TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Jabari Smith Jr.: Rebounds O/U 5.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,291

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,291 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x339a…1eaebacked No60c1,074$648 inLost-$647.951,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7205…3377backed No66c499.99$330 inLost-$329.9945657%260 W · 196 L+44.6wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+15.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked Yes34c453.14$155 inWon+$298.3977549.2%381 W · 394 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8d9…df36backed Yes50c430.1$214 inWon+$215.6540053.5%214 W · 186 L+14.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Yes33c392.29$130 inWon+$262.7476054.6%415 W · 345 L+56.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+33.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Yes34c294.12$100 inWon+$194.1215543.2%67 W · 88 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe235…e5f7backed Yes34c205.88$70 inWon+$135.88633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x712b…d2c0backed Yes38c187.98$71 inWon+$116.982528%7 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick21cpaid-15.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No59c154$91 inLost-$91.154,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked No61c112.47$69 inLost-$68.6692058%534 W · 386 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No66c75.76$50 inLost-$5097049.5%480 W · 490 L-11.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa528…2499backed No61c68.11$42 inLost-$41.8683158.1%483 W · 348 L+18.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10ef…bff0backed Yes37c45.15$17 inWon+$28.34560%3 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.27per pick33cpaid+85.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x82a2…a875backed Yes38c39.47$15 inWon+$24.471346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdda2…ba18backed Yes30c37.8$11 inWon+$26.465131.4%16 W · 35 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed No68c32.24$22 inLost-$21.9525840.7%105 W · 153 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5430…c1d3backed No60c25$15 inLost-$1522774.4%169 W · 58 L+22.5wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+15.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa7b0…6a57backed Yes40c25$10 inWon+$151560%9 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x043f…ca25backed No57c21.08$12 inLost-$11.916361.9%39 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.