Chess · resolved market

Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 FIDE World Rapid Open Championship?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x577c922d516b2a037b0145d5176de923747a04cd982c9e037338992106d5eaa6

Rebuilt 8 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 28, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $10,402
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $6,322

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,402 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Chess
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes	1c	2,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc468…009dbacked Yes	3c	1,131$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.88	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	+1.7wins	+0.07per pick	13cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe145…51febacked Yes	3c	750.09$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.61	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes	2c	572.81$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.62	123	13%16 W · 107 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-24%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes	9c	529.52$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.68	33	30.3%10 W · 23 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe9a…cf52backed Yes	9c	305$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.55	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.7wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xffd4…0f95backed Yes	5c	300$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.6	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	25cpaid	-68%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3bf…1cf6backed Yes	9c	270.43$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.05per pick	20cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	8c	222.96$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.91	175	7.4%13 W · 162 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-42.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xecf0…2924backed Yes	12c	177.39$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.46	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x880c…440abacked Yes	7c	156.77$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	115	39.1%45 W · 70 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e9f…16b6backed Yes	13c	148.79$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.49	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes	14c	83.33$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	76	7.9%6 W · 70 L	-12.3wins	-0.16per pick	24cpaid	-66.8%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 FIDE World Rapid Open Championship?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event