Chess · resolved market

Will Vladislav Artemiev win the 2025 FIDE World Rapid Open Championship?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0893c4cf9b4190919d58d7edd741d53db0ba4fbff48226e2997b0e10c774b25b

Rebuilt 21 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 28, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $29,410
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $16,850

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,410 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Chess
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xa81e…03dcbacked Yes	4c	8,814$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$319.97	24	33.3%8 W · 16 L	+1.4wins	+0.06per pick	28cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes	1c	5,368$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.89	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes	15c	1,627$243 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$243.19	33	30.3%10 W · 23 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7e4…f06fbacked Yes	1c	1,474$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.74	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.07per pick	33cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ec…998cbacked Yes	2c	1,147$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xffd4…0f95backed Yes	21c	1,025$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$217.22	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	25cpaid	-68%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc468…009dbacked Yes	2c	1,000$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	+1.7wins	+0.07per pick	13cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb52c…450cbacked No	77c	807.18$625 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$182.08	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	+1.9wins	+0.15per pick	47cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2744…1e7fbacked Yes	29c	663.76$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.55	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes	6c	604.64$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.23	123	13%16 W · 107 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-24%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4be5…c1b3backed Yes	22c	499.99$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.09per pick	38cpaid	-52.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	9c	497.07$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.62	175	7.4%13 W · 162 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-42.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xb1a0…c18cbacked No	77c	473.09$366 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$106.94	65	55.4%36 W · 29 L	+3.9wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes	16c	268.41$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	76	7.9%6 W · 70 L	-12.3wins	-0.16per pick	24cpaid	-66.8%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0x3673…7c89backed Yes	32c	265.35$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85	29	17.2%5 W · 24 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a2b…2030backed No	68c	250$170 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80	31	38.7%12 W · 19 L	+1.3wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x804d…cf86backed Yes	5c	234.34$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.78	5	40%2 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xab53…c351backed Yes	30c	156.81$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.37	5	40%2 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes	9c	149$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.83	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f2b…596bbacked Yes	8c	134.72$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.37	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes	15c	104.62$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.08	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.13per pick	47cpaid	+16.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36bf…2864backed No	70c	100$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	116	31%36 W · 80 L	+7.6wins	+0.07per pick	24cpaid	+8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x89b5…ab4cbacked No	72c	100$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.06	52	23.1%12 W · 40 L	-2.6wins	-0.05per pick	28cpaid	-57.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x45c5…558dbacked Yes	34c	89.32$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.37	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.6wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No	77c	87.42$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.97	57	50.9%29 W · 28 L	+2.1wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ccc…4368backed Yes	23c	87.34$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+1.1wins	+0.37per pick	29cpaid	+111.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdac1…7249backed Yes	22c	63.9$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.79	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-72.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b09…e4c2backed Yes	37c	54.05$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.6wins	-0.39per pick	39cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes	29c	50$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.5	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.9wins	-0.38per pick	38cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x28b2…eb4fbacked No	66c	30$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.17	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.4wins	+0.29per pick	51cpaid	+36.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe4cf…78c4backed No	78c	15$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.3	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.22per pick	78cpaid	+28.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Vladislav Artemiev win the 2025 FIDE World Rapid Open Championship?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event