TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Chess · resolved market

Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$33,539
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,281

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,539 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Chess
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x67a7…86cebacked Yes3c6,085$181 inLost-$181.233511.4%4 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-76.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xffd4…0f95backed Yes11c5,000$550 inLost-$5501118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-68%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e8c…bb4abacked Yes10c1,250$129 inLost-$129.472025%5 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-27%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes3c1,111$33 inLost-$32.7112313%16 W · 107 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-24%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdf3…1bb5backed Yes10c999.99$96 inLost-$96825%2 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c968.7$36 inLost-$35.81757.4%13 W · 162 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-42.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x880c…440abacked Yes3c840$24 inLost-$24.111539.1%45 W · 70 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d1e…ce59backed Yes15c838.29$125 inLost-$125.08728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick17cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa7f4…88e6backed Yes5c581.5$29 inLost-$29.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc468…009dbacked Yes3c546.97$16 inLost-$15.572619.2%5 W · 21 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-22.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb24…ac2cbacked Yes2c465.5$11 inLost-$11.171040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-17.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes4c374.37$14 inLost-$14.0790%0 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xffc1…2d42backed Yes11c304.52$33 inLost-$33714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-26.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa051…54ebbacked Yes12c262.19$32 inLost-$32.2530%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd45…59b2backed Yes4c238.08$10 inLost-$10.44714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick7cpaid-58.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d12…bdf6backed Yes16c200$31 inLost-$31.240%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf728…1632backed Yes12c157.49$19 inLost-$18.82633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-33.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa3d…81a1backed Yes8c155.49$13 inLost-$13.1520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe952…f07abacked Yes13c140.65$18 inLost-$18333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-39.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No80c138.85$110 inWon+$28.45450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-35.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c50…73b8backed Yes20c110$22 inLost-$22.1616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-74.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17b9…cad6backed Yes18c104.6$19 inLost-$19.01333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-37.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3d…f572backed Yes18c80.49$14 inLost-$14.49520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-56.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa11b…f663backed No78c68.36$53 inWon+$15.17475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick65cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.