TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Pistons vs. Suns

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Sunsof Pistons, Suns
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,705,751
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,616,718

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,705,751 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,163 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x07b8…8e25backed Pistons59c319,385$187,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187,437.4423257.8%134 W · 98 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Suns40c312,964$126,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186,619.3251844.4%230 W · 288 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8e6…d504backed Suns42c238,094$99,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138,094.4621057.1%120 W · 90 L+20.3wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+19.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3d89…b02cbacked Suns41c210,000$86,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123,799.872560%15 W · 10 L+3.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+25.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Suns41c200,000$82,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117,999.8640446.8%189 W · 215 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Pistons58c145,571$84,637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84,637.2354539.6%216 W · 329 L-28.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf924…45c1backed Pistons60c143,706$86,928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86,927.74333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-42.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Pistons43c107,961$46,467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46,466.511,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Suns40c75,068$30,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45,054.321,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Pistons59c66,080$38,987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,987.1951350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Pistons60c62,545$37,402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,401.862,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Suns39c52,365$20,422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,942.787144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Pistons59c52,251$30,864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,863.841,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x44d4…1970backed Pistons59c50,847$30,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,00016752.1%87 W · 80 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9249…4f16backed Pistons59c50,261$29,654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,653.94841.7%20 W · 28 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-20.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Pistons60c50,000$30,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,999.991,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Pistons60c48,529$28,919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,919.064,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Suns41c48,260$19,787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,473.3839842.5%169 W · 229 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Pistons60c46,045$27,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,50076746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Suns38c45,704$17,367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,336.282,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Pistons9c39,387$3,545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,544.842,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Pistons38c35,517$13,656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,656.431,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Pistons58c26,789$15,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,504.7459347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Suns44c25,562$11,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,412.152,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf28e…cab2backed Pistons9c25,000$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,25056646.5%263 W · 303 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x11db…841fbacked Pistons0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252270%0 W · 227 L-0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Pistons60c25,000$15,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,999.9777348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2e4…bc51backed Pistons45c22,186$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,000.3221944.7%98 W · 121 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Pistons33c21,921$7,194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,1948,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Suns63c21,918$13,791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,127.141,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaf9e…a250backed Pistons58c20,000$11,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,60015247.4%72 W · 80 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe734…8f6abacked Suns42c20,000$8,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,60019150.8%97 W · 94 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe258…2330backed Pistons59c20,000$11,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,80023245.3%105 W · 127 L+0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb57a…b8c3backed Pistons60c20,000$12,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,999.9619653.6%105 W · 91 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa996…8aacbacked Suns42c19,999$8,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,599.4114243%61 W · 81 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Pistons59c19,061$11,282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,281.8292753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Suns52c18,022$9,439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,582.844,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7635…63f6backed Pistons60c17,756$10,634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,633.8721440.7%87 W · 127 L-16.2wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-23.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Pistons0c17,016$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.37211%7 W · 714 L-2.6wins0.00per pick1cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x062a…c2a3backed Suns41c15,000$6,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,85019048.4%92 W · 98 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+25.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x163e…dc5bbacked Pistons58c15,000$8,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,70020758%120 W · 87 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed Pistons58c13,820$8,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,015.6830845.8%141 W · 167 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e43…965dbacked Suns38c13,800$5,244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,555.892100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+145.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6763…bdc9backed Pistons61c13,800$8,415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,414.95250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7517…0353backed Suns63c13,264$8,304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,959.6527865.8%183 W · 95 L+25.4wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+10.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0748…a31ebacked Pistons45c13,240$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,0001145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+36.