TailMyPicks
Market

Us Politics · resolved market

Trump declassifies Diddy list?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$401,187
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$478,989

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $401,187 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 193 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x011d…3d2fbacked Yes16c25,370$3,986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,986.161910.5%2 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick11cpaid-55%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10b3…40d4backed Yes28c20,122$5,537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,536.64833.3%16 W · 32 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes9c9,400$856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$855.9912910.9%14 W · 115 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-44.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed No79c9,307$7,393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,914.1616943.2%73 W · 96 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe60c…a6a0backed Yes19c6,897$1,344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3441729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick23cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x65fb…92cabacked Yes11c6,208$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$712.5340%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60b2…3ccebacked No75c6,024$4,522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,501.958143.2%35 W · 46 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid+3.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d31…9862backed Yes14c5,511$747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$746.793941%16 W · 23 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+38%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x46c7…c0f2backed Yes13c4,885$652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651.562913.8%4 W · 25 L-3.4wins-0.12per pick25cpaid-63.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No77c4,775$3,653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,121.8317544.6%78 W · 97 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd653…ba9abacked No71c4,121$2,927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,194.772250%11 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No65c4,069$2,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,424.1523149.4%114 W · 117 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x449f…913bbacked No80c4,048$3,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$825.961546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-34.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed No65c3,745$2,434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,310.8211848.3%57 W · 61 L+13.0wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+41.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x534b…b321backed Yes30c3,613$1,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,083.981741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2880…fa70backed Yes14c3,276$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.679641.7%40 W · 56 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xca3e…f2fabacked Yes13c3,200$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4242065%13 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+36.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc658…b784backed Yes14c3,090$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.67041.4%29 W · 41 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x691b…fce0backed No76c2,936$2,243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$692.41825%2 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-66.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8dc6…62e0backed No70c2,494$1,746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$748.183732.4%12 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick34cpaid+3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2588…dc27backed No75c2,421$1,805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$616.41633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-17.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes12c2,376$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.1714241.5%59 W · 83 L+9.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+18.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd863…4df2backed No80c2,000$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4001154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick48cpaid-22.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9777…2a8dbacked Yes10c2,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x023e…4f21backed No80c1,948$1,558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.6616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-79.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x562a…3d9cbacked Yes25c1,900$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4691711.8%2 W · 15 L-2.6wins-0.15per pick27cpaid-62.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8bc5…a867backed Yes31c1,900$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.851050%5 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+14.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe96f…109bbacked Yes11c1,818$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+291.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8870…6578backed Yes10c1,816$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.96633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick21cpaid+75.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5be…a613backed Yes21c1,640$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.561090%9 W · 1 L+3.8wins+0.38per pick52cpaid+96.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7e59…bd66backed Yes1c1,591$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2459…8d76backed No79c1,484$1,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.1912531.2%39 W · 86 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-37.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x291a…dbfdbacked Yes34c1,461$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10e0…781abacked Yes35c1,435$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-27.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4558…a2b3backed Yes10c1,416$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.64052.5%21 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-17%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No78c1,412$1,096 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.5937533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x461a…4030backed No73c1,406$1,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.735433.3%18 W · 36 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2938…ed24backed Yes20c1,264$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.8425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96a4…4d01backed No71c1,210$858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.612516%4 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-74.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x907e…83c6backed Yes11c1,200$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137450%2 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+127.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x09d7…1b55backed Yes15c1,100$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.5185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick11cpaid-76%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bb4…8167backed No11c1,016$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$904.532646.2%12 W · 14 L+8.3wins+0.32per pick14cpaid+308.4%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x4451…c6afbacked Yes13c1,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1303023.3%7 W · 23 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48d3…30babacked No79c955$751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.457943%34 W · 45 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-24.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa448…79c1backed Yes20c937.94$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1871637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ce6…26bdbacked Yes10c937.57$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.762626.9%7 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+79.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12c0…7bd8backed No69c928.46$641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.828219.5%16 W · 66 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4616…a910backed Yes12c910$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.293237.5%12 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-28.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5dc…0d98backed Yes18c900$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.5955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.24per pick31cpaid+52.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No71c896.25$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.915451.9%28 W · 26 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed Yes36c872.73$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.0915238.8%59 W · 93 L-13.5wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-27.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x7820…02aebacked Yes14c854.39$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.251643.8%7 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick29cpaid+18%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ce3…9a2ebacked Yes12c833.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd86b…edc1backed Yes22c829.84$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.37250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-34.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb97d…b68cbacked Yes12c813$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.861942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc104…a5c0backed No79c785.71$624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.31366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e14…3003backed Yes15c770.95$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.316221%13 W · 49 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bae…2e92backed Yes11c755.67$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.129846.9%46 W · 52 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+32.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe34a…5e71backed No71c733.44$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.491330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-53.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe828…3dd4backed Yes25c725$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.45540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb68f…613fbacked Yes30c662.72$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200560%3 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick28cpaid+85.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc59f…c364backed No71c650$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1902653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd14c…6262backed Yes17c647.06$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid+85.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b88…d628backed Yes7c642$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.943737.8%14 W · 23 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+94.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x99d7…d918backed Yes16c631.31$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.767432.4%24 W · 50 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93b4…cbfdbacked No77c630.86$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.78646.5%40 W · 46 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cd7…0643backed Yes26c614$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.852544%11 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick37cpaid-10.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e9a…1acdbacked Yes16c607.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick33cpaid-33.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8da3…8a67backed No65c600$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21011950.4%60 W · 59 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2023…2d55backed Yes27c591.67$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.094814.6%7 W · 41 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-60.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa386…a3aebacked Yes16c584.72$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$933225%8 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes30c551.55$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.983859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2510…334abacked Yes20c546.85$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.4650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68e9…caf0backed Yes14c546.44$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick35cpaid+121.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e8e…0cc4backed Yes11c535.85$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.963423.5%8 W · 26 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick16cpaid+22.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf274…4ddbbacked Yes2c522.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf422…6743backed Yes20c509.53$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004119.5%8 W · 33 L-6.5wins-0.16per pick35cpaid-48.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xbed0…77c7backed Yes23c509.28$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.196137.7%23 W · 38 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa283…9c9cbacked Yes26c500.89$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.63714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.34per pick48cpaid-79.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf478…aaa2backed No66c500$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-52.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf555…b2d5backed Yes6c500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303511.4%4 W · 31 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-52.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb59…0a22backed No77c493.98$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.898150.6%41 W · 40 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x207a…6fecbacked No78c462.36$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.622934.5%10 W · 19 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-25.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe78e…55f0backed Yes11c454.55$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502552%13 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+62.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf482…f341backed Yes11c445.45$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-61.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes5c441.81$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8196319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes12c438.59$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.6317225%43 W · 129 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x39e8…e34ebacked Yes10c420$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick25cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7362…2469backed Yes12c416.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502429.2%7 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0760…c72ebacked Yes12c416.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid+2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d26…a627backed Yes13c384.62$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No72c374.37$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.351,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf38b…df47backed Yes12c353.85$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-64.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee0d…66f4backed Yes26c353.85$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1492…97dabacked No78c351.91$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.023333.3%11 W · 22 L-4.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-35.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Yes6c333$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.98348.8%3 W · 31 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+65%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d13…a018backed No79c333$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.932339.1%9 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-32.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c5a…3f05backed Yes33c306.03$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003414.7%5 W · 29 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-71.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7722…ee4bbacked Yes9c300$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No65c300$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10513556.3%76 W · 59 L+13.4wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+18.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.