Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06042a235a666ca1d6f7ce822fe36c93f78a60892188db12039cfa4b534e94f8

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 23, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $789,788
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $459,842

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $789,788 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 295 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	9c	37,474$3,357 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,356.96	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	6c	20,251$1,236 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,236.22	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	1c	17,895$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202.28	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	10c	14,365$1,450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,450.36	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	6c	13,831$808 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$807.69	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes	2c	12,025$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218	146	8.2%12 W · 134 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	7c	11,320$786 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$786.44	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	9c	10,459$972 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$972.16	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	11c	10,179$1,169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,168.86	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3924…e49bbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	12c	8,906$1,077 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,077.42	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	11c	7,980$879 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$878.88	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	2c	6,180$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.16	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	4c	6,033$267 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$266.63	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	2c	6,010$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.99	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5300…d039backed Yes	6c	5,657$334 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$334.28	64	12.5%8 W · 56 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	7cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes	10c	5,518$560 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$559.71	64	17.2%11 W · 53 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	6c	5,442$337 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$337.18	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	0c	5,374$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x999e…d166backed Yes	4c	5,250$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195	24	4.2%1 W · 23 L	-1.5wins	-0.06per pick	10cpaid	-81.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	6c	5,032$294 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$293.62	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	8c	4,986$413 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$413.29	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	1c	4,620$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.19	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	11c	4,530$513 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$512.7	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	20c	4,201$828 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$827.58	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe23d…3c72backed Yes	4c	4,122$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.55	202	26.7%54 W · 148 L	+8.0wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x620e…621bbacked Yes	0c	4,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1da3…24d6backed Yes	13c	3,998$508 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$508.28	76	13.2%10 W · 66 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	14c	3,666$523 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$523.35	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	14c	3,296$469 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$468.94	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	2c	3,246$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.86	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8dce…b2acbacked Yes	2c	3,101$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.3	164	17.1%28 W · 136 L	+6.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x38b3…1e06backed Yes	10c	3,000$302 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$301.83	212	15.1%32 W · 180 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	8c	2,788$223 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222.68	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	4c	2,737$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.41	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc39e…1344backed Yes	1c	2,642$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-54%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	1c	2,600$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.1	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7257…fc40backed Yes	4c	2,397$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.89	47	8.5%4 W · 43 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98ce…5e1dbacked Yes	12c	2,327$289 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$289.5	89	9%8 W · 81 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x19b3…88edbacked Yes	16c	2,323$381 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$381.05	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6beb…6ea2backed Yes	6c	2,317$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.01	16	25%4 W · 12 L	+1.2wins	+0.08per pick	17cpaid	-3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	16c	2,313$361 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$361.04	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	5c	2,000$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.74	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f59…3a50backed Yes	5c	2,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	42	4.8%2 W · 40 L	-3.7wins	-0.09per pick	14cpaid	-58.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	6c	1,943$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.49	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	7c	1,867$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.93	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3103…ea70backed Yes	3c	1,862$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.24	139	26.6%37 W · 102 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes	1c	1,800$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.4	218	18.3%40 W · 178 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8a0…f967backed Yes	3c	1,725$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.97	29	6.9%2 W · 27 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes	14c	1,626$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219.64	86	16.3%14 W · 72 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Yes	2c	1,619$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.39	122	4.9%6 W · 116 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+213.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7f4…88e6backed Yes	5c	1,521$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.95	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+1.3wins	+0.16per pick	9cpaid	+76.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	6c	1,507$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.26	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	1c	1,500$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.75	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	4c	1,500$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0744…b4cbbacked Yes	25c	1,490$371 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$371.01	73	13.7%10 W · 63 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-22%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fed…d914backed Yes	4c	1,440$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.66	57	15.8%9 W · 48 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-54.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	5c	1,426$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.41	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	17c	1,426$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240.06	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	4c	1,400$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.84	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	14c	1,400$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xceb3…108ebacked Yes	18c	1,394$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250.24	15	20%3 W · 12 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	+46.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d6e…255abacked Yes	17c	1,388$233 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$233.21	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	21cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	8c	1,353$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.83	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x775e…bac9backed Yes	7c	1,300$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91	48	12.5%6 W · 42 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-40%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc13d…4bdabacked Yes	18c	1,261$233 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$232.86	42	23.8%10 W · 32 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	6c	1,218$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.02	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e4b…71f0backed Yes	17c	1,205$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	93	10.8%10 W · 83 L	-3.9wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x07bd…241bbacked Yes	18c	1,203$222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222	69	10.1%7 W · 62 L	-3.9wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdffa…1ea3backed Yes	18c	1,201$213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213.3	61	8.2%5 W · 56 L	-4.0wins	-0.07per pick	15cpaid	-30%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb2af…c94bbacked Yes	19c	1,200$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$232	54	9.3%5 W · 49 L	-3.1wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x05dd…305cbacked Yes	7c	1,194$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.38	96	16.7%16 W · 80 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedff…c4adbacked Yes	4c	1,150$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-1.2wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad90…9a54backed Yes	16c	1,100$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.4	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	39cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	10c	1,059$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.72	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	2c	1,038$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes	17c	1,027$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.9	32	18.8%6 W · 26 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	13c	1,013$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.39	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc426…2700backed Yes	4c	1,000$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	67	6%4 W · 63 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	3c	1,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x148e…bb48backed Yes	11c	1,000$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	38	10.5%4 W · 34 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33d4…c167backed Yes	16c	1,000$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161	177	23.2%41 W · 136 L	+7.2wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe717…d380backed Yes	2c	1,000$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe864…ce58backed Yes	4c	1,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	107	27.1%29 W · 78 L	-4.5wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-49.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe26b…bee7backed Yes	5c	1,000$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	37	16.2%6 W · 31 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x481c…51f5backed Yes	7c	999.94$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.68	25	8%2 W · 23 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-49.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f31…8cf3backed Yes	8c	936.52$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.21	65	18.5%12 W · 53 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd280…e66cbacked Yes	14c	932.32$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.07	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x69bc…577dbacked Yes	9c	918.02$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	+0.7wins	+0.05per pick	27cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc614…b14bbacked Yes	10c	900$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.83	347	14.7%51 W · 296 L	+13.8wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes	4c	900$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.5	186	3.8%7 W · 179 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes	6c	900$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.8	91	4.4%4 W · 87 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-30%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes	2c	900$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	207	4.3%9 W · 198 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x098c…e4e1backed Yes	10c	899.99$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87	98	16.3%16 W · 82 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cca…c831backed Yes	12c	896.69$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	+8.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes	13c	891.09$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8458…17eabacked Yes	10c	888.03$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf667…2abcbacked Yes	8c	868.26$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.29	126	19%24 W · 102 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b64…ebdebacked Yes	19c	839.36$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.05	78	25.6%20 W · 58 L	+3.5wins	+0.05per pick	21cpaid	+24.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event