TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Conservatives win majority in Canadian election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,322,211
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,142,939

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,322,211 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 766 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd189…06f4backed Yes0c359,793$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.791127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-57.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46ae…2effbacked Yes6c316,055$20,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,319.7930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa44e…78f4backed Yes7c254,256$16,772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,772.4430%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5b6…bbd5backed Yes8c230,632$18,825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,824.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce63…5ce8backed Yes9c154,006$14,541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,541.0720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04c3…eb1fbacked Yes7c102,700$7,211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,21160%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c38…f662backed Yes3c96,118$2,926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,926.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x501f…f746backed Yes5c75,582$3,973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,972.888726.4%23 W · 64 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick28cpaid+258.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5626…82b3backed Yes7c70,818$4,799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,799.2350%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a00…8734backed Yes6c70,596$4,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,533.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7326…b16ebacked Yes5c70,116$3,582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,581.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ac0…7b9abacked Yes6c68,218$3,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,859.87812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick29cpaid-67.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c64,713$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.144521.1%5 W · 447 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+156.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes5c63,951$3,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,262.966883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No62c60,938$37,882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,055.0616744.3%74 W · 93 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0405…8a2fbacked Yes9c56,414$4,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,936.3320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ed9…febfbacked Yes9c54,488$5,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,026.382425%6 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-32.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fad…1d0abacked Yes26c54,370$14,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,255.33137.7%1 W · 12 L-6.1wins-0.47per pick54cpaid-89.9%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c50,227$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.234121%4 W · 408 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+171.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d56…2400backed Yes16c49,833$7,973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,973.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b82…5e29backed Yes10c48,306$4,608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,607.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1829…7c25backed Yes6c45,438$2,577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,577.29140%0 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa47f…375dbacked Yes9c44,864$3,910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,910.1120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d60…03d8backed No76c42,157$32,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,149.0310122.8%23 W · 78 L-9.5wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-52.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x97b6…4ed3backed Yes7c41,009$2,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,78020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0f0…10efbacked Yes7c39,932$2,659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,659.1714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-64.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2b…a9abbacked Yes9c38,871$3,523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,523.0740%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ebf…a8c8backed Yes2c36,098$802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801.82540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a61…2c6bbacked No22c36,012$7,882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,129.825131.4%16 W · 35 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+81.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xadf3…6908backed Yes26c34,479$8,839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,839.321526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93ea…6205backed Yes9c32,655$2,939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,938.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6b7…9341backed Yes9c32,308$3,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,019.541225%3 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes9c31,407$2,834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,834.164517.8%8 W · 37 L-4.3wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-59.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe859…36a7backed Yes7c31,086$2,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,078.5630%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb610…4c6fbacked Yes9c30,000$2,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,55040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f86…54d6backed Yes9c30,000$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,7001717.6%3 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick30cpaid-45.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked No49c29,203$14,359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,844.387650%38 W · 38 L+6.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+18.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa41d…c563backed Yes10c29,126$3,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,030.31128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-74.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e3d…cc70backed Yes6c28,358$1,784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,783.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadf9…b2cbbacked Yes7c27,520$1,843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,84320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc3b…e1e3backed Yes6c26,403$1,573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,573.28100%0 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4dc8…041ebacked Yes6c26,196$1,643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,642.9340%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd65…6da7backed Yes8c25,610$1,986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,986.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a23…73c0backed Yes14c24,562$3,402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,402.230%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc362…63b2backed Yes2c24,559$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.6220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No48c24,113$11,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,513.9827828.1%78 W · 200 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x44f0…06c6backed Yes9c23,456$2,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,210.3730%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc323…e353backed Yes7c23,362$1,618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,61870%0 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d1e…4f25backed Yes16c21,336$3,448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,447.61520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-46.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c24…910dbacked Yes6c21,305$1,293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,292.8730%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6f3…fa09backed Yes11c19,970$2,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,247.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed79…5479backed Yes14c19,811$2,727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,726.7742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d87…c2e9backed Yes5c19,784$1,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,076.08100%0 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7f7…d311backed Yes8c18,257$1,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,41330%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e88…efaebacked Yes5c17,694$839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$838.5920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcba5…8b28backed Yes11c17,154$1,865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,865.4260%0 W · 26 L-3.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa5ba…0db1backed Yes6c16,807$949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$948.99175.9%1 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick9cpaid+816.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b44…6a7bbacked Yes7c16,764$1,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,16320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa767…1cb1backed Yes4c16,479$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.73333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-49.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c5c…ecf0backed Yes10c16,037$1,562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,562.0990%0 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3b7b…5ccebacked No23c15,784$3,702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,082.81633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-7.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x22f7…b0f6backed Yes7c15,578$1,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,03920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeada…9c3cbacked Yes6c15,417$898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$898.0470%0 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd993…e755backed Yes12c15,410$1,917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,917.4440%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x301a…d762backed Yes8c15,143$1,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,149.28812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-70%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2de6…f360backed Yes18c15,089$2,714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,714.311338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick28cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7f5…743abacked Yes9c14,984$1,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,304.45333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7edd…2c6abacked Yes7c14,374$995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$994.6220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x047b…ef6fbacked No45c14,273$6,466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,807.141650%8 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+90.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc8b…f894backed Yes42c14,103$5,856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,856.265036%18 W · 32 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+39.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4cc5…6064backed Yes7c13,567$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a07…74aebacked Yes9c13,439$1,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,152.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84c2…5ba5backed Yes6c13,308$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e83…54d7backed Yes7c13,119$879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87930%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dfb…9dc4backed Yes6c12,909$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-47.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ad1…5d7cbacked Yes10c12,778$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,250128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-81.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed No73c12,490$9,117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,372.7411247.3%53 W · 59 L+9.7wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+2.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x05be…d651backed Yes6c12,392$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddfb…359fbacked Yes1c12,283$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.3267.7%2 W · 24 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-66.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22b6…34cabacked Yes5c12,239$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660.12520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-74%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68f2…3d2bbacked Yes6c12,059$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90c6…a550backed Yes6c12,025$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bd3…41f8backed Yes7c11,864$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05f7…4cd8backed Yes9c11,611$1,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,044.99100%0 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5e7…6014backed Yes10c11,500$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,15040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d84…1ababacked Yes16c11,419$1,835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,835.3250%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d67…be7cbacked Yes7c11,202$787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$786.6440%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…ea5abacked No77c11,186$8,617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,568.943455.9%19 W · 15 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick66cpaid-18.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed No52c11,090$5,734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,355.816642.4%28 W · 38 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-11%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed No76c10,967$8,321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,645.8725337.2%94 W · 159 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x440d…55e6backed No15c10,952$1,609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,342.183333.3%11 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1a8…0bfcbacked Yes23c10,761$2,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,493.08728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-44.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa907…9bd3backed Yes5c10,656$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc98a…2a0cbacked Yes7c10,537$698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$698.0160%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xac92…67efbacked Yes67c10,469$6,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,995.0160%0 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdd54…e55abacked Yes8c10,157$813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$812.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed No77c10,100$7,791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,308.798047.5%38 W · 42 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9943…16e1backed Yes10c10,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bfb…71a6backed Yes15c10,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb496…72c7backed Yes12c10,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.