Middle East · resolved market
Will the US not strike another country before 2027?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3496089277c2d5d9951ad652461b1b9cc9778ebbf4c82b661d23d7aa958595a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,533,593
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $671,847
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,533,593 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdef8…bc05backed Yes | 0c | 208,000$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc449…e51bbacked Yes | 0c | 200,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb1…417dbacked Yes | 0c | 150,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fee…08a8backed Yes | 0c | 120,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc73…84fbbacked Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4890…0b03backed Yes | 0c | 85,590$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x382f…4fa6backed Yes | 0c | 80,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad4…3d2abacked Yes | 0c | 64,942$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…7255backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40ff…3d33backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd39f…7170backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbc…8893backed Yes | 0c | 44,410$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2adc…e731backed Yes | 0c | 36,940$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c3…0c9cbacked Yes | 0c | 36,540$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…d012backed Yes | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd196…2773backed Yes | 0c | 26,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb9…77c7backed Yes | 0c | 25,500$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x207c…fc53backed Yes | 0c | 21,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e86…6bc9backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b48…c530backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8465…0cbdbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2863…4ac0backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80ca…2bf7backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc895…3cd9backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…0c0dbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4b…7d45backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd87f…8d77backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5841…cd1dbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92c…d714backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…183cbacked Yes | 0c | 19,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…8bfabacked Yes | 0c | 17,424$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52ab…939cbacked Yes | 0c | 13,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x727a…1174backed Yes | 0c | 13,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fc…9c2abacked Yes | 0c | 12,900$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17c9…19b7backed Yes | 0c | 12,100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8b…f30fbacked Yes | 0c | 12,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x857a…f25bbacked Yes | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca2e…88f5backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa151…660bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8b…97efbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78d3…1929backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e3…f1c2backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 14cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1656…5a6abacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c9…973fbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbf…3f74backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb88a…b3f9backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93f9…4c70backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x978a…76c7backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee76…52d5backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd52…c644backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe891…b782backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…89cabacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x367e…4241backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac51…a068backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3138…1f42backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb83d…c9e5backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e34…feb1backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1c…1373backed Yes | 0c | 7,828$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e7…f992backed Yes | 0c | 7,261$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf250…cdffbacked Yes | 0c | 5,798$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa44d…7ea0backed Yes | 0c | 3,572$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa56c…684ebacked Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US not strike another country before 2027?this page
- Will the US strike Colombia next?No won
- Will the US strike Cuba next?No won
- Will the US strike Iran next?No won
- Will the US strike Iraq next?No won
- Will the US strike Mexico next?No won
- Will the US strike Nigeria next?No won
- Will the US strike Somalia next?Yes won
- Will the US strike Syria next?No won
- Will the US strike Venezuela next?No won
- Will the US strike Yemen next?No won
- Will the US strike another country first?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.