AI · resolved market
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72af22eec73c47d8745098701d409590863df6595f95bd3602d4b30b9e3ea7c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $122,480
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $124,096
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $122,480 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 247 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 30c | 14,094$4,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,224.75 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…89ccbacked Yes | 43c | 13,556$5,795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,760.28 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed No | 28c | 8,904$2,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,478.6 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +12.9wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed No | 35c | 4,232$1,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,490.23 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 29c | 3,047$892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$891.95 | 104 | 26.9%28 W · 76 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b01…8f47backed Yes | 58c | 3,044$1,758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,286.17 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d88…b0c4backed No | 32c | 2,711$862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861.71 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…58e1backed Yes | 74c | 2,604$1,927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.7 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…5758backed Yes | 69c | 2,417$1,668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.01 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eec…f651backed No | 39c | 2,244$883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$883.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 43c | 2,176$927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$927.45 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x991a…d81abacked Yes | 71c | 1,838$1,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6513…8c10backed Yes | 56c | 1,750$974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775.84 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61c2…7f16backed Yes | 71c | 1,289$909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc45…6805backed No | 76c | 1,265$966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$965.8 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2664…6fb2backed Yes | 52c | 1,263$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 44c | 1,231$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.42 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 23c | 1,231$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.94 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd86e…ee3ebacked No | 31c | 1,098$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.46 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5f…6430backed Yes | 73c | 956.82$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.82 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…e31bbacked No | 44c | 914.48$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.19 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 35cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed Yes | 13c | 892.67$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$776.62 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…0b58backed No | 78c | 892.05$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.08 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x641b…5433backed No | 16c | 801.15$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.2 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…2700backed Yes | 62c | 672.12$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.77 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019a…7df0backed Yes | 55c | 671.31$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.42 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 62cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked No | 47c | 646.43$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.83 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…0e0fbacked Yes | 40c | 629.01$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 15c | 604.89$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.39 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +16.6wins | +0.27per pick | 24cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x5d62…e937backed Yes | 70c | 599.46$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeea0…b30abacked Yes | 70c | 579.96$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 33c | 569.86$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.51 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 11c | 564.45$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.09 | 55 | 10.9%6 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…c462backed No | 30c | 540.9$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.87 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -86.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7185…4896backed Yes | 68c | 529.99$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3d…f572backed Yes | 68c | 517.58$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.74 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +106.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2760…ef06backed Yes | 78c | 513.79$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x687d…e28bbacked No | 46c | 505.22$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked No | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…9b6abacked No | 28c | 500$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…de8dbacked Yes | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07b9…4092backed Yes | 69c | 489.51$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0372…4914backed Yes | 66c | 481.02$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22f0…ae31backed Yes | 63c | 463$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.55 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…a39cbacked Yes | 71c | 448.4$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.37 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd1…928abacked Yes | 67c | 448.06$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe29e…0507backed Yes | 69c | 434.78$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Yes | 38c | 434.18$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.77 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 29c | 404.89$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.25 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c3…eed9backed Yes | 62c | 400$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4451…fcbebacked Yes | 67c | 400$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.62 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac3…eda2backed No | 36c | 400$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe3…d566backed Yes | 73c | 379.65$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -54%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f81…e93fbacked No | 76c | 356.48$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 75cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…ab7cbacked Yes | 65c | 355$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed No | 32c | 343.79$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.72 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac4c…5c69backed Yes | 62c | 342.49$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff1…c85ebacked No | 33c | 338.95$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 76c | 334.35$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.9 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0af4…89b4backed No | 40c | 331.57$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7db0…8c18backed Yes | 62c | 327.46$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.08 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +40%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 34c | 318$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.15 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06c…6961backed Yes | 64c | 313.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66f1…2dd9backed Yes | 58c | 311.82$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.65 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed No | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked No | 67c | 274.34$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.62 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ea…1ad5backed Yes | 75c | 266.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 75cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 5c | 257.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfd…0029backed No | 79c | 240.12$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…4f06backed Yes | 60c | 232.2$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.45 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 31c | 229.98$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.08 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cf…2d96backed No | 35c | 226.33$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f54…fbb1backed Yes | 68c | 222.22$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…37e6backed No | 29c | 212.58$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.75 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 70c | 208.91$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.91 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcca5…296abacked No | 50c | 204.48$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.24 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5b…afe2backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c61…ac8bbacked Yes | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a75…5271backed Yes | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf73…0436backed No | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x514d…4200backed No | 56c | 198$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 17c | 184.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…18a0backed Yes | 71c | 183.4$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6674…c516backed Yes | 68c | 182.71$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked No | 22c | 180$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.91 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa403…cceebacked Yes | 65c | 179.97$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf03…9175backed No | 74c | 178.06$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea1…ed30backed No | 60c | 170$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c85…635cbacked Yes | 78c | 163.42$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6c…0b04backed Yes | 74c | 162.86$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea69…00d7backed Yes | 62c | 160.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8b…5945backed No | 35c | 158.83$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c10…df5cbacked Yes | 66c | 155$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.1 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ca…e072backed Yes | 63c | 149.99$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe613…540ebacked Yes | 23c | 148.78$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.56 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9b…f44bbacked Yes | 34c | 145.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +192.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 28c | 145.37$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.83 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +16.6wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed Yes | 71c | 142.91$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.05 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40a3…26ddbacked Yes | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa1…f742backed Yes | 66c | 141.63$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.53 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 26?this page
- Will CapCut: Photo & Video Editor be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 26?No won
- Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 26?No won
- Will Google be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 26?No won
- Will Threads be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.