Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x107f8fc4c49f98693ae2c00b8cc92ade62f1ead940ab47a521537f3f2aba0206

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 23, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $659,245
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $401,059

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $659,245 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 166 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	4c	36,993$1,318 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,317.98	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	4c	29,501$1,177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,176.82	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	3c	16,256$527 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$527.49	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	9c	12,194$1,042 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,041.74	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4143…d67dbacked Yes	0c	10,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	212	20.3%43 W · 169 L	+13.4wins	+0.06per pick	14cpaid	+610.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	6c	9,683$592 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$591.79	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	8c	9,279$759 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$759.28	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes	6c	7,849$489 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$489.46	64	17.2%11 W · 53 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	7,163$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.31	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	4c	6,902$289 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$288.87	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	6,405$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216.77	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes	4c	5,292$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.9	146	8.2%12 W · 134 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf975…bd15backed Yes	10c	5,093$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	29	34.5%10 W · 19 L	+3.5wins	+0.12per pick	23cpaid	+56.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4efe…52bebacked Yes	14c	5,048$716 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$715.72	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.08per pick	32cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	0c	4,620$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.87	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	2c	4,288$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.29	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	4,270$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.89	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5300…d039backed Yes	6c	4,060$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$224.84	64	12.5%8 W · 56 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	7cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	3c	4,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.94	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	1c	3,876$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.74	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	2c	3,847$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.71	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Yes	1c	3,794$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.35	122	4.9%6 W · 116 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+213.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8a0…f967backed Yes	3c	3,754$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.24	29	6.9%2 W · 27 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	4c	3,717$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.42	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1da3…24d6backed Yes	7c	3,388$253 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$252.67	76	13.2%10 W · 66 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	2c	2,972$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes	1c	2,908$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.17	218	18.3%40 W · 178 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes	3c	2,855$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.54	625	39.5%247 W · 378 L	+48.1wins	+0.08per pick	32cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x98ce…5e1dbacked Yes	8c	2,819$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$217.05	89	9%8 W · 81 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	6c	2,699$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.72	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	3c	2,471$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.04	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	4c	2,380$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.34	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	4c	2,365$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.07	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc727…2b13backed Yes	3c	2,286$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-75.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	10c	2,102$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.3	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	3c	2,013$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.28	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	5c	2,001$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.81	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	10c	1,923$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.86	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	9c	1,909$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.27	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1a97…f9dfbacked Yes	3c	1,834$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.49	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	4c	1,779$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.99	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x775e…bac9backed Yes	6c	1,700$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	48	12.5%6 W · 42 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-40%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7257…fc40backed Yes	3c	1,692$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.86	47	8.5%4 W · 43 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	2c	1,650$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.6	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0744…b4cbbacked Yes	13c	1,580$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202.24	73	13.7%10 W · 63 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-22%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3103…ea70backed Yes	1c	1,570$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.72	139	26.6%37 W · 102 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88cb…2c20backed Yes	1c	1,527$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.51	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+70.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf667…2abcbacked Yes	5c	1,517$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.85	126	19%24 W · 102 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc614…b14bbacked Yes	3c	1,500$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.59	347	14.7%51 W · 296 L	+13.8wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	5c	1,493$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.73	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	4c	1,400$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	5c	1,378$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.1	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	5c	1,340$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.73	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd2b…9ff9backed Yes	2c	1,324$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	32	25%8 W · 24 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6124…204fbacked Yes	2c	1,287$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.78	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	+160.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes	4c	1,279$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.94	91	4.4%4 W · 87 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-30%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc394…0082backed Yes	5c	1,205$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.25	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-2.4wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x098c…e4e1backed Yes	6c	1,200$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74	98	16.3%16 W · 82 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	3c	1,090$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.76	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3df7…1c04backed Yes	3c	1,085$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	25	16%4 W · 21 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	5c	1,061$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.47	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x481c…51f5backed Yes	4c	1,002$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.59	25	8%2 W · 23 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-49.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf370…efe1backed Yes	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	52	17.3%9 W · 43 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	21cpaid	-51.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc0d…8bcabacked Yes	9c	1,000$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88	56	17.9%10 W · 46 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe26b…bee7backed Yes	4c	1,000$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	37	16.2%6 W · 31 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	5c	1,000$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0888…e6e3backed Yes	3c	1,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	154	13%20 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38b3…1e06backed Yes	3c	1,000$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	212	15.1%32 W · 180 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes	4c	1,000$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	138	9.4%13 W · 125 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f59…3a50backed Yes	4c	999.98$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	42	4.8%2 W · 40 L	-3.7wins	-0.09per pick	14cpaid	-58.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe717…d380backed Yes	1c	999.98$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc60d…8887backed Yes	4c	970.52$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.29	45	8.9%4 W · 41 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8974…bedebacked Yes	2c	951.97$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.99	72	33.3%24 W · 48 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	29cpaid	+42%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf32c…de99backed Yes	7c	951.04$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71	31	12.9%4 W · 27 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9314…6bd7backed Yes	3c	947.86$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.51	247	10.9%27 W · 220 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa2b…c35dbacked Yes	12c	899.99$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.4	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x986e…88d7backed Yes	2c	890$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.69	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-48.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	2c	844.06$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.17	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69bc…577dbacked Yes	3c	820.24$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	+0.7wins	+0.05per pick	27cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	3c	800$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6697…0721backed Yes	4c	795.45$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.78	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.23per pick	10cpaid	+170.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x026d…c112backed Yes	10c	783.6$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.07	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.08per pick	18cpaid	-87%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdef…1370backed Yes	6c	736.45$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.25	45	15.6%7 W · 38 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+16.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	4c	700$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.67	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x34a6…558bbacked Yes	8c	700$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.4	181	23.8%43 W · 138 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4fed…d914backed Yes	2c	669.64$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.85	57	15.8%9 W · 48 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-54.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa22f…c1d8backed Yes	4c	648.04$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-82.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2066…7841backed Yes	3c	606.08$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.45	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.7wins	+0.10per pick	4cpaid	+376.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes	8c	562.66$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1010…4ee1backed Yes	4c	524.09$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-0.8wins	-0.05per pick	11cpaid	-71.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f31…8cf3backed Yes	9c	522.45$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.17	65	18.5%12 W · 53 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	5c	514.61$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.17	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83e3…7a31backed Yes	10c	510.17$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe64f…6cc3backed Yes	4c	500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	23	47.8%11 W · 12 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	2c	500$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x404f…f2a1backed Yes	4c	500$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.97	43	9.3%4 W · 39 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-21%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b7b…a88dbacked Yes	14c	500$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.5	44	36.4%16 W · 28 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd975…5e9dbacked Yes	4c	499.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	27	14.8%4 W · 23 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf136…7c3cbacked Yes	6c	499.98$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	+63.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	3c	498.36$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.07	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event