Us Politics · resolved market
Trump imposes 40% tariff on China in first 100 days?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3ea135352ea36f6c3098e729862d795d0f847df542dae31cee355d64d943aab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,142,692
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,282,285
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,142,692 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 372 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e96…9971backed Yes | 23c | 154,505$36,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118,456.77 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 75c | 44,588$33,489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,488.54 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 13c | 43,995$5,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38,375.3 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…997bbacked Yes | 3c | 42,513$1,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41,365.15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +667.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 53c | 41,248$21,806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,441.68 | 88 | 20.5%18 W · 70 L | -7.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f72…83adbacked No | 74c | 22,152$16,459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,459.29 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 8c | 21,211$1,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,586.58 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…ea5abacked No | 77c | 18,868$14,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,510.31 | 21 | 85.7%18 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54a1…ec5dbacked Yes | 6c | 15,000$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,069.98 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +112.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddb8…7690backed Yes | 18c | 14,914$2,612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,301.07 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 79c | 12,175$9,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,609.91 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49d3…ea4ebacked Yes | 8c | 12,115$953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,162.25 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7709…5852backed Yes | 9c | 11,695$1,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,630.37 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 25c | 11,341$2,861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,480.26 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed No | 74c | 9,401$6,991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,991.02 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes | 17c | 8,050$1,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,705 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 67c | 7,860$5,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,228.41 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5983…64a8backed Yes | 10c | 7,105$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,370.34 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 73c | 7,073$5,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,180.81 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 73c | 6,780$4,975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,975.14 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed No | 78c | 5,619$4,383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,382.68 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5923…a3f7backed No | 75c | 5,538$4,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,156.48 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 7c | 4,800$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,470.49 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf4…ce9dbacked No | 77c | 4,580$3,509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,508.58 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6902…678cbacked No | 75c | 4,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…658cbacked Yes | 12c | 3,817$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,356.7 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked No | 77c | 3,240$2,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500.73 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 79c | 3,157$2,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,493.81 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4d…f703backed No | 75c | 3,000$2,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,260 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed Yes | 3c | 2,964$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,872.12 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf123…686fbacked No | 80c | 2,950$2,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,360 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0d…38a1backed No | 76c | 2,601$1,975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,974.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14dd…13eebacked Yes | 5c | 2,514$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,385.13 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6459…c926backed No | 79c | 2,500$1,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,969.92 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes | 25c | 2,109$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,589.6 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 9c | 2,097$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,905.5 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed No | 45c | 2,053$914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913.87 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked No | 74c | 2,008$1,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,486.99 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed No | 74c | 2,000$1,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,480 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4b34backed No | 72c | 2,000$1,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,443.46 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21b6…b5bcbacked Yes | 29c | 1,995$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,416.45 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 49cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 1,946$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,714.34 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed No | 78c | 1,811$1,413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,412.6 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89fc…b5c2backed Yes | 5c | 1,800$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,703.97 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 14cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe08d…d5d4backed Yes | 20c | 1,783$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,428.18 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked No | 80c | 1,738$1,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,389.76 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked No | 58c | 1,730$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.58 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d79…ae69backed Yes | 23c | 1,697$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,306.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb1…8b46backed No | 78c | 1,591$1,236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,235.91 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c9…9955backed Yes | 13c | 1,544$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,343.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb34…59eabacked Yes | 26c | 1,539$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,138.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5d…6be6backed Yes | 12c | 1,465$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,284.5 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1b…c4c1backed Yes | 17c | 1,337$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,112.22 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 16c | 1,242$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.96 | 111 | 20.7%23 W · 88 L | +10.9wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +212.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 16c | 1,210$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,022.27 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 1,202$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,104.28 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb16e…e2d6backed No | 76c | 1,190$904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$904.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.6wins | -0.52per pick | 72cpaid | -75%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 16c | 1,118$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 111 | 21.6%24 W · 87 L | +11.4wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +179.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb78b…5d40backed Yes | 19c | 1,050$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.99 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397f…616cbacked No | 76c | 1,027$782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 6c | 1,000$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8182…7cf5backed Yes | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 5c | 971.51$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$924.43 | 177 | 13%23 W · 154 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 78c | 951.73$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.36 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…73a1backed No | 75c | 950$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.5 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed No | 66c | 933$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.81 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed No | 76c | 930$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.18 | 80 | 57.5%46 W · 34 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ef…05bebacked Yes | 22c | 911.86$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 30cpaid | +107%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a3…007ebacked Yes | 6c | 848.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +1,597.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Yes | 44c | 832.28$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.36 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x78cf…dbc0backed Yes | 7c | 830$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$768.95 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed No | 55c | 802.73$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.21 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 18c | 800$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.1 | 150 | 32.7%49 W · 101 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37fc…d74bbacked Yes | 13c | 769.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 19cpaid | +237.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe9…8308backed Yes | 36c | 710$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.44 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +7.7wins | +0.20per pick | 39cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8979…bcd6backed No | 78c | 700$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc17b…eef1backed No | 76c | 700$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd188…f605backed No | 76c | 657.89$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -52%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed No | 77c | 639.43$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.54 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4947…d6fabacked Yes | 5c | 625.22$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.46 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x377e…a9d3backed Yes | 16c | 625$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…0446backed Yes | 16c | 625$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…edafbacked No | 72c | 621$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.26 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bd…a4f1backed No | 78c | 600$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked No | 74c | 600$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 8c | 591.08$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.76 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7e…d8afbacked No | 77c | 588.48$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.2 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 12c | 563.26$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.27 | 170 | 21.2%36 W · 134 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc6…c602backed Yes | 18c | 556$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.92 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce6…26bdbacked Yes | 11c | 544.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.28 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…07aabacked Yes | 30c | 532$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.66 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x555f…012bbacked Yes | 12c | 523.33$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.33 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +127.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd89b…7945backed Yes | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 75c | 499.99$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.12 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…97aabacked No | 75c | 487.92$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.3 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked Yes | 38c | 484.44$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.07 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Yes | 38c | 483.25$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.26 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eac…3600backed Yes | 13c | 473.42$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.45 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb80d…b4a3backed No | 76c | 460.53$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab22…cc2bbacked Yes | 23c | 441.74$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.