TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x95b6…d6a8

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
18
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: World Politics, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 56 out of 100; worst NFL at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 24, 2025, EST944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick25cpaid+136.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$928Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$927.93
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$139.55
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$381Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+122.5%+$466.66
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$218Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$218
Will Nicușor Dan win by 0–6%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$199Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$198.78
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$112.06
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT+1,150%+$514.28
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$118Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT+231.8%+$272.46
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$718Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT+221.1%+$1,588.61
All 9 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Dec 23, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+96.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Pistons vs. Trail Blazersbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+117.4%+$36.59
Knicks vs. Pacersbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST+75.2%+$47.15
All 2 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Dec 23, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: LNG Esports vs Weibo Gaming - Game 1 Winnerbacked Weibo Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$57.95
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Team WE (BO3)backed Invictus Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+58.9%+$39.9
All 2 picks, newest first.
Chess Inactivelast resolved Dec 28, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Chess — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 FIDE World Rapid Open Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+150%+$44.93
All 1 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Asian League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kashima Antlers win on 2026-05-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$98.16
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Dec 26, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
New Mexico vs. Minnesotabacked New Mexico · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST-100%-$24.58
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Dec 26, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Morocco win on 2025-12-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST-100%-$18.1
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Dec 19, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rams vs. Seahawksbacked Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$16.57
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.