Middle East · resolved market
Will the US strike Somalia next?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x912b74ff4b4a48f0f774ee891f5019339d739cd398c74b087c32264be4f4ceb4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $555,678
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $540,006
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $555,678 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7893…611fbacked No | 0c | 134,490$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 4c | 24,602$987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$986.61 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f20…fd17backed No | 8c | 17,333$1,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,325 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7964…f585backed No | 9c | 11,014$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040.45 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b22…7c5cbacked No | 3c | 10,257$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.47 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b48…c530backed No | 3c | 9,775$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 4c | 8,870$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.14 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdea…a777backed No | 4c | 6,663$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.37 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -4.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0da0…73e2backed No | 6c | 6,298$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff3a…06c4backed No | 0c | 5,300$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1610…517dbacked No | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1602…cbf7backed No | 0c | 4,795$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa56c…684ebacked No | 9c | 4,751$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…fad7backed No | 1c | 4,371$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…d382backed No | 3c | 4,212$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.52 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…32fbbacked No | 6c | 4,199$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.19 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24b0…4ad7backed No | 1c | 3,848$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 0c | 3,838$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 0c | 2,960$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe6…8013backed No | 1c | 2,883$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 5c | 2,669$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.55 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…e891backed No | 6c | 2,426$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.6 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 4c | 2,096$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.85 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8d…6f61backed No | 3c | 2,025$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2070…dd68backed No | 7c | 2,000$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +101.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9939…d3bebacked No | 2c | 1,921$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae3…49b7backed No | 16c | 1,840$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe891…b782backed No | 8c | 1,656$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.5 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc97…fd78backed No | 8c | 1,648$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 2c | 1,572$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc9…a4dfbacked No | 5c | 1,314$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 1,264$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc596…c316backed No | 1c | 1,222$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…3427backed No | 12c | 1,180$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…e8dabacked No | 5c | 1,172$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.77 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 4c | 1,171$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 147 | 7.5%11 W · 136 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26bc…f2d1backed No | 9c | 1,167$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed No | 4c | 1,154$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.83 | 144 | 2.8%4 W · 140 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 4c | 1,100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4214…b79ebacked No | 2c | 1,034$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa899…f68dbacked No | 13c | 1,007$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.68 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacdf…00fbbacked No | 6c | 1,005$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.85 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefee…1c08backed No | 5c | 1,000$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe92c…d714backed No | 8c | 1,000$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…ea04backed No | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7443…f7aebacked No | 5c | 990.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x328e…4475backed No | 7c | 987.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +9.2wins | +0.18per pick | 29cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd019…681fbacked No | 5c | 975.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc698…642ebacked No | 7c | 905.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 5c | 889.27$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.59 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3e…3a7cbacked No | 7c | 886.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c18…5079backed No | 5c | 810.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44e4…f624backed No | 2c | 779.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 12c | 742.73$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.73 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 10c | 737.84$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.06 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9906…c0aebacked No | 4c | 729.22$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.41 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3f…582bbacked No | 5c | 723.65$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 4c | 700$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ad…b056backed No | 15c | 685.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf679…aa1abacked No | 3c | 615.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x180c…33f1backed No | 4c | 605.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95ed…16b2backed No | 6c | 590.76$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdde9…f432backed No | 5c | 587.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -86.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…cbd5backed No | 6c | 571.76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5714…fc13backed No | 7c | 557.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x470f…9732backed No | 4c | 507.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd68e…7858backed No | 6c | 505.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x168e…f134backed No | 5c | 500$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffe…4071backed Yes | 77c | 486.6$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.54 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b01…8f47backed No | 5c | 480.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e86…6bc9backed No | 4c | 476.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…d6bfbacked No | 6c | 473.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcce5…afb0backed No | 7c | 456.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19e7…9a70backed No | 4c | 453.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 19c | 437.92$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.17 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd002…4660backed No | 5c | 411.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf353…7aecbacked No | 5c | 408.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked No | 4c | 404.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 143 | 0.7%1 W · 142 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 7c | 392.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0293…a107backed No | 3c | 373.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf635…82b4backed No | 5c | 358.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ec…c675backed No | 6c | 339.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb53…31e1backed No | 6c | 336.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24fb…343bbacked No | 6c | 333.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c0…ccd1backed No | 6c | 332.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 5c | 321.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc345…7fccbacked No | 5c | 309.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c3…a901backed No | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbda8…8c47backed No | 5c | 272.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b35…4a36backed No | 4c | 261.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -89.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5218…f51fbacked No | 6c | 259.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25c9…2f1cbacked No | 8c | 254.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec3…57efbacked No | 6c | 246.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6335…ca2bbacked No | 8c | 236.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbd…7210backed No | 6c | 235.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 11c | 230$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 112 | 26.8%30 W · 82 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 12c | 207.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf67d…9f56backed No | 20c | 200.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…7e56backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3c…7efbbacked No | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US strike Somalia next?this page
- Will the US not strike another country before 2027?No won
- Will the US strike Colombia next?No won
- Will the US strike Cuba next?No won
- Will the US strike Iran next?No won
- Will the US strike Iraq next?No won
- Will the US strike Mexico next?No won
- Will the US strike Nigeria next?No won
- Will the US strike Syria next?No won
- Will the US strike Venezuela next?No won
- Will the US strike Yemen next?No won
- Will the US strike another country first?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.