Chess · resolved market
Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5da6b37713549a2d943ea575b5ba81388eecef636609e3117d5b3f5c03514ebf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,642
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,657
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,642 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xffd4…0f95backed Yes | 19c | 5,000$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$949.54 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -68%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62b2…71e3backed Yes | 31c | 3,537$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 20c | 3,500$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 23c | 3,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.17 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a8…730bbacked Yes | 31c | 1,933$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 25c | 1,500$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.5 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e62…ef0fbacked Yes | 25c | 1,497$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1e…ce59backed Yes | 26c | 1,492$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.35 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 17cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce08…510bbacked Yes | 23c | 1,310$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf3…1bb5backed Yes | 21c | 1,188$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.87 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Yes | 18c | 1,000$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.01 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8879…b58fbacked Yes | 31c | 965.56$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a0…5cc4backed No | 76c | 759.73$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3a…7978backed Yes | 23c | 693.3$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…7802backed Yes | 2c | 684.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x092c…3175backed Yes | 31c | 640.96$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e27…6afebacked Yes | 10c | 531.14$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88a4…8793backed Yes | 21c | 490.03$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa051…54ebbacked Yes | 13c | 489.31$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 18c | 456.08$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | -12.3wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…f06fbacked No | 76c | 400.84$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked Yes | 5c | 390.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45c5…558dbacked Yes | 33c | 367.62$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe952…f07abacked Yes | 20c | 266.76$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa11b…f663backed No | 73c | 264.04$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515a…4d0dbacked Yes | 17c | 263.47$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…bb4abacked Yes | 20c | 257.6$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.76 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…bf77backed Yes | 25c | 201.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c50…73b8backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9a…cf52backed Yes | 23c | 196.51$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbc…d46fbacked Yes | 21c | 185.34$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f36…4cd9backed Yes | 7c | 169.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad1…d674backed Yes | 17c | 161.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…dba8backed Yes | 25c | 154.64$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf728…1632backed Yes | 19c | 120.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffc1…2d42backed Yes | 16c | 119.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6365…df4ebacked Yes | 24c | 118.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaddd…0b57backed Yes | 23c | 110.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 77c | 106.59$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.37 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3d…81a1backed Yes | 22c | 105$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 12c | 103.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7792…3129backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b3…6193backed Yes | 16c | 99.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3d…f572backed Yes | 19c | 80.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…25c0backed Yes | 17c | 77.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2b…2030backed Yes | 17c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab53…c351backed Yes | 27c | 47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8acd…d4abbacked Yes | 31c | 42.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa408…d831backed No | 78c | 14.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship?this page
- Will Alexander Grischuk win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship?No won
- Will Andrey Esipenko win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship?No won
- Will Anish Giri win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship?No won
- Will Baadur Jobava win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship?No won
- Will Daniil Dubov win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship?No won
- Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship?No won
- Will Hans Moke Niemann win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship?No won
- Will Ian Nepomniachtchi win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship?No won
- Will Jan-Krzysztof Duda win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship?No won
- Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship?No won
- Will Jorden Van Foreest win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship?No won
- Will Jose Eduardo Martinez Alcantara win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship?No won
- Will Leinier Dominguez Perez win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship?No won
- Will Levon Aronian win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship?No won
- Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship?Yes won
- Will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship?No won
- Will Nihal Sarin win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship?No won
- Will Nodirbek Abdusattorov win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship?No won
- Will Olexandr Bortnyk win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship?No won
- Will Parham Maghsoodloo win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship?No won
- Will Praggnanandhaa R win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship?No won
- Will Shakhriyar Mamedyarov win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship?No won
- Will Vladislav Artemiev win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship?No won
- Will Wesley So win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship?No won
- Will Yangyi Yu win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.