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3644…6fdfbacked Pistons59c12,202$7,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,199.031668.8%11 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick65cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Pistons61c11,664$7,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,115.9348944.2%216 W · 273 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Pistons62c11,161$6,922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,922.52,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x832d…d420backed Pistons62c10,000$6,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,2006540%26 W · 39 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbfc…5cfabacked Pistons0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick16cpaid-29%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba41…5f4fbacked Pistons59c10,000$5,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,90031445.2%142 W · 172 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Suns58c9,820$5,744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,075.343,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83e1…b37bbacked Pistons50c9,677$4,871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,870.9316550.3%83 W · 82 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1e1…f855backed Pistons61c8,500$5,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,22028742.9%123 W · 164 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Pistons32c8,000$2,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,559.9978445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52ed…8db7backed Suns38c7,810$3,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,806.9239349.1%193 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Suns38c7,614$2,893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,720.4545850.4%231 W · 227 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b9a…5f69backed Pistons1c7,486$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.355213.8%20 W · 501 L+0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd95c…f1d7backed Suns72c7,413$5,301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,112.21862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62a1…bbecbacked Pistons28c7,322$2,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,018.72035%7 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Pistons59c7,200$4,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,233.313,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Pistons60c6,993$4,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,203.162,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd5a…a71cbacked Pistons17c6,988$1,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200.555060%30 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Pistons34c6,275$2,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,142.8461939.6%245 W · 374 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x306a…0d29backed Pistons59c6,000$3,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5408048.8%39 W · 41 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd56d…bd7dbacked Pistons30c5,900$1,771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,771.158647.7%41 W · 45 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Pistons54c5,882$3,181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,180.645,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x613b…823abacked Pistons34c5,783$1,943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,942.5711344.2%50 W · 63 L-6.4wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x61a1…6657backed Pistons59c5,677$3,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,351.4727758.8%163 W · 114 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Pistons34c5,665$1,903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,902.5638540.3%155 W · 230 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Pistons60c5,528$3,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,299.389,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Pistons1c5,388$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.881,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5703…6091backed Suns38c5,343$2,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,312.91250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1baa…0b7fbacked Suns38c5,028$1,911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,117.332100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+102%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7960…b94fbacked Pistons59c5,000$2,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,95019751.8%102 W · 95 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfce1…9ce7backed Suns38c5,000$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,10035450.8%180 W · 174 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ac4…3081backed Pistons58c5,000$2,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,899.996454.7%35 W · 29 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+11.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f08…ed44backed Pistons43c4,941$2,124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,124.4939744.3%176 W · 221 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62fb…4d60backed Suns39c4,911$1,909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,001.8835547.3%168 W · 187 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Suns49c4,910$2,387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,522.3985344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb109…0a3cbacked Pistons62c4,847$3,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,004.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b39…3234backed Pistons44c4,739$2,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,072.617349.3%36 W · 37 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fd3…dec2backed Pistons62c4,726$2,930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,929.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0599…3490backed Pistons59c4,626$2,729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,729.414454.9%79 W · 65 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-6.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x816b…d69dbacked Suns75c4,601$3,469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,132.1724752.6%130 W · 117 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7791…af80backed Pistons59c4,416$2,605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,605.167441.9%31 W · 43 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb944…250fbacked Pistons45c4,360$1,964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,964.23357.6%19 W · 14 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+26.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Pistons31c4,175$1,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,305.063,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d26…1c15backed Pistons62c4,055$2,514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,514.222459.4%133 W · 91 L-0.6wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x447e…9710backed Suns42c4,035$1,681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,353.725251.9%27 W · 25 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+20.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x478f…f5d9backed Pistons62c4,032$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50022035.5%78 W · 142 L-11.5wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8ff3…1aa9backed Pistons60c4,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,40019645.9%90 W · 106 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff5b…c583backed Pistons61c4,000$2,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,439.9820847.6%99 W · 109 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x94a5…9838backed Suns43c3,790$1,627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,162.8720947.8%100 W · 109 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x769c…5c05backed Pistons58c3,754$2,177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,177.325354.7%29 W · 24 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x309f…9282backed Pistons60c3,688$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2009852%51 W · 47 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Suns40c3,681$1,488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,193.34,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Suns72c3,458$2,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9831,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd162…0d24backed Pistons26c3,351$871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$871.374843.8%21 W · 27 L+4.8wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+33.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.