TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Trump imposes 40% tariff on China in first 100 days?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,142,692
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,282,285

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,142,692 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 372 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9e96…9971backed Yes23c154,505$36,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118,456.771717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick27cpaid-46.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed No75c44,588$33,489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,488.5415646.8%73 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc658…b784backed Yes13c43,995$5,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,375.37041.4%29 W · 41 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd228…997bbacked Yes3c42,513$1,148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,365.15540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+667.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes53c41,248$21,806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,441.688820.5%18 W · 70 L-7.1wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-58.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6f72…83adbacked No74c22,152$16,459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,459.291931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-40.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes8c21,211$1,624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,586.5869634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcbbc…ea5abacked No77c18,868$14,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,510.312185.7%18 W · 3 L+3.3wins+0.16per pick70cpaid+28.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x54a1…ec5dbacked Yes6c15,000$930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,069.981758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+112.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xddb8…7690backed Yes18c14,914$2,612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,301.071428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick31cpaid+39.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No79c12,175$9,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,609.9120446.6%95 W · 109 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49d3…ea4ebacked Yes8c12,115$953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,162.253514.3%5 W · 30 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick9cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7709…5852backed Yes9c11,695$1,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,630.371513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb8e…b243backed Yes25c11,341$2,861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,480.263652.8%19 W · 17 L+5.4wins+0.15per pick38cpaid+29.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed No74c9,401$6,991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,991.0217225%43 W · 129 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes17c8,050$1,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,7055928.8%17 W · 42 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed No67c7,860$5,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,228.414436.4%16 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5983…64a8backed Yes10c7,105$735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,370.341560%9 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+53.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed No73c7,073$5,181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,180.818453.6%45 W · 39 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed No73c6,780$4,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,975.1437844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed No78c5,619$4,383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,382.682839.3%11 W · 17 L-4.4wins-0.16per pick55cpaid-22.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5923…a3f7backed No75c5,538$4,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,156.481450%7 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+19.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes7c4,800$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,470.492847.7%22 W · 262 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadf4…ce9dbacked No77c4,580$3,509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,508.583030%9 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-31.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6902…678cbacked No75c4,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0002650%13 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6fd…658cbacked Yes12c3,817$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,356.74332.6%14 W · 29 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked No77c3,240$2,501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,500.735442.6%23 W · 31 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid+6.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed No79c3,157$2,494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,493.8112630.2%38 W · 88 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+105.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e4d…f703backed No75c3,000$2,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,260850%4 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22cc…ef97backed Yes3c2,964$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,872.127129.6%21 W · 50 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+52.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf123…686fbacked No80c2,950$2,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3603125.8%8 W · 23 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-29.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a0d…38a1backed No76c2,601$1,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,974.99650%3 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick64cpaid+12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14dd…13eebacked Yes5c2,514$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,385.13119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick6cpaid+77.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6459…c926backed No79c2,500$1,970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,969.92560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes25c2,109$519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,589.66740.3%27 W · 40 L+5.9wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+22.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes9c2,097$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,905.53859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed No45c2,053$914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$913.871338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick54cpaid-40.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x60b2…3ccebacked No74c2,008$1,487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,486.998143.2%35 W · 46 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid+3.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed No74c2,000$1,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,48011848.3%57 W · 61 L+13.0wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+41.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2139…4b34backed No72c2,000$1,443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,443.468632.6%28 W · 58 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick25cpaid-13.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x21b6…b5bcbacked Yes29c1,995$579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,416.45683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.34per pick49cpaid+79.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes12c1,946$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,714.3496319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3d3…d424backed No78c1,811$1,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,412.67740.3%31 W · 46 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+20.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x89fc…b5c2backed Yes5c1,800$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,703.973023.3%7 W · 23 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick14cpaid+72.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe08d…d5d4backed Yes20c1,783$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,428.181450%7 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+53.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb3cc…a23abacked No80c1,738$1,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,389.765532.7%18 W · 37 L-7.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-34.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf2aa…21fbbacked No58c1,730$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.585349.1%26 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d79…ae69backed Yes23c1,697$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,306.71366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+87.