Chess · resolved market

Will Daniil Dubov win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a5cf36672276cb7e55d27e2b65841bcd1650b3bab2528298ee5ee15689ed07a

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 30, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $27,577
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $12,999

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,577 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Chess
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes	11c	5,490$623 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$623.37	33	30.3%10 W · 23 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes	4c	1,622$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.88	123	13%16 W · 107 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-24%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x831b…eed5backed Yes	7c	1,536$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	1,324$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.43	175	7.4%13 W · 162 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-42.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x67a7…86cebacked Yes	4c	1,180$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.02	35	11.4%4 W · 31 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-76.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Yes	4c	1,000$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.83	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.06per pick	34cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x880c…440abacked Yes	2c	854.85$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.69	115	39.1%45 W · 70 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a2b…2030backed Yes	4c	850$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.05	31	38.7%12 W · 19 L	+1.3wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e8c…bb4abacked Yes	5c	775.36$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.59	20	25%5 W · 15 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	-27%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc307…bf36backed Yes	12c	622$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.77	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.10per pick	24cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd45…59b2backed Yes	3c	512.43$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.53	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.5wins	+0.07per pick	7cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes	3c	508.18$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.72	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.4wins	+0.29per pick	51cpaid	+36.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3673…7c89backed Yes	13c	452.76$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	29	17.2%5 W · 24 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xede5…7802backed Yes	4c	443.99$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.76	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	5c	327.36$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.24	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.9wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf728…1632backed Yes	23c	165.04$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.96	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.06per pick	28cpaid	-33.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d1e…ce59backed Yes	7c	140.93$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.46	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.8wins	+0.12per pick	17cpaid	-5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5779…168dbacked Yes	13c	85.68$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.88	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.13per pick	30cpaid	+28.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Daniil Dubov win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event