TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in January 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$183,557
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$197,681

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $183,557 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1af3…2ddcbacked No0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90ed…b5bcbacked No1c8,975$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.998719.5%17 W · 70 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-41.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6467…7cadbacked Yes60c4,517$2,708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,809.291546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x573c…9d85backed Yes45c3,151$1,418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,733.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8082…f32ebacked No0c3,120$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe68d…f5b2backed Yes69c2,815$1,942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$873.417320.5%15 W · 58 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61a3…b1e5backed No2c2,778$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60666.1%4 W · 62 L-0.2wins0.00per pick6cpaid-74.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No30c2,753$836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$836.4531565.1%205 W · 110 L-1.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No3c2,587$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.721,0535.6%59 W · 994 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked No21c1,958$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.4360127.3%164 W · 437 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb79f…d749backed No1c1,932$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4160%0 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfee2…6580backed Yes49c1,867$918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$948.9321028.6%60 W · 150 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x395b…abcebacked No55c1,851$1,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,018.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x012d…9db6backed Yes60c1,815$1,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$724.69825%2 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x915b…2729backed No3c1,685$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.2312218.9%23 W · 99 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+12.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked No3c1,671$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.692595.4%14 W · 245 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No2c1,640$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.694916.7%33 W · 458 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed No3c1,514$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.582114.7%10 W · 201 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-19.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed No2c1,382$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5613014.6%19 W · 111 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-50.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80c7…e50ebacked No55c1,300$715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No3c1,241$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.236915.5%38 W · 653 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No2c1,097$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.72,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce7e…e65fbacked Yes80c1,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8c4…848dbacked No6c999.99$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566097.7%47 W · 562 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No21c928.39$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.6426167%175 W · 86 L+0.3wins0.00per pick67cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf243…5fb4backed No38c917.12$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.576415.6%10 W · 54 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-57.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5113…f0babacked Yes25c809.46$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$607.09450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+69.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2aa1…dba8backed Yes60c752.57$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.352927.6%8 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x719e…0a21backed Yes45c741$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+121.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ad2…e985backed No2c725$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.51488.8%13 W · 135 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick6cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No38c720.8$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.263060%18 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad0c…df3cbacked Yes47c680$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.4728034.3%96 W · 184 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f1f…feaebacked No3c648.09$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.042218.2%4 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-50.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa956…666fbacked No3c588.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206521.5%14 W · 51 L-5.7wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-53%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No8c586.7$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.381756.9%12 W · 163 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+45.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9def…e94ebacked No55c581$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f7a…0e63backed No4c555.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick20cpaid+114.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes74c530.44$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.149740.2%39 W · 58 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes20c506.15$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.9270616.4%116 W · 590 L-13.6wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed No4c500$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.72794.7%13 W · 266 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba47…a89bbacked No4c428.1$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c30…a7fcbacked Yes42c411.92$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.47450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+155.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fb1…17d7backed Yes29c390.42$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.063818.4%7 W · 31 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-27.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x92d3…17adbacked No39c382.55$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1503417.6%6 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid+38.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd81d…20f7backed Yes60c328.4$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.423063.3%19 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+22%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb06d…5a44backed Yes29c325.79$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+239.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2816…c473backed Yes51c313.07$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.39156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick14cpaid-87%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a44…5e33backed Yes59c308.86$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.543246.9%15 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-27.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3eb1…a0ebbacked No36c276.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf728…1632backed Yes47c271.67$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.073116.1%5 W · 26 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No23c270.89$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.2478811.5%91 W · 697 L-33.7wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4b04…6632backed Yes72c270$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.93237.5%12 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+72%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No38c263.84$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.771770.6%12 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8327…66dfbacked Yes79c253.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.161457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+34.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb451…7040backed Yes25c235.76$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.76250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+96.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc88f…46d0backed Yes45c223.8$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3481…6b3cbacked Yes56c222.45$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.558915.7%14 W · 75 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick17cpaid+7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed No9c200$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182615.4%14 W · 247 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No77c200$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.51275%9 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick73cpaid+1.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x228a…2a55backed No41c198.79$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.71540%6 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ec7…a9edbacked Yes51c195.65$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.65333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-34.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa71…1bcbbacked Yes33c193.33$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.063318.2%6 W · 27 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick15cpaid-21.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2601…61a9backed Yes42c191.51$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.08250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+19%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9efc…eadbbacked Yes31c190.21$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.49250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+62%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf78a…9f65backed No39c178.3$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.0713312.8%17 W · 116 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-46.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd026…d74bbacked Yes73c171.6$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.93333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-54.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb52d…1cb8backed No55c160$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9f1…137cbacked Yes78c159.45$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.452642.3%11 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-18.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8048…f48dbacked No52c150$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78424.8%2 W · 40 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes48c141.48$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.48312%10 W · 73 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick9cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x225c…b0fabacked Yes79c136.97$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.76757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09d6…7416backed Yes41c121.99$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.981926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-42%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa414…d03dbacked Yes49c115.14$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.68333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-32%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x028d…dc79backed Yes33c111.97$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.66812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-62.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdff5…4e7dbacked Yes19c105.26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.26616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick13cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x555c…ee28backed No70c100$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707410.8%8 W · 66 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick13cpaid+14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0049…6034backed No52c99.99$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick57cpaid+9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44b8…6459backed No48c93.14$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.58140%0 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes63c92.55$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.8813430.6%41 W · 93 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+20.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c94…5b86backed Yes26c89.99$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+284.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbf0…fdbebacked Yes28c83.01$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.9120532.7%67 W · 138 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x087c…5c55backed Yes30c80.91$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.32333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick17cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13cf…d8cebacked Yes46c80$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.23517.1%6 W · 29 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick11cpaid+96.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd6d…b0fbbacked Yes24c75.35$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.35728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick19cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3bf6…93e1backed Yes42c75.34$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+136.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dbc…18a0backed Yes71c70.42$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.424427.3%12 W · 32 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick21cpaid-1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d27…bd5abacked Yes76c65.79$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.7911834.7%41 W · 77 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-27.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b97…7d38backed Yes79c63.61$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.61475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+31.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b34…7eb8backed Yes37c60$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.818118.8%34 W · 147 L-0.6wins0.00per pick19cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e66…0d3abacked Yes34c59.47$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.4733415.6%52 W · 282 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9cb…b97abacked Yes29c51.72$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.72333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick17cpaid+14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4938…4d58backed Yes73c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x774f…8779backed Yes52c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.25238.7%2 W · 21 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick7cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0905…99adbacked No80c50$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010434.6%36 W · 68 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c9d…5d14backed Yes30c49.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.821225%3 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3eae…79b0backed Yes60c48.63$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.452100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+295.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaaa7…ccc1backed Yes73c47.95$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.951233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+313.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2377…1481backed Yes65c46.15$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.151728.7%15 W · 157 L+0.3wins0.00per pick9cpaid-18.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes29c44.43$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.7351018.2%93 W · 417 L-89.7wins-0.18per pick36cpaid-49.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x4c5d…0049backed No34c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick24cpaid+170.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.