TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Trump declassifies UFO files in first 100 days?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$349,367
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$469,175

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $349,367 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 224 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes0c9,999$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202847.7%22 W · 262 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e28…dc83backed Yes30c9,682$2,933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,933.31127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed No79c9,446$7,482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,964.0116943.2%73 W · 96 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x82a0…33a1backed Yes2c8,767$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.847420.3%15 W · 59 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-54.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63a6…f308backed Yes2c5,376$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.831040%4 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick31cpaid-37.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes0c5,196$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.445635.7%20 W · 36 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-23.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe28…1745backed Yes19c5,174$1,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,005.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed Yes3c5,062$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.5116854.8%92 W · 76 L+22.8wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+56%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No78c4,952$3,874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,078.6799629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe6fd…658cbacked Yes20c4,472$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9004332.6%14 W · 29 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c39…505ebacked Yes22c4,187$910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$910.5520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-53.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x088d…63b0backed Yes17c4,123$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$697.14425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe60c…a6a0backed Yes13c4,001$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.681729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick23cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf311…fe1bbacked Yes21c3,817$806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$806.2690%0 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2459…8d76backed No77c3,152$2,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$711.6512531.2%39 W · 86 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-37.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x23ce…17dabacked Yes15c3,075$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.41837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32d0…2418backed No77c2,800$2,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6362240.9%9 W · 13 L-3.6wins-0.16per pick57cpaid-19.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x6459…c926backed No72c2,435$1,758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$677.55560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes24c2,419$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.0113145.8%60 W · 71 L+8.0wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+6.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No73c2,064$1,501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.8217544.6%78 W · 97 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e38…61b5backed Yes14c2,029$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2801625%4 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4451…c6afbacked Yes7c2,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1403023.3%7 W · 23 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbce9…1120backed Yes15c1,989$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick9cpaid+1,941.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc23b…24f9backed Yes19c1,945$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.54450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes17c1,925$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3364045%18 W · 22 L+4.6wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+67.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes24c1,901$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.4423639.4%93 W · 143 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf478…aaa2backed No69c1,782$1,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.82933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-52.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1498…1caebacked Yes12c1,700$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2041136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick27cpaid-4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3143…81b1backed No74c1,693$1,245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.235756.1%32 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf18b…2e0ebacked Yes17c1,692$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x758a…4893backed Yes20c1,683$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3293050%15 W · 15 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3069…f8efbacked No70c1,559$1,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.356354%34 W · 29 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d7a…b5f7backed Yes18c1,537$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.092825%7 W · 21 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-42%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a98…efb4backed Yes19c1,531$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2023…2d55backed Yes21c1,494$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.834814.6%7 W · 41 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-60.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8dc6…62e0backed Yes26c1,485$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.983732.4%12 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick34cpaid+3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No70c1,429$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.575451.9%28 W · 26 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4bf4…7021backed No73c1,405$1,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.144755.3%26 W · 21 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7820…02aebacked Yes13c1,317$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.351643.8%7 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick29cpaid+18%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x562a…3d9cbacked Yes30c1,279$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.471711.8%2 W · 15 L-2.6wins-0.15per pick27cpaid-62.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xad28…1601backed No75c1,272$954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3184731.9%15 W · 32 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-43.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f3d…b666backed Yes17c1,176$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x183a…f78cbacked Yes25c1,172$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6d8…e6afbacked Yes17c1,144$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed No70c1,074$749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.1815238.8%59 W · 93 L-13.5wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-27.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xb0c1…1b90backed Yes11c1,006$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.421330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick21cpaid+0.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0523…e38bbacked No76c1,000$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2406833.8%23 W · 45 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-40.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9048…6fddbacked Yes19c967.22$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.27616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick12cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x094e…f10bbacked Yes18c967.05$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.039347.3%44 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93b4…cbfdbacked No75c932.07$702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.448646.5%40 W · 46 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3790…6973backed Yes23c855.49$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xded5…d9cabacked Yes14c836.58$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.127825.6%20 W · 58 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-26.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x53a8…4b54backed Yes21c814.35$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.491822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-40.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes14c784.78$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.59810.2%10 W · 88 L-5.9wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-60.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc2a…97aabacked No73c783.11$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.934146.3%19 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-23.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6367…e938backed No74c770$573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.669426.6%25 W · 69 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick22cpaid-6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c17…4f7fbacked Yes23c762.51$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60eb…a6d8backed Yes19c752.41$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.532119%4 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick16cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1f0…e173backed No80c750$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1502927.6%8 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-36.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No73c740.02$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.6223149.4%114 W · 117 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf5e…4168backed No69c700$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2172025%5 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-31.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf62c…f445backed Yes18c685.28$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1202626.9%7 W · 19 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6ff…c5ecbacked Yes25c660.38$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.7650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdf7…0426backed No77c650$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.5650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-32.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x351a…06a7backed Yes27c600$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1611816.7%3 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-47.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed No61c500$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.023860.5%23 W · 15 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+34.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x86a5…5ac2backed Yes26c500$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1302030%6 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x65fb…92cabacked Yes11c499.97$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5540%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ce6…26bdbacked Yes24c497.69$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.452626.9%7 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+79.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes24c463.68$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.417225%43 W · 129 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd316…c8cfbacked Yes29c437.9$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.76425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-44.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f3f…0468backed Yes23c434.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-39.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48d3…30babacked No77c416.73$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.857943%34 W · 45 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-24.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7a25…81d1backed No71c400$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1163253.1%17 W · 15 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+15.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xab72…a119backed Yes22c399.99$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick32cpaid-83.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a72…f81dbacked Yes23c397.48$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.778741.4%36 W · 51 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked Yes16c385.22$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.6414742.9%63 W · 84 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+48.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0685…b548backed Yes23c382.24$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes18c359.99$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.71526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-59.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c349.84$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.781,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4562…0d99backed Yes31c322.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7662…7930backed No70c305.65$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.32060%12 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x126f…7137backed Yes16c300$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482548%12 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x444e…01d0backed Yes33c300$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$994042.5%17 W · 23 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x524c…f3aabacked Yes22c300$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef43…7b62backed Yes17c299.99$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51296.9%2 W · 27 L-4.0wins-0.14per pick21cpaid-58.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9f78…6987backed Yes26c292.86$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3486…49eebacked No70c285.71$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.71812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-82.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ecc…9d9cbacked Yes14c280.53$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.94250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-27%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7704…a121backed Yes39c258.13$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.67825%2 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-43.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f00…7addbacked No76c256.99$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.19450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-35.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes5c255.29$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.522154.2%9 W · 206 L-8.5wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-37.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc490…6507backed No80c250$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick29cpaid+5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79e7…f41fbacked Yes21c245.37$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.623917.9%7 W · 32 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-15.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbdbb…346cbacked Yes13c227.98$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3060%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed No71c220.8$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.413525.9%35 W · 100 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-37.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfebb…877bbacked Yes14c219.78$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301723.5%4 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick24cpaid-47.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a44…6d3fbacked Yes24c217$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.082846.4%13 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb732…5462backed Yes40c202.41$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801040%4 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-16.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fce…2566backed No70c200$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606126.2%16 W · 45 L-8.3wins-0.14per pick40cpaid-48.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.