TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$122,480
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$124,096

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $122,480 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 247 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf0ed…47d8backed No30c14,094$4,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,224.756434.4%22 W · 42 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+100.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x48af…89ccbacked Yes43c13,556$5,795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,760.288038.8%31 W · 49 L+5.5wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-5.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c59…1766backed No28c8,904$2,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,478.66453.1%34 W · 30 L+12.9wins+0.20per pick33cpaid+95.4%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xedc0…99f3backed No35c4,232$1,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,490.2311836.4%43 W · 75 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+42.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed No29c3,047$892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$891.9510426.9%28 W · 76 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick22cpaid-25.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b01…8f47backed Yes58c3,044$1,758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,286.171827.8%5 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-50.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d88…b0c4backed No32c2,711$862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$861.713132.3%10 W · 21 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+34.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e53…58e1backed Yes74c2,604$1,927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$677.72450%12 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2dad…5758backed Yes69c2,417$1,668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$749.01728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-25.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5eec…f651backed No39c2,244$883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$883.24450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No43c2,176$927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$927.459850%49 W · 49 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x991a…d81abacked Yes71c1,838$1,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527.96250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-29.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6513…8c10backed Yes56c1,750$974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$775.8410034%34 W · 66 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+23%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x61c2…7f16backed Yes71c1,289$909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc45…6805backed No76c1,265$966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$965.84226.2%11 W · 31 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-22.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2664…6fb2backed Yes52c1,263$661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602.84425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-52.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed No44c1,231$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.427540%30 W · 45 L+5.6wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+14.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed No23c1,231$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.94476.4%3 W · 44 L-4.8wins-0.10per pick17cpaid-83.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd86e…ee3ebacked No31c1,098$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.463740.5%15 W · 22 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5f…6430backed Yes73c956.82$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.82944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb9d…e31bbacked No44c914.48$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.192254.5%12 W · 10 L+4.3wins+0.20per pick35cpaid+65.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfd42…8895backed Yes13c892.67$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$776.621926.3%5 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick18cpaid+64.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6bd…0b58backed No78c892.05$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$697.08944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-35.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x641b…5433backed No16c801.15$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.2966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+41.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc426…2700backed Yes62c672.12$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.772030%6 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick32cpaid+30.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x019a…7df0backed Yes55c671.31$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.42887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick62cpaid+63.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaa99…dbbfbacked No47c646.43$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.836354%34 W · 29 L+11.0wins+0.17per pick37cpaid+59.6%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x1e9c…0e0fbacked Yes40c629.01$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.01333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x805a…0635backed No15c604.89$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.396150.8%31 W · 30 L+16.6wins+0.27per pick24cpaid+158.1%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick
0x5d62…e937backed Yes70c599.46$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeea0…b30abacked Yes70c579.96$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.75250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-28.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No33c569.86$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.511,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No11c564.45$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.095510.9%6 W · 49 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-33.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaebd…c462backed No30c540.9$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.87128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-86.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7185…4896backed Yes68c529.99$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3d…f572backed Yes68c517.58$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.74771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.24per pick48cpaid+106.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2760…ef06backed Yes78c513.79$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x687d…e28bbacked No46c505.22$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2322737%10 W · 17 L-5.2wins-0.19per pick56cpaid-41.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x533d…ceeebacked No11c500$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick9cpaid+108.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9b6…9b6abacked No28c500$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1402733.3%9 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa163…de8dbacked Yes70c500$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick46cpaid-71.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x07b9…4092backed Yes69c489.51$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0372…4914backed Yes66c481.02$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.8633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-50.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22f0…ae31backed Yes63c463$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.551520%3 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-6.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x02ea…a39cbacked Yes71c448.4$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.37475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfd1…928abacked Yes67c448.06$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.06450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-20.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe29e…0507backed Yes69c434.78$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.78366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Yes38c434.18$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.774540%18 W · 27 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+55.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No29c404.89$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.2540712.3%50 W · 357 L-35.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-48.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb2c3…eed9backed Yes62c400$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4451…fcbebacked Yes67c400$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.622450%12 W · 12 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+32.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8ac3…eda2backed No36c400$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144825%2 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-53.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfe3…d566backed Yes73c379.65$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.35333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick65cpaid-54%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f81…e93fbacked No76c356.48$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2711258.3%7 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick75cpaid-21.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3636…ab7cbacked Yes65c355$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.25633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick49cpaid+9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf42f…a6a7backed No32c343.79$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.724850%24 W · 24 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xac4c…5c69backed Yes62c342.49$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.74250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ff1…c85ebacked No33c338.95$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.250%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes76c334.35$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.91942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0af4…89b4backed No40c331.57$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.14650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7db0…8c18backed Yes62c327.46$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.08683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.19per pick64cpaid+40%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed No34c318$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.158837.5%33 W · 55 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-24.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb06c…6961backed Yes64c313.88$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.88560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66f1…2dd9backed Yes58c311.82$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.65728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed No16c300$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483740.5%15 W · 22 L+4.1wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+19.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked No67c274.34$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.629041.1%37 W · 53 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-16.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ea…1ad5backed Yes75c266.67$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.67560%3 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick75cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked No5c257.62$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4419011.6%22 W · 168 L-0.4wins0.00per pick12cpaid-58.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbfd…0029backed No79c240.12$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.920%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1e3…4f06backed Yes60c232.2$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.45933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.29per pick63cpaid-51.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No31c229.98$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.0889317.1%153 W · 740 L-144.9wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-61.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xd4cf…2d96backed No35c226.33$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.07333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-36.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f54…fbb1backed Yes68c222.22$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.22475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+18.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94d8…37e6backed No29c212.58$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.753438.2%13 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-33.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x564f…7026backed Yes70c208.91$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.9136945.3%167 W · 202 L+29.3wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+22.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcca5…296abacked No50c204.48$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.241060%6 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d5b…afe2backed No30c200$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick29cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c61…ac8bbacked Yes61c200$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+49.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a75…5271backed Yes65c200$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-43.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf73…0436backed No35c200$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x514d…4200backed No56c198$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.79333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-46.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No17c184.75$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0819432%62 W · 132 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-40.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dbc…18a0backed Yes71c183.4$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.4580%4 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick73cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6674…c516backed Yes68c182.71$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.1366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked No22c180$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.917132.4%23 W · 48 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+49.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa403…cceebacked Yes65c179.97$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+52.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf03…9175backed No74c178.06$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.44250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfea1…ed30backed No60c170$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c85…635cbacked Yes78c163.42$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b6c…0b04backed Yes74c162.86$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea69…00d7backed Yes62c160.5$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+60.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd8b…5945backed No35c158.83$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-20%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c10…df5cbacked Yes66c155$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.11553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-26.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14ca…e072backed Yes63c149.99$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.9250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-21.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe613…540ebacked Yes23c148.78$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.561612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick13cpaid-61.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b9b…f44bbacked Yes34c145.57$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+192.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No28c145.37$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8314355.2%79 W · 64 L+16.6wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+24.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x06fc…4fb6backed Yes71c142.91$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.052825%7 W · 21 L-3.3wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-57.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x40a3…26ddbacked Yes70c142.86$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbaa1…f742backed Yes66c141.63$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.532147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.