TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Chess · resolved market

Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$277,453
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$264,865

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $277,453 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 213 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Chess
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x62cf…5826backed Yes64c51,066$32,507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,558.411844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-27.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4167…2427backed No48c36,768$17,594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,594.2714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-63.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7098…b948backed No44c20,245$8,848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,847.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ced…12b2backed Yes52c18,024$9,372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,651.851136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-31.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90d9…a16cbacked Yes49c10,115$4,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,125.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+102.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7aa5…6292backed No52c9,887$5,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,148.392313%3 W · 20 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-66.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb52c…450cbacked Yes24c7,911$1,889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,022.241361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.15per pick47cpaid+20.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes14c7,562$1,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,500.193330.3%10 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffd4…0f95backed Yes58c5,667$3,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,399.331118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-68%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed Yes21c5,000$1,049 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,951.313435.3%12 W · 22 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68c5…79aebacked Yes53c4,477$2,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,114.16333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick19cpaid-36.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Yes36c3,886$1,411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,475.341216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-59.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67a7…86cebacked No53c2,859$1,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,519.753511.4%4 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-76.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8879…b58fbacked Yes62c2,722$1,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,021.61366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d1e…ce59backed Yes26c2,522$665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,857.49728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick17cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes52c2,500$1,296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,203.68520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-61.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3db7…8f9fbacked No47c2,036$954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$953.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed No17c2,000$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3403531.4%11 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-27.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xca14…11bebacked Yes43c1,945$829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,116.691540%6 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+117.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa003…ebefbacked No62c1,939$1,211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,210.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6277…d68abacked Yes50c1,857$927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$930.481338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-28.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x97ae…82bdbacked No45c1,746$791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$790.64147.1%1 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick22cpaid-86.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7422…e383backed Yes64c1,719$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$618.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf9f…f6a3backed Yes55c1,509$828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$680.16850%4 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-15.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc192…086cbacked Yes27c1,500$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0952100%2 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+285.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe8c5…7a13backed Yes34c1,352$464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$888.441533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2aa1…dba8backed Yes52c1,349$705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$644.482213.6%3 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-75.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x187b…8848backed Yes39c1,268$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$773.3540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa051…54ebbacked No40c1,232$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.7730%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0be6…4ff5backed Yes50c1,202$604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$598.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+99%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7e4…f06fbacked Yes75c1,133$847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.55540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45c5…558dbacked Yes44c1,119$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$627.72650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x171e…6141backed Yes40c1,117$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$665.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+147.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb24…ac2cbacked No61c962.6$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.371040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-17.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No67c921.77$618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$617.78540%2 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick63cpaid-40.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe99a…e9fbbacked Yes60c907.24$543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0eeb…a809backed Yes22c879.77$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+345%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e8c…bb4abacked Yes55c874.96$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.032025%5 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-27%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes42c820$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.91050%5 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Yes52c800$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-35.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4ae…93ecbacked Yes41c746.51$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.41540%6 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8420…6183backed Yes78c698.14$544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.38933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36bf…2864backed No49c692.78$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.1211631%36 W · 80 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x503d…cd16backed Yes49c614.77$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.77333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick21cpaid-31.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x98a3…d61ebacked Yes41c594.32$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x89b5…6ff8backed Yes51c562.75$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.75366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+15.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b00…d78bbacked Yes11c557.59$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.26250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick10cpaid+354.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a2b…2030backed No43c554.24$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.933138.7%12 W · 19 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+26.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2744…1e7fbacked Yes18c550$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e27…6afebacked Yes58c515.12$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.28250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-14.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5285…7c5cbacked Yes57c483.67$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.35250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes39c474.1$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.31580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+36.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c50…73b8backed No31c464.92$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.85616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-74.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7602…2775backed No46c443.51$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.4120%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes31c439.99$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.847441.9%31 W · 43 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No55c438.19$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.79333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-19.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed No52c412.1$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.42767.9%6 W · 70 L-12.3wins-0.16per pick24cpaid-66.8%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x3673…7c89backed Yes49c405.93$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.932917.2%5 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-42.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ad1…06b7backed Yes43c400$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2282100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick59cpaid+83.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e80…f17abacked No13c400$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x432e…cc4fbacked Yes47c398.52$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.36366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+47.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3d…f572backed Yes46c376.49$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.39520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-56.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf728…1632backed Yes55c371.66$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.5633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-33.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7057…a052backed No58c369.81$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.18333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-37.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No46c367.56$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.581250%6 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19e1…bf77backed Yes41c363.76$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.76333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe9a…cf52backed No59c355.48$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21070%0 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x43b3…6193backed Yes69c350$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.25520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-70.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a91…88e1backed Yes54c348.07$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17b9…cad6backed Yes53c347.87$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.6333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-37.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa10d…da39backed Yes53c333.34$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.022100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+111.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xded3…b470backed Yes58c323.93$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+73.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes42c316.63$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.59560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+16.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb04…8b8abacked No50c314$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1573010%3 W · 27 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+264.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34dc…3cdcbacked Yes51c303.41$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.67475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+31.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9738backed Yes44c300$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1681136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-28.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ff8…aa3abacked Yes18c300$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.45250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+175%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf13…b91abacked Yes76c300$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+30.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x421d…320abacked Yes53c296.59$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.17560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b40…d85ebacked Yes62c294.65$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.82250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-19.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1a0…c18cbacked Yes44c285.27$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.776555.4%36 W · 29 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes10c281.96$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.0412313%16 W · 107 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-24%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc468…009dbacked Yes49c240$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.42619.2%5 W · 21 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-22.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bcb…b05abacked No62c239.59$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.2150%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7f20…086abacked No48c238.07$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.1633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c88…0efcbacked Yes41c236.81$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+144.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbdc…c16abacked Yes38c221$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+160.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x08b7…2ae4backed Yes51c212.51$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+94.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0dbc…d46fbacked Yes39c209.21$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.62366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+34.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab53…c351backed Yes48c207.78$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.46540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e9a…a9a8backed No24c204.99$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d5c…aad0backed Yes49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.082100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+115.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb74d…9b2abacked No15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6149…8a58backed Yes70c200$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604553.3%24 W · 21 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+28.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed No53c200$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8857…f34ebacked No15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa402…c824backed Yes61c200$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$792100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+98.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1985…8cbdbacked Yes43c199.23$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.232100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+86.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Yes52c195.47$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.07475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick38cpaid+83.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x793c…e8dabacked No54c195.11$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.33250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+22%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.