TailMyPicks
Market

Chess · resolved market

Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 FIDE World Rapid Open Championship?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$70,632
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$80,898

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,632 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Chess
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0ced…12b2backed Yes46c9,305$4,262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,043.21136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-31.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa81e…03dcbacked No41c4,720$1,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,949.852433.3%8 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-38.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed No50c3,872$1,945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,944.793330.3%10 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bcb…b05abacked No1c2,600$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2450%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd986…1320backed Yes37c2,108$786 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,322.125232.7%17 W · 35 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-36.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb24…ac2cbacked No1c2,000$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-17.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x187b…8848backed No54c1,888$1,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,017.75540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf72c…f818backed Yes41c1,842$751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,091.15633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf9f…f6a3backed Yes60c1,799$1,076 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$722.77850%4 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-15.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7aa5…6292backed No60c1,776$1,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,061.192313%3 W · 20 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-66.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fa6…0b3bbacked Yes77c1,565$1,211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4167…2427backed No40c1,541$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.4714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-63.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ca7…31a2backed No55c1,523$832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$831.831833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid+5,506%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe654…1782backed No62c1,485$918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x24a5…b3bbbacked No20c1,346$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.07911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18ea…f348backed Yes44c1,139$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.29560%3 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.36per pick24cpaid+122.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x97ae…82bdbacked No56c1,000$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.23147.1%1 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick22cpaid-86.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xffd4…0f95backed Yes56c1,000$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4401118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-68%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6277…d68abacked Yes54c929.99$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.791338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-28.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1985…8cbdbacked Yes72c897.43$645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.432100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+86.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x67a7…86cebacked No56c749.29$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.63511.4%4 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-76.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2aa1…dba8backed Yes46c726.17$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.172213.6%3 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-75.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb52c…450cbacked Yes66c718.96$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.81361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.15per pick47cpaid+20.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8350…1439backed No65c671.75$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x36bf…2864backed No40c654.99$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.0911631%36 W · 80 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf584…d8dabacked Yes57c527$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.61475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+22.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9399…a30cbacked Yes38c526.31$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x227c…a303backed No2c519.24$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed No40c482.94$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195767.9%6 W · 70 L-12.3wins-0.16per pick24cpaid-66.8%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked Yes43c479.65$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.66616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-61.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8820…0118backed Yes77c469.83$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4ae…93ecbacked Yes44c421.75$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.441540%6 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc468…009dbacked No3c404.85$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.742619.2%5 W · 21 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-22.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed No60c401.44$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.861216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-59.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked No56c400$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc6e…3435backed Yes48c398.72$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe693…72c5backed No51c373.78$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2544…f319backed No43c346.91$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.1720%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes39c323.28$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.97441.9%31 W · 43 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Yes45c311.11$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.11475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick38cpaid+83.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x985b…ce2cbacked Yes44c299.98$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9738backed Yes41c274.18$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.771136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-28.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e8c…bb4abacked Yes39c265.46$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.882025%5 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-27%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f57…242ebacked No44c227.95$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001625%4 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+123.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d5c…aad0backed Yes44c227.73$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.732100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+115.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6149…8a58backed Yes39c222.85$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.314553.3%24 W · 21 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+28.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f20…086abacked Yes44c216.91$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.71633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4be5…c1b3backed No56c206.44$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.67728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-52.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No60c200$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.46540%2 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick63cpaid-40.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e31…a728backed Yes53c188.3$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.3475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.38per pick37cpaid+104.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7057…a052backed No57c186.55$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.92333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-37.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x919d…60e1backed No42c185.14$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8217…4936backed No55c178.43$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.18333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid+197.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3673…7c89backed Yes50c178.05$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.012917.2%5 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-42.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes37c177.23$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.061757.4%13 W · 162 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-42.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfe9a…cf52backed No43c175$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.570%0 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x432e…cc4fbacked Yes44c174.31$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.31366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+47.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9c1…c1b8backed Yes58c172.18$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.18250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02d7…0c39backed No47c162.65$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.95837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick20cpaid+97.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0845…6b6fbacked No53c152.28$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.7120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7602…2775backed No54c128.4$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.3820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe348…ef84backed No29c125.1$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.28616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-69.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa94…395fbacked Yes80c125$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-41.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4933…1195backed Yes54c123.55$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.523100%3 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+226.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaeb5…649cbacked Yes42c119.53$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+139.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc357…3684backed Yes45c115$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.25333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f5d…91dbbacked Yes44c102.48$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.483100%3 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+126.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes38c101.6$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.573414.7%5 W · 29 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-53.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc32f…cb35backed Yes40c100.4$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0edd…3db1backed No44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5025…dd30backed Yes35c100$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x50d7…e193backed No65c100$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68d8…af58backed Yes30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed No25c98.7$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1912313%16 W · 107 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-24%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c23…d044backed Yes38c98.42$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.422100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+135%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x45c5…558dbacked Yes37c91.27$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.5650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb410…7736backed No43c91.09$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.28450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fa6…03ebbacked No25c90$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-35.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01d0…4afdbacked No26c90$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac9f…598ebacked Yes14c88.04$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.86per pick14cpaid+622.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca14…11bebacked Yes40c87.68$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.691540%6 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+117.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c7f…fe62backed Yes47c85.11$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.112100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+89.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8655…59eabacked No59c83.64$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No52c81.08$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.42944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-31%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc3c…e38bbacked No58c79.99$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.39616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick44cpaid-50.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed No35c77.31$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.04540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95b6…d6a8backed Yes40c74.88$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6845…3ae6backed Yes46c74.34$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.032100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+97.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xab53…c351backed Yes40c74.3$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.58540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44fa…ddabbacked Yes59c68.37$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.03580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+26.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No49c64.67$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.565750.9%29 W · 28 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf2b…cb02backed Yes79c63.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe096…9779backed No66c60.61$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Yes48c60$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.2540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f4e…d241backed Yes57c60$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.82100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+91.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0643…7b30backed No68c58.3$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.481010%1 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick22cpaid-60.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b7a…4817backed No71c55.94$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.761947.4%9 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bf4…e644backed Yes58c54.19$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+73.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes61c54.07$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.9511011.8%13 W · 97 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-60.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a2d…9a11backed Yes43c51.53$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.