NBA · resolved market
Spread: Rockets (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc833dd7e2e03daa82cb89467560e29e2ba0d373006a95bb86ab134e98f0220d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Warriorsof Rockets, Warriors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,840
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,840 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe0a…4a63backed Rockets | 47c | 11,583$5,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,444.01 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00d5…ed84backed Rockets | 45c | 8,279$3,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,758.72 | 170 | 50%85 W · 85 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Warriors | 53c | 7,012$3,749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,263.83 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf19d…276fbacked Warriors | 53c | 3,812$2,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,791.76 | 231 | 47.6%110 W · 121 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed0…a9c5backed Warriors | 57c | 2,906$1,656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,249.55 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Rockets | 45c | 2,718$1,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,234.56 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Warriors | 55c | 2,614$1,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,179.49 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea2b…1fc6backed Warriors | 56c | 2,520$1,411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,108.66 | 382 | 53.4%204 W · 178 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Warriors | 54c | 2,278$1,241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,036.77 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc093…de0ebacked Rockets | 44c | 1,663$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.8 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Rockets | 46c | 1,583$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.82 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Rockets | 43c | 999.92$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.97 | 956 | 41.7%399 W · 557 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Warriors | 54c | 735.66$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.3 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Rockets | 47c | 462.28$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.27 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Warriors | 54c | 447.65$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.92 | 258 | 40.7%105 W · 153 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a26…dae7backed Rockets | 44c | 340.91$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac8…9e67backed Warriors | 55c | 269.74$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.56 | 185 | 43.2%80 W · 105 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc25…4fa8backed Rockets | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 108 | 49.1%53 W · 55 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99fa…97a9backed Warriors | 58c | 224.67$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.67 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb4…d481backed Warriors | 57c | 201$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.43 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…94e9backed Rockets | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 227 | 46.3%105 W · 122 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4694…b6b2backed Warriors | 54c | 184.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.92 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Rockets | 44c | 172.29$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.42 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97c7…dddfbacked Rockets | 46c | 162.71$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.31 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Rockets | 43c | 139.53$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Rockets | 44c | 107.39$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Rockets | 45c | 102.22$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.81 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Rockets | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Warriors | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Warriors | 57c | 87.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.53 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Rockets | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 216 | 37.5%81 W · 135 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Warriors | 55c | 76.81$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 399 | 43.1%172 W · 227 L | -17.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Rockets | 42c | 62.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7509…d031backed Warriors | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 208 | 47.1%98 W · 110 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddf5…aaa3backed Rockets | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 98 | 44.9%44 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Rockets | 44c | 53.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 609 | 45.8%279 W · 330 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Warriors | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 280 | 56.8%159 W · 121 L | +22.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Rockets | 45c | 46.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 648 | 44.8%290 W · 358 L | -32.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed Warriors | 53c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x63e3…8d11backed Rockets | 45c | 44.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fa…d338backed Warriors | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Rockets | 43c | 43.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed Warriors | 54c | 42.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 898 | 53.1%477 W · 421 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Rockets | 46c | 39.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 659 | 50.8%335 W · 324 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e4…24c2backed Warriors | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 285 | 47.7%136 W · 149 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1024…831abacked Warriors | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Rockets | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 554 | 44.4%246 W · 308 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed Rockets | 43c | 34.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Rockets | 44c | 30.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33ac…a435backed Rockets | 43c | 28.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Warriors | 54c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 620 | 49%304 W · 316 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…745dbacked Warriors | 54c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 273 | 45.1%123 W · 150 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9698…de01backed Warriors | 54c | 27.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 267 | 57.3%153 W · 114 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Rockets | 46c | 25.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked Warriors | 53c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 233 | 50.6%118 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf2…fa7bbacked Warriors | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rockets (-10.5)this page
- Al Horford: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 19.5No won
- Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
- Amen Thompson: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Amen Thompson: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Amen Thompson: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Brandin Podziemski: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Draymond Green: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Draymond Green: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Jabari Smith Jr.: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Jabari Smith Jr.: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Kevin Durant: Points O/U 25.5No won
- Kevin Durant: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Spread: Rockets (-7.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Rockets (-8.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Rockets (-9.5)Warriors won
- Tari Eason: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Warriors vs. RocketsWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Rockets: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 103.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 104.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Rockets: O/U 212.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Rockets: O/U 213.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Rockets: O/U 214.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Rockets: O/U 215.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Rockets: O/U 216.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.