TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Warriors vs. Rockets: O/U 212.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,320

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,320 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd6a3…9489backed Under47c3,163$1,486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,486.454,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4435…0840backed Under48c2,708$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30026648.5%129 W · 137 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over52c2,000$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9601,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x65d6…6d6bbacked Over57c1,887$1,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$816.0612844.5%57 W · 71 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Over33c1,884$623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,260.762,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb15…0f02backed Under48c1,875$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90016640.4%67 W · 99 L-14.6wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over55c1,862$1,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$829.33,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c67…a813backed Under68c1,766$1,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200.542552%13 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-17.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x128f…db9dbacked Over57c1,754$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754.3920651.5%106 W · 100 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Over53c1,500$795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7051,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Over51c1,234$629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605.332,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under44c1,212$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.069,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Under49c1,124$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.521,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over52c634.07$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.354,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under43c499.99$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.993,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed Under44c400$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17641050.7%208 W · 202 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Under48c399.98$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.9980737.7%304 W · 503 L-33.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f37…281bbacked Over47c360.57$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.577334.2%25 W · 48 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x23b2…ce61backed Over57c351$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.931942.1%8 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-17%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Under35c247.85$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.7525840.7%105 W · 153 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed Under65c223.3$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.5465872.8%479 W · 179 L+46.1wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb781…9ba9backed Over78c200$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4412047.5%57 W · 63 L-6.7wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x73a2…3b68backed Over55c169$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.7539055.6%217 W · 173 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Under50c162.04$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.423,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Under44c155.36$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.92,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e98…110bbacked Over53c129.63$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.9330845.8%141 W · 167 L-1.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under48c126.31$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.632,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Under44c100.47$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.641,42547.7%680 W · 745 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6932…6878backed Under44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4422453.1%119 W · 105 L+29.4wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+29.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x2fd5…ef85backed Over61c90.16$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.1612747.2%60 W · 67 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Over53c87.42$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.821,19748.9%585 W · 612 L-14.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee62…bc6abacked Over57c70.4$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.2726745.3%121 W · 146 L-7.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf36f…e5b8backed Over57c70.18$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.1816261.7%100 W · 62 L+15.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+19.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7447…c413backed Over66c68.41$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.262352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7895…896cbacked Over54c56.06$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.064250%21 W · 21 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93e3…e590backed Under46c52.18$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246437.5%24 W · 40 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-19.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Over52c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2465750.1%329 W · 328 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a1f…0568backed Over53c47.17$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.171942.1%8 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-26.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Over46c42$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.6865630.2%198 W · 458 L-86.7wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-42.7%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xe4d8…19c5backed Over59c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.424358%141 W · 102 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe824…65b4backed Over52c39.98$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1952552%273 W · 252 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85d9…d660backed Under45c38.76$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c33…9ac6backed Over52c38.46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4611352.2%59 W · 54 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over43c38$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.665,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fb9…a8b3backed Over53c37.74$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.7423657.2%135 W · 101 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b9e…eb82backed Over61c36.49$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.2334248.8%167 W · 175 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb351…5f41backed Over53c35.85$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.852250%11 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Under44c34$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9662049%304 W · 316 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x350e…7528backed Over61c32.58$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.588636%31 W · 55 L-11.0wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-26.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe825…39b7backed Under46c30.7$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.122927.6%8 W · 21 L-5.4wins-0.19per pick46cpaid-40%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9677…116fbacked Under48c30.13$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.461127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-50.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under56c30.12$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8745445.4%206 W · 248 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Under46c27.58$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5711826.3%31 W · 87 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-17.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf26b…f3b8backed Over54c27.41$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6110426.9%28 W · 76 L-9.6wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-34.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over54c25.64$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.794,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06d9…7cfbbacked Over80c23.75$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.755966.1%39 W · 20 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+14.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0fbb…727fbacked Under45c22.92$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2114448.6%70 W · 74 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd0f…48fdbacked Over52c19.27$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2523350.6%118 W · 115 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6276…7f2ebacked Under69c14.54$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0319166.5%127 W · 64 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.