World Politics · resolved market
Conservatives win majority in Canadian election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09c314ec8306ecadfd263d7fdef1425a44791547474a92be675c70ae451277ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,322,211
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,142,939
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,322,211 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 766 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd189…06f4backed Yes | 0c | 359,793$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.79 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46ae…2effbacked Yes | 6c | 316,055$20,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,319.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa44e…78f4backed Yes | 7c | 254,256$16,772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,772.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b6…bbd5backed Yes | 8c | 230,632$18,825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,824.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce63…5ce8backed Yes | 9c | 154,006$14,541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,541.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04c3…eb1fbacked Yes | 7c | 102,700$7,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,211 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c38…f662backed Yes | 3c | 96,118$2,926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,926.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x501f…f746backed Yes | 5c | 75,582$3,973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,972.88 | 87 | 26.4%23 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +258.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5626…82b3backed Yes | 7c | 70,818$4,799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,799.23 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a00…8734backed Yes | 6c | 70,596$4,533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,533.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7326…b16ebacked Yes | 5c | 70,116$3,582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,581.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac0…7b9abacked Yes | 6c | 68,218$3,860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,859.87 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 64,713$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.14 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 5c | 63,951$3,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,262.96 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 62c | 60,938$37,882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,055.06 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0405…8a2fbacked Yes | 9c | 56,414$4,936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,936.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed9…febfbacked Yes | 9c | 54,488$5,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,026.38 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fad…1d0abacked Yes | 26c | 54,370$14,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,255.33 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -6.1wins | -0.47per pick | 54cpaid | -89.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 50,227$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.23 | 412 | 1%4 W · 408 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d56…2400backed Yes | 16c | 49,833$7,973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,973.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b82…5e29backed Yes | 10c | 48,306$4,608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,607.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1829…7c25backed Yes | 6c | 45,438$2,577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,577.29 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa47f…375dbacked Yes | 9c | 44,864$3,910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,910.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d60…03d8backed No | 76c | 42,157$32,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,149.03 | 101 | 22.8%23 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97b6…4ed3backed Yes | 7c | 41,009$2,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,780 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f0…10efbacked Yes | 7c | 39,932$2,659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,659.1 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2b…a9abbacked Yes | 9c | 38,871$3,523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,523.07 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebf…a8c8backed Yes | 2c | 36,098$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.82 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…2c6bbacked No | 22c | 36,012$7,882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,129.82 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadf3…6908backed Yes | 26c | 34,479$8,839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,839.32 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ea…6205backed Yes | 9c | 32,655$2,939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,938.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b7…9341backed Yes | 9c | 32,308$3,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,019.54 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes | 9c | 31,407$2,834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,834.16 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe859…36a7backed Yes | 7c | 31,086$2,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,078.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb610…4c6fbacked Yes | 9c | 30,000$2,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,550 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…54d6backed Yes | 9c | 30,000$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked No | 49c | 29,203$14,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,844.38 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa41d…c563backed Yes | 10c | 29,126$3,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,030.31 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3d…cc70backed Yes | 6c | 28,358$1,784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,783.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadf9…b2cbbacked Yes | 7c | 27,520$1,843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,843 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3b…e1e3backed Yes | 6c | 26,403$1,573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,573.28 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc8…041ebacked Yes | 6c | 26,196$1,643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,642.93 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd65…6da7backed Yes | 8c | 25,610$1,986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,986.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a23…73c0backed Yes | 14c | 24,562$3,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,402.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc362…63b2backed Yes | 2c | 24,559$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 48c | 24,113$11,599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,513.98 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…06c6backed Yes | 9c | 23,456$2,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,210.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…e353backed Yes | 7c | 23,362$1,618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,618 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1e…4f25backed Yes | 16c | 21,336$3,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,447.61 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c24…910dbacked Yes | 6c | 21,305$1,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,292.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f3…fa09backed Yes | 11c | 19,970$2,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,247.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed79…5479backed Yes | 14c | 19,811$2,727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,726.7 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d87…c2e9backed Yes | 5c | 19,784$1,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,076.08 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f7…d311backed Yes | 8c | 18,257$1,413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,413 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e88…efaebacked Yes | 5c | 17,694$839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…8b28backed Yes | 11c | 17,154$1,865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,865.4 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ba…0db1backed Yes | 6c | 16,807$949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$948.99 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +816.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b44…6a7bbacked Yes | 7c | 16,764$1,163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,163 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa767…1cb1backed Yes | 4c | 16,479$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5c…ecf0backed Yes | 10c | 16,037$1,562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,562.09 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…5ccebacked No | 23c | 15,784$3,702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,082.81 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22f7…b0f6backed Yes | 7c | 15,578$1,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeada…9c3cbacked Yes | 6c | 15,417$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$898.04 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd993…e755backed Yes | 12c | 15,410$1,917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,917.44 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x301a…d762backed Yes | 8c | 15,143$1,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,149.28 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -70%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2de6…f360backed Yes | 18c | 15,089$2,714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,714.31 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f5…743abacked Yes | 9c | 14,984$1,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,304.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7edd…2c6abacked Yes | 7c | 14,374$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…ef6fbacked No | 45c | 14,273$6,466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,807.14 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8b…f894backed Yes | 42c | 14,103$5,856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,856.26 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc5…6064backed Yes | 7c | 13,567$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a07…74aebacked Yes | 9c | 13,439$1,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,152.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c2…5ba5backed Yes | 6c | 13,308$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e83…54d7backed Yes | 7c | 13,119$879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dfb…9dc4backed Yes | 6c | 12,909$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad1…5d7cbacked Yes | 10c | 12,778$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed No | 73c | 12,490$9,117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,372.74 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | +9.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…d651backed Yes | 6c | 12,392$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddfb…359fbacked Yes | 1c | 12,283$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.3 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22b6…34cabacked Yes | 5c | 12,239$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -74%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68f2…3d2bbacked Yes | 6c | 12,059$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c6…a550backed Yes | 6c | 12,025$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd3…41f8backed Yes | 7c | 11,864$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…4cd8backed Yes | 9c | 11,611$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,044.99 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e7…6014backed Yes | 10c | 11,500$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d84…1ababacked Yes | 16c | 11,419$1,835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,835.32 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d67…be7cbacked Yes | 7c | 11,202$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.64 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…ea5abacked No | 77c | 11,186$8,617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,568.94 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed No | 52c | 11,090$5,734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,355.81 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 76c | 10,967$8,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,645.87 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x440d…55e6backed No | 15c | 10,952$1,609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,342.18 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a8…0bfcbacked Yes | 23c | 10,761$2,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,493.08 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa907…9bd3backed Yes | 5c | 10,656$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc98a…2a0cbacked Yes | 7c | 10,537$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.01 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac92…67efbacked Yes | 67c | 10,469$6,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,995.01 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd54…e55abacked Yes | 8c | 10,157$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$812.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 77c | 10,100$7,791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,308.79 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9943…16e1backed Yes | 10c | 10,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfb…71a6backed Yes | 15c | 10,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb496…72c7backed Yes | 12c | 10,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.