Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in January 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeab1bb38e11385a22a87d27dac9a91e1ad371064535d197d7c4fdc5dceac5fba

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 19, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $117,590
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $92,450

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $117,590 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes	0c	12,222$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.44	87	19.5%17 W · 70 L	+5.9wins	+0.07per pick	13cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	8c	8,006$622 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$622.18	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61a3…b1e5backed Yes	1c	4,390$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	66	6.1%4 W · 62 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-74.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	3,993$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.58	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes	5c	2,456$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.39	83	12%10 W · 73 L	+2.6wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe37b…0e27backed Yes	0c	2,329$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	64	17.2%11 W · 53 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-54.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	2,106$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.54	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5dd…af6dbacked Yes	5c	2,039$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.95	57	0%0 W · 57 L	-4.5wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes	3c	1,974$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.85	130	14.6%19 W · 111 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11d3…7471backed Yes	3c	1,485$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.25	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x915b…2729backed Yes	2c	1,153$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	122	18.9%23 W · 99 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e3c…8b7cbacked Yes	2c	1,101$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac64…0dd2backed Yes	3c	1,084$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	150	17.3%26 W · 124 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecf8…603bbacked Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	29	10.3%3 W · 26 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-40.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbefc…ab5fbacked Yes	2c	984.11$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	3c	976.55$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.74	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42f6…e7e4backed Yes	2c	955.66$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0067…446fbacked Yes	2c	932.75$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	53	9.4%5 W · 48 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	+44.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	840.9$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.75	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	3c	833.65$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.8	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd898…aaf1backed Yes	7c	749.96$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	43	9.3%4 W · 39 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b9d…68dbbacked Yes	3c	627.78$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.53	122	13.9%17 W · 105 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	3c	544.5$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.98	175	6.9%12 W · 163 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+45.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8048…f48dbacked Yes	7c	479.21$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.54	42	4.8%2 W · 40 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86aa…c663backed Yes	12c	423.71$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb451…7040backed Yes	12c	401.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.31per pick	19cpaid	+96.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa96…9592backed Yes	6c	399.99$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	30	23.3%7 W · 23 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+52.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	7c	373.16$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.88	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	4c	358.81$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.98	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf728…1632backed Yes	12c	309.79$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.68	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	-3.0wins	-0.10per pick	26cpaid	-37.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	4c	306.89$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.15	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d19…c745backed Yes	4c	300$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0de…c23abacked Yes	7c	287.42$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf78a…9f65backed Yes	6c	207.98$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.92	133	12.8%17 W · 116 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0982…92c6backed Yes	7c	199.99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	109	14.7%16 W · 93 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x087c…5c55backed Yes	11c	188.75$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.17per pick	17cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe68d…f5b2backed Yes	11c	174.98$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	73	20.5%15 W · 58 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	9c	160.64$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.46	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x44b8…6459backed Yes	10c	157.12$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.71	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-1.4wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c29…6fffbacked Yes	13c	156.79$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	181	10.5%19 W · 162 L	-10.4wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xab26…9656backed Yes	7c	150.29$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.21	262	24%63 W · 199 L	-6.1wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9cb…b97abacked Yes	12c	127.19$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.17per pick	17cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ed3…0527backed Yes	10c	110$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-85.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	9c	110$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb25f…a460backed Yes	10c	100.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2377…1481backed Yes	12c	85.25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	172	8.7%15 W · 157 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in January 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event