475backed Yes | 5c | 2,510$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +9.2wins | +0.18per pick | 29cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9394…37dabacked Yes | 3c | 2,497$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.69 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…3427backed Yes | 8c | 2,315$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.62 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6517…3dd2backed Yes | 1c | 2,229$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…f1adbacked Yes | 1c | 2,200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 45 | 0%0 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0c…8a11backed Yes | 7c | 2,176$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbd…f004backed Yes | 5c | 2,132$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa310…fa96backed Yes | 1c | 2,125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ad…7260backed Yes | 5c | 2,063$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 2,062$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.07 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…b62dbacked Yes | 4c | 2,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc62…a4e8backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13df…939dbacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d6…dc17backed Yes | 6c | 2,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fc…4089backed Yes | 4c | 1,958$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b15…da0bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,905$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +170.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa899…f68dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,874$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.26 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x750c…fc86backed Yes | 1c | 1,867$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd248…73d9backed Yes | 5c | 1,821$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x369f…9243backed Yes | 4c | 1,819$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8240…edebbacked Yes | 2c | 1,800$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 4c | 1,770$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.51 | 144 | 2.8%4 W · 140 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f9…a8c7backed Yes | 4c | 1,744$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8b…f30fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,734$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.38 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,700$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 147 | 7.5%11 W · 136 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f06…8828backed Yes | 1c | 1,675$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd84c…ec4abacked Yes | 3c | 1,633$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 17cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb46f…197dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,604$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 4c | 1,567$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.64 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa597…c90dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,542$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24b0…4ad7backed Yes | 1c | 1,541$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…64ccbacked Yes | 8c | 1,489$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US strike Iran next?this page
- Will the US not strike another country before 2027?No won
- Will the US strike Colombia next?No won
- Will the US strike Cuba next?No won
- Will the US strike Iraq next?No won
- Will the US strike Mexico next?No won
- Will the US strike Nigeria next?No won
- Will the US strike Somalia next?Yes won
- Will the US strike Syria next?No won
- Will the US strike Venezuela next?No won
- Will the US strike Yemen next?No won
- Will the US strike another country first?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.