TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Rams vs. Seahawks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Seahawksof Rams, Seahawks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,758,686
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,086,346

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,758,686 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,527 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0d3b…c46bbacked Seahawks54c2,113,292$1,138,303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$974,988.9211145.9%51 W · 60 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Rams46c1,411,797$642,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642,989.886547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2643…39aebacked Seahawks54c323,870$174,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148,980.22065%13 W · 7 L+3.3wins+0.17per pick48cpaid+44.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5350…2fdabacked Rams46c319,780$148,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148,082.814250%21 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Seahawks76c290,352$221,766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68,586.416955%93 W · 76 L+15.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4259…936fbacked Rams48c250,000$119,629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119,628.996248.4%30 W · 32 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Rams46c190,090$86,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86,540.4827454.7%150 W · 124 L+13.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe74a…40eebacked Seahawks55c181,793$99,986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81,806.63850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+15.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x869b…c625backed Rams47c178,923$84,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84,093.8130%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Rams46c140,000$64,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64,099.9724957%142 W · 107 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed Seahawks21c127,151$26,395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100,755.8610026%26 W · 74 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0549…c052backed Rams46c112,000$51,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51,5205855.2%32 W · 26 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Seahawks53c111,111$58,889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52,222.1717454.6%95 W · 79 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x90ab…ded1backed Rams70c93,845$65,714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65,714.272556%14 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+29.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Seahawks54c87,000$46,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,02028447.5%135 W · 149 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Rams46c85,000$38,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,727.6131240.7%127 W · 185 L-22.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9158…fa7bbacked Rams47c80,000$37,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,60011445.6%52 W · 62 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Rams46c75,578$34,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,458.0912144.6%54 W · 67 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Seahawks45c72,455$32,351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,104.875852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Seahawks15c71,608$10,563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61,044.6120026%52 W · 148 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ca8…bf49backed Rams47c70,976$33,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,358.71936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4335…fc2fbacked Rams47c69,000$32,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,10011168.5%76 W · 35 L+18.5wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+34.3%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Seahawks59c61,636$36,416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,219.730043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Rams48c60,000$29,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,999.9516051.9%83 W · 77 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc3e…37efbacked Rams49c47,744$23,594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,593.667736.4%28 W · 49 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Seahawks52c45,937$23,887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,049.589359.1%55 W · 38 L+10.2wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+22.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Seahawks26c45,448$11,592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,856.3873651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Rams47c44,452$21,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,111.7654451.7%281 W · 263 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Rams55c41,948$23,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,217.4420755.1%114 W · 93 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Seahawks51c41,670$21,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,445.4519152.9%101 W · 90 L+0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Rams48c38,912$18,767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,767.1747738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d16…d24dbacked Seahawks64c36,550$23,392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,157.947951.9%41 W · 38 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Seahawks40c33,986$13,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,476.150242.4%213 W · 289 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe916…4563backed Seahawks52c32,242$16,857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,384.976965.2%45 W · 24 L+9.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+30.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Seahawks54c31,623$17,076 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,546.418650%93 W · 93 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x490e…73adbacked Seahawks40c30,389$12,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,357.31241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Seahawks33c30,000$9,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,049.9113654.4%74 W · 62 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Rams49c27,742$13,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,482.1224056.7%136 W · 104 L+19.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Rams51c27,727$14,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,021.4227644.2%122 W · 154 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x88a2…d974backed Seahawks47c27,525$13,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,495.0713142%55 W · 76 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Seahawks53c26,818$14,213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,604.947348.4%229 W · 244 L+1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8a8…a48ebacked Seahawks53c25,769$13,706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,063.456459.4%38 W · 26 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+38.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Rams47c25,759$12,197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,197.0827348.7%133 W · 140 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x245b…00c5backed Rams47c25,000$11,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,749.955850%29 W · 29 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1894…9720backed Seahawks56c22,678$12,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,978.5728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67f9…d241backed Rams51c21,471$10,876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,876.47219.5%2 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-42%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Rams54c21,164$11,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,464.6783147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Rams47c20,000$9,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,40030743.6%134 W · 173 L-1.