Middle East · resolved market
Will another country strike Iran by March 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb90bc598234c96f4fd1d6c5090a96f349087f974f12e9675d6018ea68e6bec26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $568,806
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $568,806 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 581 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 0c | 23,958$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 37c | 15,411$5,671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,739.59 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 48c | 13,937$6,653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,652.93 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 4c | 11,860$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.72 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 46c | 10,071$4,659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,659.12 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 36c | 9,904$3,606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,297.36 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 0c | 8,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x389d…5866backed Yes | 16c | 8,294$1,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,301 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 7,900$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.52 | 72 | 1.4%1 W · 71 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ef…5523backed No | 54c | 7,834$4,261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,572.6 | 118 | 42.4%50 W · 68 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x183a…d514backed Yes | 40c | 7,274$2,910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,909.61 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked Yes | 19c | 7,179$1,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,395.71 | 142 | 27.5%39 W · 103 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 10c | 6,000$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.85 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 67c | 5,592$3,728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,864 | 113 | 57.5%65 W · 48 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef45…666fbacked Yes | 34c | 5,389$1,808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,807.58 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1934…0a4bbacked Yes | 27c | 5,000$1,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,369.99 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f0…529ebacked Yes | 17c | 4,698$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775.74 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 17c | 4,554$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.21 | 77 | 9.1%7 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 68c | 4,387$2,988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,988.06 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2501…7e28backed No | 68c | 4,051$2,762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,289.05 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf70…5e92backed No | 60c | 4,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,600 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf603…82f1backed Yes | 8c | 4,000$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.69 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…0958backed No | 52c | 3,832$1,979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,853.32 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 6c | 3,802$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.11 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 16c | 3,626$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.89 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e17…5aacbacked No | 17c | 3,618$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,009.73 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +5.1wins | +0.40per pick | 37cpaid | +149.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 30c | 3,348$992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$991.8 | 194 | 49.5%96 W · 98 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0384…27fbbacked No | 12c | 3,290$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,895.02 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 2c | 3,240$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.53 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbed…804ebacked No | 79c | 3,125$2,456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.75 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9078…26afbacked Yes | 9c | 3,057$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.9 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed No | 63c | 3,026$1,911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,115.61 | 105 | 58.1%61 W · 44 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 18c | 2,989$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,465.71 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 66c | 2,967$1,969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$998.32 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 54c | 2,827$1,515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,311.43 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe598…a0a8backed No | 13c | 2,743$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,389 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 9c | 2,740$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259 | 148 | 8.1%12 W · 136 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +238.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 37c | 2,500$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,575 | 152 | 34.2%52 W · 100 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 75c | 2,447$1,833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.56 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -23.0wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5b…7796backed Yes | 43c | 2,419$1,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,048.92 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ee…ec14backed No | 40c | 2,321$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,396.46 | 89 | 51.7%46 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c0…136abacked Yes | 6c | 2,296$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.39 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7018…6057backed Yes | 39c | 2,226$864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864.31 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9851…1f8bbacked Yes | 74c | 2,203$1,628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,627.63 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked Yes | 4c | 2,149$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.75 | 107 | 47.7%51 W · 56 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 2c | 2,123$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 139 | 18.7%26 W · 113 L | -13.9wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked No | 58c | 2,073$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$872.6 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58aa…a481backed No | 56c | 2,010$1,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$884.2 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +6.0wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc029…f705backed Yes | 24c | 2,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +1,883.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b21…5f56backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 34c | 2,000$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,329.99 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes | 15c | 1,987$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.83 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7948…9917backed Yes | 4c | 1,957$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.21 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 44c | 1,889$834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$833.5 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8597…daeebacked No | 72c | 1,887$1,349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.14 | 83 | 59%49 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 5c | 1,877$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.3 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa42…7f24backed No | 73c | 1,818$1,327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +37%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…e0b2backed Yes | 12c | 1,800$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf05…291bbacked No | 50c | 1,793$896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896.37 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ba…4372backed Yes | 20c | 1,792$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…9f40backed Yes | 73c | 1,791$1,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,305.6 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e24…6ce5backed Yes | 75c | 1,754$1,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,318.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83e0…53e6backed Yes | 55c | 1,700$932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$931.99 | 82 | 30.5%25 W · 57 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf33d…a537backed No | 60c | 1,667$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.67 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed No | 75c | 1,628$1,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.94 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2596…7803backed No | 46c | 1,625$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875.23 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc5…ef61backed Yes | 15c | 1,617$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.35 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 10c | 1,600$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440 | 156 | 25%39 W · 117 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 21c | 1,584$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.07 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 24c | 1,577$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,192.31 | 212 | 59.9%127 W · 85 L | +21.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 5c | 1,573$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.8 | 123 | 25.2%31 W · 92 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cb…6e8fbacked No | 79c | 1,564$1,238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.03 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…22cbbacked No | 74c | 1,549$1,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.76 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8a…7699backed No | 49c | 1,534$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.79 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce2d…f266backed Yes | 44c | 1,526$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 77c | 1,500$1,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.22 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa88a…3e8cbacked Yes | 15c | 1,500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +197.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…e90fbacked No | 25c | 1,485$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,113.82 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 14c | 1,453$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,245.03 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 20c | 1,431$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.65 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d74…04f5backed Yes | 12c | 1,430$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.65 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fc…a926backed No | 73c | 1,420$1,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.67 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -5.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x55bf…b569backed Yes | 73c | 1,400$1,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,021.98 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e85…8414backed Yes | 21c | 1,388$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 56c | 1,387$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.43 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 68c | 1,386$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.32 | 258 | 43.4%112 W · 146 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00b3…0991backed Yes | 3c | 1,349$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.73 | 69 | 29%20 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes | 4c | 1,322$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.08 | 165 | 7.3%12 W · 153 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6608…35d3backed Yes | 40c | 1,289$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.54 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6232…f92abacked No | 52c | 1,217$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.31 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90c6…2264backed No | 72c | 1,204$872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.08 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,197$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.81 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5915…cee1backed No | 40c | 1,173$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9de2…2f54backed Yes | 75c | 1,130$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.6 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18ed…d299backed Yes | 22c | 1,104$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43bf…c53abacked Yes | 57c | 1,100$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.9 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cc…e9a2backed Yes | 5c | 1,084$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7abd…099dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,060$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 18c | 1,056$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.13 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1b…1f0fbacked Yes | 19c | 1,054$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will another country strike Iran by March 7?this page
- Will another country strike Iran by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.