TailMyPicks
Market

NBA · resolved market

Pistons vs. Spurs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Spursof Pistons, Spurs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,441,357

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,441,357 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,861 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x07b8…8e25backed Spurs58c325,000$188,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136,750.0123257.8%134 W · 98 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Pistons42c178,571$75,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75,00036549.6%181 W · 184 L-1.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Pistons42c166,034$69,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69,125.3987144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e43…a3cdbacked Pistons41c124,389$51,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,999.6443542.8%186 W · 249 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Spurs66c96,385$63,856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,529.072,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4924…3782backed Pistons43c81,991$35,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,256.2387451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4eef…3fcbbacked Spurs59c74,999$44,249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,749.5611955.5%66 W · 53 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Pistons1c55,977$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.931,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Spurs59c52,954$31,242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,712.14,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Spurs57c50,733$28,918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,815.1366248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a3a…eb9abacked Pistons41c48,780$20,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,00011457.9%66 W · 48 L+6.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6b2…f6e2backed Pistons14c44,107$6,306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,306.312748.1%13 W · 14 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+3.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc29e…a2cabacked Spurs58c35,331$20,492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,839.153148.4%15 W · 16 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-11.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1fa3…ab9cbacked Pistons6c34,781$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00017246.5%80 W · 92 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Pistons42c34,609$14,536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,535.621,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a57…2afabacked Pistons42c27,972$11,748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,748.168944.9%40 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Spurs58c26,830$15,504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,325.614,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7a2…ae70backed Spurs57c26,422$15,061 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,361.4621549.8%107 W · 108 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x901f…74e9backed Spurs58c25,852$14,994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,857.6410046%46 W · 54 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+27%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Spurs60c23,009$13,769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,240.0551354.2%278 W · 235 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76cb…55d3backed Pistons43c21,800$9,374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,374.14445.5%20 W · 24 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Pistons18c20,095$3,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,535.081,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Pistons41c20,000$8,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,2001,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aec…b4cebacked Pistons16c14,669$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4008838.6%34 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Pistons42c12,345$5,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,184.9172648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Pistons40c12,229$4,856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,856.3545850.4%231 W · 227 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3eeb…c387backed Spurs63c12,000$7,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,48020454.9%112 W · 92 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83ab…3d56backed Spurs59c11,634$6,827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,807.139343%40 W · 53 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c1d…3846backed Spurs60c11,000$6,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,4006943.5%30 W · 39 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34fc…050cbacked Pistons40c11,000$4,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,399.978052.5%42 W · 38 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Spurs67c10,726$7,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,575.075,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Pistons0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1067921.4%145 W · 534 L+32.4wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+33.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb75…aaf9backed Spurs60c10,000$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,0007759.7%46 W · 31 L+5.5wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Pistons43c10,000$4,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,30032039.4%126 W · 194 L-1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7320…28b4backed Pistons43c9,913$4,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,262.7612657.1%72 W · 54 L+11.4wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+15.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Pistons1c9,585$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.9364517.1%110 W · 535 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Pistons1c9,473$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.326637.2%99 W · 167 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked Pistons17c9,377$1,549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,549.1248956.4%276 W · 213 L+31.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Pistons41c9,203$3,772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,771.711,16352.8%614 W · 549 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8180…f4dabacked Spurs58c8,621$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,620.6943352.2%226 W · 207 L+19.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Pistons9c8,482$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$780.431,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Pistons17c8,283$1,392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,392.194,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc62c…2c44backed Pistons27c8,085$2,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,155.2511044.5%49 W · 61 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Pistons0c8,042$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.638820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Spurs60c7,520$4,507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,012.741,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Pistons15c6,687$1,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,004.388,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Spurs68c6,314$4,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,032.012,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7af9…b408backed Spurs59c6,151$3,629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,521.856657.6%38 W · 28 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Pistons41c6,098$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50048938.7%189 W · 300 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked Spurs58c6,000$3,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5204868.8%33 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xceec…4ad9backed Pistons9c5,767$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-32.