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d12…7954backed Seahawks47c20,000$9,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,6001100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Seahawks47c19,937$9,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,473.2168446.1%315 W · 369 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Seahawks65c18,900$12,285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,615.4214349%70 W · 73 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7244…22bcbacked Rams46c18,000$8,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,28010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Seahawks53c18,000$9,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,46026547.2%125 W · 140 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Seahawks2c17,324$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,977.9333328.5%95 W · 238 L+16.7wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+19.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4f4b…bb93backed Seahawks70c16,389$11,514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,874.24771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick65cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Rams46c16,000$7,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,36012944.2%57 W · 72 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Seahawks53c15,000$7,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,05035848.6%174 W · 184 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc62a…c2c7backed Rams46c15,000$6,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,90040%0 W · 4 L-2.4wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xedf0…1e2abacked Rams51c15,000$7,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,6002740.7%11 W · 16 L-3.3wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-23.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x447e…9710backed Rams45c15,000$6,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,7501323.1%3 W · 10 L-3.3wins-0.25per pick49cpaid-56.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Seahawks55c15,000$8,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,749.961,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Seahawks37c14,275$5,223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,052.239853.1%52 W · 46 L+9.1wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+10.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc24e…7730backed Seahawks53c13,901$7,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,533.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27f2…702cbacked Rams58c13,528$7,823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,822.569359.1%55 W · 38 L-6.8wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-12.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Rams46c13,517$6,262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,262.1111544.3%51 W · 64 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-7.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Rams47c12,858$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,00012744.9%57 W · 70 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Rams78c12,747$9,914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,913.7531543.2%136 W · 179 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4ca…f4c7backed Seahawks44c12,706$5,591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,115.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4cc3…7552backed Rams45c12,500$5,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,65025137.5%94 W · 157 L-18.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-22.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc07f…2c09backed Seahawks55c12,266$6,746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,519.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Rams64c11,845$7,618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,617.8360049.3%296 W · 304 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd51b…9606backed Rams47c10,638$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0006738.8%26 W · 41 L-7.8wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-26.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x226b…cad6backed Seahawks49c10,615$5,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,439.7223937.7%90 W · 149 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Seahawks49c10,239$5,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,221.695453.7%29 W · 25 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x27cb…169ebacked Rams46c10,100$4,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,645.55431.5%17 W · 37 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefc9…b337backed Seahawks49c10,000$4,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,1009754.6%53 W · 44 L+9.1wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Seahawks39c9,974$3,939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,034.3523244.4%103 W · 129 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x309f…9282backed Rams56c9,568$5,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,380.197557.3%43 W · 32 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3859…3070backed Rams41c9,500$3,895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,8953351.5%17 W · 16 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb525…bdc7backed Rams46c9,436$4,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,349.843953.8%21 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed Seahawks50c9,409$4,705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,704.6216860.7%102 W · 66 L+18.7wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+21.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7f5a…9ecdbacked Seahawks19c9,231$1,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,4915038%19 W · 31 L+4.0wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+7.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa07d…9871backed Rams64c8,938$5,694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,693.768650%43 W · 43 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5077…4e7cbacked Seahawks46c8,632$3,978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,653.642740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Seahawks52c8,155$4,239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,915.8131854.7%174 W · 144 L+16.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa976…6471backed Rams50c8,068$4,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,059.11825%2 W · 6 L-2.7wins-0.34per pick59cpaid-56.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Rams47c8,002$3,761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,760.921254.2%115 W · 97 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0dce…6caabacked Rams76c7,899$5,993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,993.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa840…f2e7backed Rams47c7,872$3,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,700250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Seahawks38c7,831$3,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,829.810648.1%51 W · 55 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2ff…1a3abacked Seahawks53c7,632$4,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,587.113100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+108.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3ae9…74acbacked Seahawks13c7,600$951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,649.22828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4534…f867backed Rams33c7,500$2,475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4752941.4%12 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0b1…faebbacked Seahawks18c7,377$1,341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,036.67737.7%29 W · 48 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba69…8e9dbacked Seahawks54c7,370$3,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,390.2650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd53e…e70cbacked Seahawks51c7,081$3,619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,462.376647%31 W · 35 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a55…394ebacked Seahawks53c7,000$3,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,2906639.4%26 W · 40 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-27.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xee14…8055backed Seahawks50c6,919$3,459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,460.556250%31 W · 31 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Seahawks53c6,740$3,539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,201.1320661.2%126 W · 80 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcc3f…5c6fbacked Seahawks48c6,680$3,206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,473.452245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.