Us Politics · resolved market
US military action against Iran by Monday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc952d0cfab6d4cf566294602c0e81982def8850f1a6f713c634c9b686872990a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $959,581
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,025,302
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $959,581 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 433 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f58…0ff0backed No | 2c | 84,000$1,910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,910 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…dc48backed No | 73c | 51,004$37,451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37,451.25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x183a…d514backed Yes | 24c | 43,384$10,509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,875.11 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes | 21c | 32,805$6,823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,982.1 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fa…1a14backed Yes | 37c | 28,269$10,436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,833.33 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +3.8wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +277.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdecc…9d36backed No | 72c | 27,653$19,846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,845.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5de…ac1abacked Yes | 27c | 20,381$5,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,881.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +221.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed No | 72c | 19,366$13,886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,885.8 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 25c | 17,765$4,405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,359.86 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea7…79acbacked No | 72c | 16,932$12,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,165.06 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7504…9c69backed No | 61c | 15,930$9,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,700.09 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed No | 41c | 15,530$6,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,335.01 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc0…4353backed Yes | 16c | 15,200$2,427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,773.04 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +104.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1d…63d9backed Yes | 19c | 14,907$2,851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,055.93 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.32per pick | 22cpaid | +155.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2d62…7dbebacked Yes | 34c | 14,562$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,562.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +191.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafe4…62d0backed No | 75c | 14,302$10,755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,755.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x238a…1574backed Yes | 34c | 12,454$4,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,254.21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcffb…a6bebacked No | 68c | 11,700$7,956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,956 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 71c | 11,483$8,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,117.93 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…ab0ebacked No | 80c | 11,464$9,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,134.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes | 55c | 11,450$6,257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,193 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 0c | 8,750$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed No | 64c | 8,727$5,611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,610.75 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…e415backed Yes | 31c | 8,586$2,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,892.37 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…e83fbacked Yes | 21c | 8,407$1,766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,640.58 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 24c | 8,169$1,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,188.43 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 16c | 7,908$1,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,651.54 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…151abacked No | 0c | 7,500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c7…3ff0backed Yes | 35c | 7,202$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,701.85 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 31cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 77c | 7,158$5,516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,516.04 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe49e…55e3backed No | 52c | 7,150$3,717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,717.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +147.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked No | 64c | 7,000$4,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,480 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff3a…9734backed No | 72c | 6,944$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cac…0a0fbacked No | 79c | 6,324$5,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,015.06 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x995f…649bbacked No | 79c | 6,319$4,969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,969.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70c9…cef3backed Yes | 20c | 6,031$1,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,802.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 17cpaid | +176%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ea…6879backed Yes | 23c | 5,663$1,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,348.12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +111.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c0…293bbacked Yes | 36c | 5,574$1,985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,589.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +180.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 23c | 5,323$1,236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,087 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9d…4cc1backed No | 70c | 5,220$3,654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,654 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 70c | 5,027$3,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,508.37 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 31c | 5,000$1,548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,452.2 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80c5…65d1backed No | 71c | 5,000$3,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,549.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7616…69eebacked No | 66c | 4,994$3,317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,316.67 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…a71dbacked Yes | 26c | 4,939$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,639.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +106.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b1…e2e8backed No | 69c | 4,191$2,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,874.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf11d…9c59backed Yes | 35c | 4,133$1,433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,699.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0735…005dbacked Yes | 27c | 3,695$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,694.68 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa239…89d6backed Yes | 27c | 3,654$1,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,651.94 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 29c | 3,631$1,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,569.2 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fda…5b87backed Yes | 14c | 3,616$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,098.1 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7622…0fd0backed Yes | 18c | 3,500$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,876.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.42per pick | 25cpaid | +278.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76e5…2829backed Yes | 16c | 3,269$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,752.32 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a28…3ca9backed No | 77c | 3,203$2,452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,452.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | +205.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c81…f688backed No | 80c | 3,111$2,473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,473.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…f03fbacked Yes | 32c | 3,107$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,106.73 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +522.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 31c | 3,077$957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,120.1 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdcc…7a92backed Yes | 18c | 3,068$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,528.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +468.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe16b…d883backed Yes | 22c | 2,816$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,205.21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c91…9af7backed No | 75c | 2,800$2,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,097.76 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c65…1cdebacked Yes | 17c | 2,791$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,304.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +473.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeba0…ffeabacked Yes | 29c | 2,728$801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,927.48 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +361.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed No | 9c | 2,666$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.94 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +96.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10f6…b926backed No | 72c | 2,650$1,914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,914.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 67c | 2,569$1,714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,713.95 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +7.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77d0…b4aabacked No | 1c | 2,546$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6816…b693backed No | 68c | 2,500$1,696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,696.28 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.21per pick | 60cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4121…7499backed Yes | 22c | 2,386$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,867.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3143…81b1backed No | 68c | 2,350$1,588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,587.92 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 18c | 2,248$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,850.94 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7e…c200backed Yes | 28c | 2,231$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,596.08 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +178.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36fd…c834backed Yes | 25c | 2,180$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,640.34 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1809…4eb7backed Yes | 22c | 2,076$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,619.33 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 48cpaid | +88%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50a4…bdf5backed Yes | 34c | 2,061$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350.62 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 30cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fa…0a56backed No | 80c | 2,024$1,609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,609.27 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,800 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed Yes | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 29c | 2,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,420 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +204.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…89edbacked No | 67c | 2,000$1,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,339.98 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7a…f9edbacked Yes | 28c | 1,975$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,419.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +521%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 20c | 1,969$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,572.53 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…249fbacked No | 72c | 1,915$1,384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,383.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1a…2ffebacked Yes | 16c | 1,903$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,605.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +539.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa724…6f7fbacked No | 75c | 1,893$1,412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,412 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x933b…ba50backed No | 79c | 1,765$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400.42 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4fe…d5eebacked No | 68c | 1,755$1,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,192.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd95…8c17backed Yes | 29c | 1,707$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,206.58 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…3c30backed Yes | 18c | 1,694$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,393.8 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b8…5201backed Yes | 19c | 1,612$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,300.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.55per pick | 12cpaid | +359.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89b8…ea76backed Yes | 21c | 1,583$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,247.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +203.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0c…d03cbacked Yes | 20c | 1,583$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,262.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +393.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x560a…5a47backed No | 65c | 1,570$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 71cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed No | 71c | 1,558$1,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,104.73 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8700…2e44backed Yes | 36c | 1,556$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$991.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe275…f1eebacked Yes | 29c | 1,547$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,099.24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 28cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb83c…92bfbacked No | 78c | 1,518$1,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,183.76 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb7fa…f361backed Yes | 30c | 1,500$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 18c | 1,500$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,230 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 11c | 1,454$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.94 | 111 | 21.6%24 W · 87 L | +11.4wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +179.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6d…3c85backed Yes | 33c | 1,441$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$965.32 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.