Middle East · resolved market
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbeb97cb6d42528a620b66e829b00d6d9e609a34665c109b5c95d581f21b5392f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $625,283
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $585,517
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $625,283 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 731 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xda73…8e23backed Yes | 25c | 27,862$7,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,028.03 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25db…28debacked Yes | 19c | 24,921$4,787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,787.11 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | +11.7wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5715…1616backed Yes | 44c | 24,330$10,764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,763.97 | 115 | 27%31 W · 84 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 52c | 24,146$12,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,671.14 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…881bbacked No | 79c | 17,944$14,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,737.36 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -16.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 12c | 15,785$1,833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,832.88 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…89bbbacked Yes | 20c | 14,600$2,909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,909 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c85…31d4backed Yes | 49c | 13,857$6,789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,789.02 | 102 | 26.5%27 W · 75 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63b1…1676backed No | 50c | 13,124$6,516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,608.41 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc60…af79backed No | 74c | 10,852$8,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,827.67 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes | 52c | 8,728$4,574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,573.79 | 104 | 35.6%37 W · 67 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 50c | 7,707$3,884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,822.68 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 64c | 7,541$4,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,690.87 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 49c | 7,403$3,633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,769.66 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x920e…001ebacked Yes | 20c | 7,397$1,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,474.83 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 51c | 7,367$3,762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,761.8 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 1c | 7,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 120 | 37.5%45 W · 75 L | +9.1wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 36c | 6,649$2,405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,405.1 | 126 | 34.9%44 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80c5…333dbacked Yes | 62c | 6,478$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +5.7wins | +0.20per pick | 35cpaid | +113.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 47c | 6,299$2,944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,354.48 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1934…0a4bbacked Yes | 50c | 6,000$2,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,980 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 50c | 5,068$2,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,513.74 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…7e10backed Yes | 45c | 5,059$2,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,284.66 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e34…c876backed Yes | 48c | 4,988$2,394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,394 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…6127backed Yes | 20c | 4,985$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -61%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6e…0617backed No | 47c | 4,799$2,261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,537.82 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8453…778dbacked No | 50c | 4,755$2,389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,365.55 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6911…947cbacked Yes | 57c | 4,582$2,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,589.65 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 47c | 4,349$2,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,324.22 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed Yes | 9c | 4,323$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.27 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22f9…a93bbacked Yes | 51c | 4,300$2,203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,202.84 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc46…201dbacked Yes | 12c | 4,118$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 49c | 4,000$1,967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,033.1 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc360…39d3backed Yes | 57c | 4,000$2,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,280 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked Yes | 54c | 4,000$2,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,148.63 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -7.3wins | -0.25per pick | 46cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d4…8e51backed Yes | 39c | 3,885$1,509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,508.72 | 70 | 27.1%19 W · 51 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6608…35d3backed Yes | 49c | 3,865$1,893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,892.79 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8a…548cbacked Yes | 53c | 3,766$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d0…f8e5backed Yes | 54c | 3,700$1,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,998 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63d4…d4e8backed Yes | 55c | 3,548$1,963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,963.22 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…2a1fbacked Yes | 55c | 3,542$1,933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,932.79 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | +15.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x731b…90dfbacked Yes | 18c | 3,514$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.36 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 54c | 3,511$1,884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,883.51 | 194 | 49.5%96 W · 98 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80a0…5708backed Yes | 47c | 3,500$1,645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,645 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ae…f471backed No | 64c | 3,413$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,212.37 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d7…11b2backed No | 60c | 3,298$1,968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,330.11 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd624…a0f8backed Yes | 50c | 3,174$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf748…ecb8backed Yes | 45c | 3,139$1,425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,424.57 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 50c | 3,026$1,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,505.2 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb394…7eb0backed No | 59c | 3,016$1,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,246.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d48…ae38backed Yes | 55c | 2,993$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,650.22 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 50c | 2,867$1,426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440.59 | 165 | 41.2%68 W · 97 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 69c | 2,800$1,932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$867.99 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x872e…e58fbacked Yes | 38c | 2,610$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.5 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe074…10e2backed Yes | 50c | 2,498$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +139.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf31b…241bbacked No | 44c | 2,469$1,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,382.37 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +5.7wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d4…a8efbacked Yes | 63c | 2,360$1,495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,494.58 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 36c | 2,187$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.07 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa88a…3e8cbacked Yes | 47c | 2,154$1,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010.69 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +197.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 48c | 2,117$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,015.47 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3172…bef2backed No | 56c | 2,110$1,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$926.12 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 66cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…c57fbacked Yes | 52c | 2,088$1,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,091.6 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fcd…c2acbacked No | 46c | 2,072$954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,117.99 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x797a…a147backed No | 68c | 2,050$1,390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…7cd3backed No | 42c | 2,044$857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,186.98 | 90 | 31.1%28 W · 62 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3869…0e3cbacked Yes | 50c | 2,021$1,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,011.1 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +195.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee69…05d0backed Yes | 51c | 2,000$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010.15 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…355ebacked No | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,039.99 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58aa…a481backed No | 53c | 1,915$1,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$892.83 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +6.0wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 1,897$1,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.54 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff91…ab3abacked No | 43c | 1,870$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,065.32 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0a…03cdbacked Yes | 22c | 1,858$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbc…8323backed Yes | 56c | 1,858$1,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,031.77 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed No | 65c | 1,828$1,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.25 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40b1…d3c9backed Yes | 5c | 1,785$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.22 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe168…e559backed Yes | 57c | 1,748$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.75 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +5.0wins | +0.19per pick | 42cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 45c | 1,726$772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.25 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd554…a3f6backed Yes | 50c | 1,725$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x720b…37f6backed No | 66c | 1,670$1,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.07 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -7.1wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc7…4ad4backed Yes | 52c | 1,652$853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.92 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | +20.7wins | +0.16per pick | 33cpaid | +143.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked No | 54c | 1,614$872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.32 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…f35cbacked No | 49c | 1,610$783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827.04 | 186 | 39.8%74 W · 112 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked No | 49c | 1,559$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$791.92 | 117 | 28.2%33 W · 84 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 48c | 1,556$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.67 | 112 | 8.9%10 W · 102 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56bb…2949backed Yes | 58c | 1,553$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.13 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…66afbacked Yes | 10c | 1,500$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x413f…47f3backed No | 69c | 1,500$1,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +5.8wins | +0.21per pick | 47cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 31c | 1,455$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.74 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x811f…16e3backed No | 55c | 1,419$782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.89 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 31c | 1,418$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980.41 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 8c | 1,414$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.94 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 52c | 1,411$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.11 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc5…da90backed No | 60c | 1,365$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.03 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 47c | 1,334$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.22 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 60c | 1,300$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.58 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x412c…2d87backed Yes | 44c | 1,269$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.72 | 74 | 33.8%25 W · 49 L | +11.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +259.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…c7e7backed Yes | 8c | 1,256$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 103 | 13.6%14 W · 89 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 38c | 1,250$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775.75 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32d2…3a22backed Yes | 8c | 1,236$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.22per pick | 24cpaid | +177.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31?this page
- US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.