Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in January 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4191a91df1adcece99f8fc2dae53dbe1a6a154b36a1654214d273e3a5bc8dc76

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 16, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $116,355
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $81,345

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $116,355 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x61a3…b1e5backed Yes	0c	13,182$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	66	6.1%4 W · 62 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-74.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	4,022$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.53	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	6c	3,465$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$217.53	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11d3…7471backed Yes	2c	3,044$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.55	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44b8…6459backed Yes	6c	2,096$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.97	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-1.4wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd5dd…af6dbacked Yes	2c	2,039$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.78	57	0%0 W · 57 L	-4.5wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	1,027$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.02	2,160	3.9%85 W · 2,075 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xecf8…603bbacked Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	29	10.3%3 W · 26 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-40.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34a6…558bbacked Yes	5c	999.92$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	181	23.8%43 W · 138 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8048…f48dbacked Yes	6c	899.97$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	42	4.8%2 W · 40 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd898…aaf1backed Yes	5c	749.98$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.5	43	9.3%4 W · 39 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes	7c	417.65$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.26	130	14.6%19 W · 111 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	4c	391.44$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.43	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	8c	163.9$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.11	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	8c	161.58$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.69	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2377…1481backed Yes	7c	136.75$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	172	8.7%15 W · 157 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4986…aacbbacked Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-1.4wins	-0.10per pick	17cpaid	-85.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in January 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event