TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf728…1632

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
48
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: La Liga, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.01 per pick).

Best Category La Liga at 52 out of 100; worst Tweets at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jan 19, 2026, EST3116.1%5 W · 26 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Tweets — the 31 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$127Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+114.6%+$145.07
Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$37.68
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$276Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+79.4%+$219.04
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$36.29
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$11.27
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$218Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$217.92
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$95.32
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$159.59
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$488Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$488.33
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$18.88
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$41.93
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$28.44
Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in December 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$524Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST+45.7%+$239.27
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$26.48
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$18.8
Will Elon Musk post 1320-1359 tweets in December 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$16
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$227Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST+84.3%+$190.89
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST-100%-$37.93
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST-100%-$18.86
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST-100%-$25.02
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$13
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+1,121%+$224.2
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Showing 25 of 31 picks, newest first.
Chess Inactivelast resolved Dec 30, 2025, EST633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-33.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Chess — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Dec 14, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-12-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+63.6%+$54.08
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 26, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST+52.1%+$20.53
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SBV Excelsior vs. PEC Zwolle: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+37%+$7.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Dec 25, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spotify's top song on Christmas be 'All I Want For Christmas Is You'?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST+32.6%+$6.53
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Dec 19, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST+28.2%+$56.41
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.