Middle East · resolved market
Will the US strike Syria next?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b824de5f163e2957efd9bc38a09b6639c514a119c387d2bd7cbdd7278e35454
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $357,634
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $244,343
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $357,634 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7bc3…d183backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 12c | 20,769$2,557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,557.2 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 1c | 18,038$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.98 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7661…208abacked Yes | 16c | 15,060$2,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,471.16 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c2…a1b0backed Yes | 2c | 12,065$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d6…908dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,580$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f7…5d56backed Yes | 3c | 9,658$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 4c | 8,778$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.34 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2d…4fa5backed Yes | 1c | 7,000$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.88 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.7wins | -0.41per pick | 52cpaid | -86%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 2c | 6,952$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.83 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b44…264ebacked Yes | 30c | 6,661$1,965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,965.27 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +9.7wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +156.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdb91…9e1dbacked Yes | 2c | 6,563$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 1c | 3,940$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 3,650$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.25 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 5c | 3,588$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.93 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…881bbacked Yes | 2c | 3,519$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.43 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -16.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2b36…473bbacked Yes | 5c | 3,328$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.91 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Yes | 3c | 3,028$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 31c | 2,649$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.61 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x862e…338dbacked Yes | 5c | 2,161$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 2,115$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x725a…c392backed Yes | 26c | 1,923$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 2c | 1,409$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,370$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.15 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf679…c98bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,308$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cfc…a5c2backed Yes | 22c | 1,273$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +82.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…de80backed Yes | 2c | 1,253$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bd…ceaabacked Yes | 20c | 1,236$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.36 | 215 | 37.7%81 W · 134 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 3c | 1,175$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 199 | 5%10 W · 189 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3955…74cabacked Yes | 4c | 1,148$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -6.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 1,100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea4…2bd2backed Yes | 1c | 1,097$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 2c | 1,085$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33d3…1766backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde0d…b6cabacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 2c | 999.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 2c | 999.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 144 | 2.8%4 W · 140 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5d…1614backed Yes | 6c | 990.5$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…23f2backed Yes | 3c | 932.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 4c | 917.36$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 36 | 0%0 W · 36 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8092…b8a2backed Yes | 14c | 909.34$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.36 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 5c | 900$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 875.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 3c | 832.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 147 | 7.5%11 W · 136 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 2c | 799.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 27c | 709.71$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.51 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf7a…acd7backed Yes | 2c | 678.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f46…2a17backed Yes | 3c | 632.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 600$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed Yes | 6c | 599.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 201 | 31.8%64 W · 137 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 595.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 4c | 563.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd27…2807backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf603…82f1backed Yes | 4c | 499.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…eea3backed Yes | 27c | 490.64$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.92 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca97…5409backed Yes | 25c | 487.48$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.92 | 152 | 38.2%58 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea03…2df3backed Yes | 3c | 452.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2455…a70fbacked Yes | 19c | 414.91$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc59f…59abbacked Yes | 5c | 408.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd677…a495backed Yes | 8c | 350.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9e…02b7backed Yes | 26c | 300$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6bc…6b09backed Yes | 7c | 279.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 10c | 269.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb83f…b5b2backed Yes | 8c | 236.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb88…9226backed Yes | 30c | 233.85$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.81 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x641b…5433backed Yes | 18c | 233$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +125.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7a10…9977backed Yes | 13c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -15.7wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d5…53d0backed Yes | 32c | 200$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4742…afe1backed Yes | 41c | 190$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.48 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x564a…af9bbacked Yes | 7c | 168.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | -10.6wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 18c | 166.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31e0…0236backed Yes | 13c | 160$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8963…de64backed Yes | 19c | 160$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +7.1wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +21%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f51…45a3backed Yes | 16c | 123.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1128…cfa5backed Yes | 11c | 109.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa95d…6a82backed Yes | 29c | 108.92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.69 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +802.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50a3…0a78backed Yes | 25c | 98.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f15…fb01backed Yes | 25c | 90$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf4…7021backed Yes | 20c | 81.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 147 | 43.5%64 W · 83 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5875…89c6backed Yes | 25c | 80.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58cc…7bfbbacked Yes | 34c | 44.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +4.8wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed No | 78c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 211 | 60.7%128 W · 83 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 76c | 34.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 161 | 73.9%119 W · 42 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd250…b0a4backed Yes | 33c | 33.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95c7…db78backed Yes | 48c | 27.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US strike Syria next?this page
- Will the US not strike another country before 2027?No won
- Will the US strike Colombia next?No won
- Will the US strike Cuba next?No won
- Will the US strike Iran next?No won
- Will the US strike Iraq next?No won
- Will the US strike Mexico next?No won
- Will the US strike Nigeria next?No won
- Will the US strike Somalia next?Yes won
- Will the US strike Venezuela next?No won
- Will the US strike Yemen next?No won
- Will the US strike another country first?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.