AI · resolved market
Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b84255340f4432dfd066bca0ec4cb8e614a35cee3b17a972f559a71cb39c53f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,368
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,987
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,368 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0372…4914backed Yes | 23c | 1,224$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2664…6fb2backed Yes | 8c | 1,158$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a7…6569backed Yes | 15c | 958$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.7 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c09…28d0backed Yes | 14c | 943$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.02 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 48cpaid | -74%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x641b…5433backed No | 75c | 730$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac4c…5c69backed Yes | 18c | 628.28$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab0…9663backed Yes | 26c | 387.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…c462backed Yes | 5c | 227.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -86.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 6c | 199.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -63%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x403d…2eb1backed No | 80c | 190$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4c…be9fbacked Yes | 14c | 173$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88fa…2cf4backed Yes | 14c | 147$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.26per pick | 45cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8b…5945backed Yes | 22c | 128.31$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6939…9c88backed Yes | 14c | 113.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x012d…9db6backed Yes | 18c | 109.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 103.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x399a…1482backed Yes | 19c | 101.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88b1…83d7backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 26?this page
- Will CapCut: Photo & Video Editor be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 26?No won
- Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 26?Yes won
- Will Google be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 26?No won
- Will Threads be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.