NBA · resolved market
Spread: Rockets (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9ddccbd969447e4b5da65f69336ddf09ad54ee54ce79650d6dd8fc48755460a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Warriorsof Rockets, Warriors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,272
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,272 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Warriors | 41c | 3,170$1,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,876.52 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Rockets | 59c | 1,547$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$912.79 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed Rockets | 59c | 1,525$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 423 | 48%203 W · 220 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Warriors | 41c | 539.35$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.22 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Warriors | 44c | 526.61$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.46 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Rockets | 60c | 500.13$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a32…0188backed Rockets | 58c | 500$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Warriors | 46c | 310$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.4 | 456 | 46.7%213 W · 243 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…672ebacked Rockets | 60c | 273.05$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.83 | 137 | 59.9%82 W · 55 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Rockets | 57c | 256.8$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.38 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc57b…0a2bbacked Warriors | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Warriors | 53c | 172.07$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.15 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Warriors | 46c | 155$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.7 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…19c5backed Rockets | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 243 | 58%141 W · 102 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x166f…b68dbacked Rockets | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67b1…63ecbacked Rockets | 43c | 91$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | -11.4wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5b15…f827backed Rockets | 59c | 85.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Warriors | 43c | 78.38$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.68 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Rockets | 50c | 62.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd27…4721backed Rockets | 58c | 51.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 104 | 57.7%60 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed8…3affbacked Rockets | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 141 | 70.9%100 W · 41 L | +11.4wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Warriors | 42c | 49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 390 | 55.6%217 W · 173 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Warriors | 51c | 46.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff3…1aa9backed Rockets | 57c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 196 | 45.9%90 W · 106 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Warriors | 48c | 32.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Rockets | 56c | 30.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00d5…ed84backed Rockets | 56c | 30.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 170 | 50%85 W · 85 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…1b33backed Rockets | 44c | 29.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 628 | 44.9%282 W · 346 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4eb…05b5backed Warriors | 41c | 24.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…889cbacked Rockets | 45c | 23.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 197 | 50.3%99 W · 98 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Warriors | 63c | 18.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rockets (-7.5)this page
- Al Horford: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 19.5No won
- Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
- Amen Thompson: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Amen Thompson: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Amen Thompson: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Brandin Podziemski: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Draymond Green: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Draymond Green: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Jabari Smith Jr.: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Jabari Smith Jr.: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Kevin Durant: Points O/U 25.5No won
- Kevin Durant: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Spread: Rockets (-10.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Rockets (-8.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Rockets (-9.5)Warriors won
- Tari Eason: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Warriors vs. RocketsWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Rockets: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 103.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 104.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Rockets: O/U 212.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Rockets: O/U 213.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Rockets: O/U 214.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Rockets: O/U 215.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Rockets: O/U 216.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.