Middle East · resolved market

Will the US strike Iran next?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50c135bba33e8484c8425ce834d9afa56506dd9790538c43d994b11eee9bbb01

Rebuilt 23 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 4, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,388,825
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,565,383

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,388,825 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 168 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5ca7…8195backed Yes	0c	150,000$327 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$326.69	60	13.3%8 W · 52 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	+64.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8ddf…e149backed Yes	0c	83,658$369 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$369.09	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7bc3…d183backed Yes	0c	50,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	15	0%0 W · 15 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8150…d03fbacked Yes	3c	46,374$1,455 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,455	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	+1.6wins	+0.15per pick	22cpaid	+2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x862e…338dbacked Yes	1c	46,283$256 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$256	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4e8c…c003backed Yes	0c	43,031$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.49	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x664c…d6b0backed Yes	0c	37,201$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.07per pick	13cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9223…ff6ebacked Yes	3c	35,326$1,067 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,067.5	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x147f…49edbacked Yes	0c	32,068$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2863…4ac0backed Yes	1c	25,343$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-84.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc714…4141backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc323…0f5ebacked Yes	0c	14,854$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9143…9235backed Yes	1c	13,880$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	20cpaid	-81.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0354…d9e4backed Yes	2c	13,704$211 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210.82	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5380…57d3backed Yes	0c	13,334$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x42bb…4370backed Yes	0c	11,446$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.48	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes	1c	10,877$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.52	141	29.8%42 W · 99 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	30cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcee4…ab3abacked Yes	0c	10,575$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes	0c	10,406$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.81	228	2.6%6 W · 222 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	2cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x36c2…6127backed Yes	10c	10,004$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	21cpaid	-61%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa81f…a9b9backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+3.1wins	+0.39per pick	36cpaid	+201.3%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes	3c	9,598$282 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$281.88	243	8.2%20 W · 223 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-47.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x472b…6339backed Yes	0c	8,885$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.29	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb900…da7ebacked Yes	19c	8,789$1,698 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,698	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb019…bd39backed Yes	0c	7,499$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.98	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.40per pick	10cpaid	+150%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38f7…e274backed Yes	0c	6,997$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf562…4099backed Yes	0c	6,675$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.03	57	43.9%25 W · 32 L	+5.1wins	+0.09per pick	35cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5fac…4723backed Yes	14c	6,597$913 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$913.02	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-1.0wins	-0.11per pick	22cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbd1…2265backed Yes	0c	6,586$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes	3c	6,501$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.06	678	41.6%282 W · 396 L	-20.5wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1986…7b55backed Yes	1c	6,449$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.79	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2f82…8034backed Yes	0c	6,125$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes	2c	6,103$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.33	36	0%0 W · 36 L	-5.2wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	41-0.09 edge/pick
0x9b58…bc59backed Yes	0c	5,633$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.66	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbfe3…1835backed Yes	0c	5,284$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2728…400cbacked Yes	0c	4,646$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd76f…db37backed Yes	0c	4,417$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1ad8…5b77backed Yes	1c	4,291$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-2.6wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe607…bd2fbacked Yes	1c	4,000$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes	1c	3,998$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.99	150	23.3%35 W · 115 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32f9…9158backed Yes	1c	3,992$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.91	42	2.4%1 W · 41 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	6cpaid	-76.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x920b…d5cdbacked Yes	0c	3,542$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	3,469$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.45	713	5.6%40 W · 673 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe79f…e799backed Yes	0c	3,333$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.6	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x36a6…8ae2backed Yes	12c	3,249$388 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$387.82	27	51.9%14 W · 13 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb92b…57d8backed Yes	1c	2,857$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb196…b14bbacked Yes	15c	2,786$412 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$411.59	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.9wins	-0.46per pick	46cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4f43…9bfebacked Yes	1c	2,772$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.86	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9768…6826backed Yes	15c	2,115$307 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$306.75	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-48.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe537…1eebbacked Yes	30c	2,072$627 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$626.6	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	+2.2wins	+0.13per pick	18cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x566f…9221backed Yes	0c	2,050$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+1.1wins	+0.28per pick	22cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b34…9e82backed Yes	5c	2,047$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	13cpaid	+154.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc946…cfc9backed Yes	1c	2,012$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.12per pick	37cpaid	-62.