Middle East · resolved market
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2de69f043bbef4e0340eb7e1a08d59ae8cc6e33b938e827104e07b97df0ff992
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $189,619
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $189,619 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 225 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x25db…28debacked Yes | 7c | 14,393$1,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,062.15 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | +11.7wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 77c | 7,791$6,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,768.6 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc60…af79backed No | 72c | 5,692$4,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,573.47 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 20c | 4,456$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.67 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1934…0a4bbacked Yes | 32c | 4,000$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e1f…7828backed Yes | 12c | 3,757$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.8 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf13f…3396backed Yes | 12c | 3,631$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c85…31d4backed Yes | 20c | 3,281$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.45 | 102 | 26.5%27 W · 75 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6608…35d3backed No | 73c | 3,270$2,387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$883.28 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e59…b2bebacked Yes | 27c | 2,952$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +97.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf75…3880backed Yes | 27c | 2,637$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.65 | 133 | 21.8%29 W · 104 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 80c | 2,610$2,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.14 | 113 | 57.5%65 W · 48 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43bf…c53abacked Yes | 23c | 2,517$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.49 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 2,464$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 72 | 1.4%1 W · 71 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3542…c3c8backed Yes | 14c | 2,054$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.52 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d4…8e51backed Yes | 21c | 1,967$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405 | 70 | 27.1%19 W · 51 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked No | 75c | 1,776$1,339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.11 | 117 | 28.2%33 W · 84 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,750$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 67c | 1,693$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.28 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes | 1c | 1,683$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 165 | 7.3%12 W · 153 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf748…ecb8backed Yes | 15c | 1,617$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d9…d6dbbacked No | 76c | 1,605$1,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.03 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 5c | 1,513$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.14 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8453…778dbacked No | 78c | 1,468$1,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.51 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6911…947cbacked Yes | 32c | 1,428$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.03 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 24c | 1,400$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.63 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 18c | 1,354$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.27 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cf…0569backed No | 72c | 1,312$949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.28 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 54cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6e…0617backed No | 62c | 1,298$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.48 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 7c | 1,297$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.28 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd97…e190backed Yes | 18c | 1,266$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.98 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 28cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c97…4569backed No | 72c | 1,231$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.01 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 1,213$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 16c | 1,125$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.7 | 70 | 12.9%9 W · 61 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd554…a3f6backed No | 76c | 1,047$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.41 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d6…8a05backed Yes | 38c | 1,022$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.01 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +4.3wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +143.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdb35…714abacked Yes | 11c | 1,010$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Yes | 19c | 1,008$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.43 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 126 | 34.9%44 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe35a…e615backed Yes | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d66…05a3backed Yes | 31c | 975.3$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f59…3637backed Yes | 23c | 915.77$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.26 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -56%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 26c | 897.77$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.39 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…7504backed No | 78c | 871.72$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.76 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba30…ca1cbacked Yes | 60c | 826.87$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.32per pick | 41cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 10c | 820$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.8 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…7cd3backed No | 78c | 819.69$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.2 | 90 | 31.1%28 W · 62 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0327…5e15backed Yes | 15c | 799.98$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 72c | 788.56$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -23.0wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x73d7…11b2backed No | 76c | 774.56$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.95 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e45…3662backed No | 79c | 740.07$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.04 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a57…9299backed Yes | 13c | 739.03$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.74 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x720b…37f6backed No | 75c | 731.21$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.22 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -7.1wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xad0e…e763backed Yes | 36c | 701.2$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d46…e089backed Yes | 24c | 625.56$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…f395backed Yes | 29c | 623.76$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.69 | 146 | 9.6%14 W · 132 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x597d…b97dbacked Yes | 14c | 615.5$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.06 | 39 | 5.1%2 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd4…ad53backed No | 79c | 602.32$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.04 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed No | 70c | 600$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…f1afbacked Yes | 30c | 599.98$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.99 | 229 | 27.1%62 W · 167 L | -12.8wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee95…0625backed Yes | 17c | 589.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 5c | 550$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 98 | 27.6%27 W · 71 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…70b4backed Yes | 18c | 543.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cc…e9a2backed Yes | 18c | 543.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d2…3a22backed Yes | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.22per pick | 24cpaid | +177.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5715…1616backed Yes | 12c | 510$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 115 | 27%31 W · 84 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd873…2255backed Yes | 17c | 508.45$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.66 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6024…dec6backed Yes | 36c | 501.61$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8aaa…51dfbacked Yes | 32c | 500$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | +9.6wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd87d…52f9backed Yes | 28c | 479.39$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.94 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d06…397ebacked No | 71c | 464.02$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.02 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…2bc6backed Yes | 5c | 420$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa2…6a1bbacked Yes | 46c | 417.36$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.62 | 41 | 14.6%6 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…928fbacked Yes | 24c | 416.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63e3…f341backed Yes | 25c | 403.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e5…c5dfbacked Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…60e1backed Yes | 11c | 400$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 6c | 400$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 170 | 3.5%6 W · 164 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff6…2c67backed Yes | 11c | 400$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38d9…a783backed Yes | 29c | 400$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce1b…132fbacked Yes | 22c | 399.95$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.99 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 21c | 396.74$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.36 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e07…c5cdbacked Yes | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 77c | 383.7$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.43 | 258 | 43.4%112 W · 146 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 60c | 364.31$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.36 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb06f…2857backed Yes | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 24c | 346.6$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.37 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd074…83e2backed Yes | 31c | 339.37$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1bb…eff1backed Yes | 30c | 330.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab80…af18backed Yes | 31c | 329$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.72 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae9d…c209backed Yes | 17c | 325.05$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04ac…99f6backed Yes | 28c | 321.57$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.48 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +70%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e91…eb60backed Yes | 14c | 319.67$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.65 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ed…d299backed Yes | 21c | 318.21$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.62 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3cb…ef82backed Yes | 34c | 310$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.7 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbf…edb8backed Yes | 32c | 308.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +197.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 13c | 299.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd1…c9b5backed Yes | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9da0…b62abacked Yes | 35c | 292.69$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.87 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -64%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81d1…4e30backed No | 51c | 288.99$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.95 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 15?this page
- US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.