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Spurs58c5,333$3,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,243.389,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65d6…6d6bbacked Spurs58c5,172$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,172.4112844.5%57 W · 71 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc44d…935cbacked Pistons41c5,046$2,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,068.8617162.6%107 W · 64 L+10.1wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+20.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xceb5…3fbfbacked Spurs57c5,030$2,868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,162.36445.3%29 W · 35 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdab4…a27abacked Pistons43c5,000$2,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1508944.9%40 W · 49 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b15…9b08backed Spurs66c5,000$3,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,699.9910239.2%40 W · 62 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-16.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb6b…a33dbacked Pistons1c5,000$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.610914.7%16 W · 93 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-14.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Pistons40c5,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.9934456.7%195 W · 149 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x201c…58bfbacked Spurs57c5,000$2,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,149.9618547%87 W · 98 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0858…612ebacked Spurs60c4,936$2,962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,974.41668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+22.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x49a3…91bbbacked Pistons40c4,450$1,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,779.986347.6%30 W · 33 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94a5…9838backed Spurs58c4,394$2,549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,845.4820947.8%100 W · 109 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21d4…84bdbacked Spurs59c4,338$2,559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,778.647850%39 W · 39 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x258d…6f77backed Pistons40c4,236$1,694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,694.41338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-20.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d5c…4302backed Spurs60c4,202$2,521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,680.6710952.3%57 W · 52 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19be…2541backed Spurs60c4,200$2,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6809758.8%57 W · 40 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe021…e299backed Pistons40c4,200$1,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,679.9110035%35 W · 65 L-7.4wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-21.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x61e0…4b62backed Spurs65c4,005$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,405.1952760%316 W · 211 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Spurs59c4,000$2,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,64087750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Pistons43c4,000$1,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,72079549.7%395 W · 400 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb088…2257backed Spurs60c4,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6002958.6%17 W · 12 L+3.5wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+12.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8c10…8977backed Spurs59c4,000$2,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,64062347.7%297 W · 326 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Pistons43c4,000$1,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,72038649.7%192 W · 194 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Pistons31c4,000$1,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2401,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7900…8a63backed Pistons40c3,976$1,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,590.381540%6 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3d3…bb8ebacked Spurs62c3,904$2,412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,492.3162652.2%327 W · 299 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe952…294dbacked Pistons40c3,765$1,506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5061526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-40.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3417…a9b9backed Spurs60c3,750$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5003745.9%17 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc4c…444cbacked Spurs64c3,609$2,322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,286.596440.6%26 W · 38 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4328…11d2backed Pistons22c3,600$802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80238740.3%156 W · 231 L+0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Spurs58c3,562$2,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,496.0492753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9438…ad81backed Pistons1c3,500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303179.5%30 W · 287 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-59.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb275…65e2backed Spurs60c3,276$1,966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,310.41656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16a9…be44backed Spurs60c3,217$1,930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,286.81656.3%9 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31b0…8c4cbacked Pistons16c3,096$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50011750.4%59 W · 58 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9852…111abacked Spurs59c3,081$1,818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,263.368953.9%48 W · 41 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4a4…3117backed Pistons8c3,055$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.0328616.4%47 W · 239 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9819…47eabacked Pistons40c3,014$1,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,205.591631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06b4…24d8backed Pistons42c3,000$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,260425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick47cpaid-47.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4137…586cbacked Pistons39c3,000$1,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,169.9947043.8%206 W · 264 L-22.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd02c…7822backed Pistons40c2,980$1,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1921625%4 W · 12 L-2.9wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-55.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbc65…96c8backed Pistons43c2,818$1,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,211.8633735.3%119 W · 218 L+1.3wins0.00per pick35cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe714…a286backed Spurs60c2,777$1,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,110.81656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4020…6c6fbacked Spurs59c2,733$1,612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,120.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6aac…ecd6backed Pistons25c2,618$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649.6715838.6%61 W · 97 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d1f…2d9fbacked Spurs77c2,609$2,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$607.244667.4%31 W · 15 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Pistons14c2,545$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.6285344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7022…d8f9backed Spurs60c2,539$1,523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,015.61457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+24.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Pistons14c2,530$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.0581529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.