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	11c	2,000$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$217.44	896	17.1%153 W · 743 L	-57.2wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-35%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1399…3586backed Yes	12c	1,965$242 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$242	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	+1.1wins	+0.10per pick	27cpaid	+30.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes	3c	1,882$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.67	147	7.5%11 W · 136 L	+5.0wins	+0.03per pick	4cpaid	+31.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8374…9149backed Yes	7c	1,871$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.61	79	38%30 W · 49 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes	2c	1,805$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.01	144	2.8%4 W · 140 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-34.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	3c	1,725$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.97	247	6.9%17 W · 230 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	4cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	3c	1,700$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.1	419	5.3%22 W · 397 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	2c	1,597$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.34	492	8.7%43 W · 449 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	5c	1,586$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.8	199	5%10 W · 189 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x47c0…9715backed Yes	3c	1,440$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6be…26a8backed Yes	2c	1,400$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.54	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+1.1wins	+0.19per pick	14cpaid	+131.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5722…7cf6backed Yes	6c	1,377$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.78	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+1.6wins	+0.40per pick	10cpaid	+247.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0280…e729backed Yes	19c	1,331$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6373…69e0backed Yes	1c	1,300$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.08	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	3c	1,300$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.7	462	5%23 W · 439 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a27…4a53backed Yes	5c	1,146$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7a1c…9f78backed Yes	5c	1,020$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xacb5…8330backed Yes	5c	1,000$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	4	25%1 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-68.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf96c…9014backed Yes	5c	996.8$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.84	30	26.7%8 W · 22 L	-4.4wins	-0.15per pick	41cpaid	-43.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0455…d752backed Yes	6c	960.06$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	26cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b2f…f3f6backed Yes	11c	910.74$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-47%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77a0…7fd7backed Yes	18c	891.5$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.72	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfdea…18b4backed Yes	4c	890.41$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+0.9wins	+0.09per pick	21cpaid	+47.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	875.64$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.35	1,558	7.2%112 W · 1,446 L	-35.1wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x133a…8397backed Yes	12c	851.15$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101	57	38.6%22 W · 35 L	+4.9wins	+0.09per pick	30cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes	7c	800$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.77	442	24.4%108 W · 334 L	+22.2wins	+0.05per pick	19cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No	71c	760.49$539 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$221.39	15	60%9 W · 6 L	+2.0wins	+0.13per pick	47cpaid	+15.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Yes	14c	700$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98	40	50%20 W · 20 L	+4.2wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xaabc…fd32backed Yes	9c	671.08$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.5	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb242…4280backed Yes	21c	652.79$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.1wins	-0.18per pick	35cpaid	-71.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x322a…82eebacked Yes	15c	649.35$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes	5c	649.02$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.75	221	7.2%16 W · 205 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd73b…bf60backed Yes	15c	586.67$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.36per pick	36cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x974a…af2bbacked Yes	3c	583.54$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1250…1c47backed Yes	3c	571.43$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x450d…354ebacked Yes	10c	548.96$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.88	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.3wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes	5c	543.58$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.55	501	30.5%153 W · 348 L	+7.9wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33d3…1766backed Yes	19c	523$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	24	41.7%10 W · 14 L	+2.1wins	+0.09per pick	33cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x48ec…8f36backed No	38c	509.71$194 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$315.51	48	60.4%29 W · 19 L	+9.6wins	+0.20per pick	40cpaid	+42.5%equal weight	65+0.13 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	10c	508.75$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.28	413	6.8%28 W · 385 L	-13.6wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb11b…353fbacked Yes	4c	500$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	+0.9wins	+0.06per pick	18cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f31…3279backed Yes	10c	493.06$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	-57.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa516…b2ffbacked Yes	16c	486.6$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.12	14	50%7 W · 7 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed Yes	10c	482.91$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.97	56	46.4%26 W · 30 L	+1.5wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2dac…8156backed Yes	4c	443.56$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.77	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x49f4…b854backed Yes	15c	419.65$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.86	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03bb…033ebacked Yes	12c	413.18$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.8	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+1.3wins	+0.21per pick	12cpaid	+59.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will the US strike Iran next?this page
Will the US not strike another country before 2027?No won
Will the US strike Colombia next?No won
Will the US strike Cuba next?No won
Will the US strike Iraq next?No won
Will the US strike Mexico next?No won
Will the US strike Nigeria next?No won
Will the US strike Somalia next?Yes won
Will the US strike Syria next?No won
Will the US strike Venezuela next?No won
Will the US strike Yemen next?No won
Will the US strike another country first?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will the US strike Iran next?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event