Chess · resolved market

Will Ian Nepomniachtchi win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45495add20d84665c03c6b59838f73cf46a56f2a531ac1cd48b1ae8b71744034

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 30, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $28,370
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $25,343

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,370 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Chess
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x67a7…86cebacked Yes	3c	9,892$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$254.76	35	11.4%4 W · 31 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-76.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc468…009dbacked Yes	1c	1,416$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.26	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	+1.7wins	+0.07per pick	13cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d1e…ce59backed Yes	2c	1,227$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.32	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.8wins	+0.12per pick	17cpaid	-5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Yes	6c	960$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.1	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.06per pick	34cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x503d…cd16backed Yes	7c	857.14$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.13per pick	21cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8c…bb4abacked Yes	3c	713.6$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.82	20	25%5 W · 15 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	-27%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	692$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.99	175	7.4%13 W · 162 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-42.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes	7c	285.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	76	7.9%6 W · 70 L	-12.3wins	-0.16per pick	24cpaid	-66.8%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0xede5…7802backed Yes	5c	221.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.1	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe9a…cf52backed Yes	7c	185.71$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.7wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe096…9779backed Yes	17c	146.58$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.14per pick	48cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Ian Nepomniachtchi win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event