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xabb1…8b46backed No78c1,591$1,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,235.91966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick63cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6c9…9955backed Yes13c1,544$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,343.25250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+284.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb34…59eabacked Yes26c1,539$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,138.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+284.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d5d…6be6backed Yes12c1,465$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,284.51827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick40cpaid+5.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3e1b…c4c1backed Yes17c1,337$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,112.221216.7%2 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick8cpaid-27.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No16c1,242$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.9611120.7%23 W · 88 L+10.9wins+0.10per pick11cpaid+212.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes16c1,210$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,022.2713943.2%60 W · 79 L+0.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes8c1,202$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,104.281,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb16e…e2d6backed No76c1,190$904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$904.4520%1 W · 4 L-2.6wins-0.52per pick72cpaid-75%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed No16c1,118$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18011121.6%24 W · 87 L+11.4wins+0.10per pick11cpaid+179.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb78b…5d40backed Yes19c1,050$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$849.991323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick19cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x397f…616cbacked No76c1,027$782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$782.06250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick78cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed No6c1,000$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6128320.5%58 W · 225 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8182…7cf5backed Yes14c1,000$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8602133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid+13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed Yes5c971.51$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$924.4317713%23 W · 154 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed No78c951.73$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$745.3616725.1%42 W · 125 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x64d7…73a1backed No75c950$709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$708.54953.1%26 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84f8…0ff2backed No66c933$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613.816346%29 W · 34 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+25.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf42f…a6a7backed No76c930$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704.188057.5%46 W · 34 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41ef…05bebacked Yes22c911.86$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$707.16366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick30cpaid+107%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb3a3…007ebacked Yes6c848.82$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$798.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.94per pick6cpaid+1,597.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Yes44c832.28$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.3610749.5%53 W · 54 L+10.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+61.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x78cf…dbc0backed Yes7c830$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$768.95922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick27cpaid+67.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd6b…68f5backed No55c802.73$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.218737.9%33 W · 54 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+15.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Yes18c800$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.115032.7%49 W · 101 L+7.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-17.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x37fc…d74bbacked Yes13c769.23$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$669.23366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick19cpaid+237.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3fe9…8308backed Yes36c710$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.443959%23 W · 16 L+7.7wins+0.20per pick39cpaid+32.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x8979…bcd6backed No78c700$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5491450%7 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc17b…eef1backed No76c700$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick66cpaid-50.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd188…f605backed No76c657.89$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-52%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed No77c639.43$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.549248.9%45 W · 47 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4947…d6fabacked Yes5c625.22$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592.46385.3%2 W · 36 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-46.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x377e…a9d3backed Yes16c625$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid+4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8f0…0446backed Yes16c625$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5253531.4%11 W · 24 L-5.2wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-31.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe75f…edafbacked No72c621$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.266246.8%29 W · 33 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-8.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc3bd…a4f1backed No78c600$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46830%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb8e4…2daebacked No74c600$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4422245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-19.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes8c591.08$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.7623149.4%114 W · 117 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf7e…d8afbacked No77c588.48$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.21816.7%3 W · 15 L-2.7wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-69.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes12c563.26$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.2717021.2%36 W · 134 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbc6…c602backed Yes18c556$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.921435.7%5 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ce6…26bdbacked Yes11c544.14$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.282626.9%7 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+79.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57c5…07aabacked Yes30c532$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.664057.5%23 W · 17 L+5.8wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+15.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x555f…012bbacked Yes12c523.33$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.33560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick34cpaid+127.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd89b…7945backed Yes70c500$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1504231%13 W · 29 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick36cpaid+6.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No75c499.99$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.1218445.1%83 W · 101 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc2a…97aabacked No75c487.92$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.34146.3%19 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-23.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a72…f81dbacked Yes38c484.44$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.078741.4%36 W · 51 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb59…0a22backed Yes38c483.25$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.268150.6%41 W · 40 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8eac…3600backed Yes13c473.42$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413.453023.3%7 W · 23 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-34.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb80d…b4a3backed No76c460.53$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3501376.9%10 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick67cpaid+26.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xab22…cc2bbacked Yes23c441.74$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.74333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid+47.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.