TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will the US strike Syria next?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$357,634
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$244,343

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $357,634 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7bc3…d183backed Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50150%0 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes12c20,769$2,557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,557.251138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes1c18,038$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.982438.2%20 W · 223 L+0.4wins0.00per pick8cpaid-47.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7661…208abacked Yes16c15,060$2,471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,471.161442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.18per pick61cpaid-40.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb8c2…a1b0backed Yes2c12,065$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91d6…908dbacked Yes0c10,580$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5840%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0f7…5d56backed Yes3c9,658$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001010%1 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick7cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9648…6825backed Yes4c8,778$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.3414821.6%32 W · 116 L-24.5wins-0.17per pick38cpaid-61.3%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x9b2d…4fa5backed Yes1c7,000$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.88911.1%1 W · 8 L-3.7wins-0.41per pick52cpaid-86%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x4478…02a4backed Yes2c6,952$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.8328734.5%99 W · 188 L+21.3wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+0.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3b44…264ebacked Yes30c6,661$1,965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,965.277448.6%36 W · 38 L+9.7wins+0.13per pick36cpaid+156.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xdb91…9e1dbacked Yes2c6,563$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1042329.1%123 W · 300 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-12%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x97ea…3363backed Yes1c3,940$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3811859.3%70 W · 48 L+14.5wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+38.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c3,650$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.251,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x853c…bd03backed Yes5c3,588$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.9313441.8%56 W · 78 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x54a7…881bbacked Yes2c3,519$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.435532.7%18 W · 37 L-16.9wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-53.2%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x2b36…473bbacked Yes5c3,328$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.915343.4%23 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d73…be4fbacked Yes3c3,028$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100283.6%1 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick9cpaid-77.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes31c2,649$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824.6127643.5%120 W · 156 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x862e…338dbacked Yes5c2,161$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes1c2,115$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.414928.7%43 W · 449 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x725a…c392backed Yes26c1,923$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes2c1,409$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5867841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes3c1,370$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.152384.6%11 W · 227 L-12.9wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-34.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf679…c98bbacked Yes2c1,308$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27224.5%1 W · 21 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-69.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6cfc…a5c2backed Yes22c1,273$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.25560%3 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick32cpaid+82.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3690…de80backed Yes2c1,253$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.891612.5%2 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick9cpaid-41.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5bd…ceaabacked Yes20c1,236$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.3621537.7%81 W · 134 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+24.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes3c1,175$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.971995%10 W · 189 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3955…74cabacked Yes4c1,148$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50110%0 W · 11 L-6.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c1,100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.27135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ea4…2bd2backed Yes1c1,097$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-1.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7add…f9f4backed Yes2c1,085$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1823839.9%95 W · 143 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33d3…1766backed Yes2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202441.7%10 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick33cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xde0d…b6cabacked Yes2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208339.8%33 W · 50 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick44cpaid+12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x162f…798dbacked Yes2c999.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2216638.6%64 W · 102 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes2c999.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.61442.8%4 W · 140 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-34.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd5d…1614backed Yes6c990.5$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572454.2%13 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-16%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7744…23f2backed Yes3c932.14$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.476341.3%26 W · 37 L+5.6wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes4c917.36$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.74360%0 W · 36 L-5.2wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x8092…b8a2backed Yes14c909.34$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.366939.1%27 W · 42 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes5c900$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.620438.7%79 W · 125 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes2c875.4$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.284625%23 W · 439 L+1.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes3c832.5$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.211477.5%11 W · 136 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+31.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes2c799.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.82476.9%17 W · 230 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes27c709.71$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.5189617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaf7a…acd7backed Yes2c678.69$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f46…2a17backed Yes3c632.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick7cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes2c600$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.84195.3%22 W · 397 L+1.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d85…3a04backed Yes6c599.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.320131.8%64 W · 137 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes4c595.56$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.034136.8%28 W · 385 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-37.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed Yes4c563.1$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-85.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd27…2807backed Yes4c500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205349.1%26 W · 27 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes5c500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.544224.4%108 W · 334 L+22.2wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+19.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf603…82f1backed Yes4c499.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202213.6%3 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick9cpaid-39.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe274…eea3backed Yes27c490.64$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.921637.5%6 W · 10 L-3.0wins-0.19per pick56cpaid-44.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xca97…5409backed Yes25c487.48$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.9215238.2%58 W · 94 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid+36.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea03…2df3backed Yes3c452.96$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0130%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2455…a70fbacked Yes19c414.91$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802231.8%7 W · 15 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick23cpaid-2.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc59f…59abbacked Yes5c408.16$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-38.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd677…a495backed Yes8c350.04$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.488744.8%39 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e9e…02b7backed Yes26c300$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$785046%23 W · 27 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3494…04f4backed Yes5c300$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.962236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+38.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6bc…6b09backed Yes7c279.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202035%7 W · 13 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick25cpaid+20%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes10c269.78$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4585725.2%216 W · 641 L-115.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xb83f…b5b2backed Yes8c236.94$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.353132.3%10 W · 21 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick43cpaid+4.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xeb88…9226backed Yes30c233.85$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.81825%2 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x641b…5433backed Yes18c233$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.16060%36 W · 24 L+7.9wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+125.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7a10…9977backed Yes13c200$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.28835.2%31 W · 57 L-15.7wins-0.18per pick53cpaid-41.7%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xf2d5…53d0backed Yes32c200$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-10.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4742…afe1backed Yes41c190$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.481457.1%8 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x564a…af9bbacked Yes7c168.69$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.275127.5%14 W · 37 L-10.6wins-0.21per pick48cpaid-39.7%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes18c166.07$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7822547.1%106 W · 119 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x31e0…0236backed Yes13c160$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2070%0 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8963…de64backed Yes19c160$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.67365.8%48 W · 25 L+7.1wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+21%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9f51…45a3backed Yes16c123.49$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1128…cfa5backed Yes11c109.05$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.955616.1%9 W · 47 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-44.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa95d…6a82backed Yes29c108.92$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.691070%7 W · 3 L+2.6wins+0.26per pick44cpaid+802.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x50a3…0a78backed Yes25c98.52$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.610645.3%48 W · 58 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+27.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f15…fb01backed Yes25c90$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.513542.9%15 W · 20 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4bf4…7021backed Yes20c81.92$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0414743.5%64 W · 83 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-26.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5875…89c6backed Yes25c80.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-41.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58cc…7bfbbacked Yes34c44.19$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152369.6%16 W · 7 L+4.8wins+0.21per pick49cpaid+47.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc34a…6007backed No78c38$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.3621160.7%128 W · 83 L+14.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+2.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No76c34.21$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.2116173.9%119 W · 42 L+12.6wins+0.08per pick66cpaid+10.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd250…b0a4backed Yes33c33.25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.112835.7%10 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-38.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x95c7…db78backed Yes48c27.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.